COMMENTARY | Although there seems to be plenty of blame to go around in the inability to reach a compromise on something as important as ensuring the continuing operation of the federal government and the securing of all federal debt and maintaining legal obligations, there is nothing like the feeling that politics is being played at the expense of the good of the people.
In the current debt ceiling talks, those political games are apparent in the Republican intransigence to Democratic demands. There exists an overriding reason that Republicans are pushing the debt ceiling negotiations to the brink of government shutdown and default on its debt obligations -- that of blameworthiness.
Even though the blame-spouting and finger-pointing is a constant from both camps, Republicans know that they made a political blunder earlier in the year with the Paul Ryan 2012 budget, especially with its extremely unpopular attempt to restructure Medicare into a radically different system. Although the general public agrees that the overall program needs to be altered in some ways, Ryan's plan of a voucher system met with strong public disapproval.
Republicans are now being seen as a political party more in tune with the interests of the wealthy than with the other 97 percent of America. Their total refusal to allow the Bush era tax cuts or other revenue increasers (such as the elimination of corporate tax loopholes) only adds to the perception. A recent CBS News poll revealed that most Americans disapproved of the way Republicans were handling the debt crisis.
But as any good Republican strategist knows, if the GOP can shift the blame for the government shutdown and the subsequent defaulting on various federal loans (the debt ceiling has to be raised by an act of Congress in order for the U.S. Treasury to honor U.S. obligations, because the Treasury operates at a loss, where government expenditures exceed federal revenues, and needs to borrow money in which to maintain debt payments and regular federal operations), the "bad guys" image the Republicans have incurred in the past few months will transfer to the Democrats.
How would that be possible? Politics is an ever-shifting game of popularity, so, although Republicans are at present being seen as a group unwilling to compromise, they might be able to ultimately use it to their advantage.
The Democrats have offered trillions in fiscal and future spending cuts. In general, this is seen as a good thing by most, if only to bring down the cost of government and help reduce increased national debt. President Obama even offered cuts to the very popular and usually Democratically protected Social Security and Medicare programs. The latter, although not popular, is seen as willingness to compromise.
But Republicans have demanded more spending cuts and alterations to entitlement programs. They offer only their promise of raising the debt ceiling and avoiding a government shutdown of nonessential federal programs and services. They have again walked out of negotiations, this time with Speaker of the House John Boehner saying that he and the President have "different visions for our country."
But if Republicans remain intransigent and the Democrats cave to their demands, allow alterations to Social Security and Medicare (which polls say Americans do not want), and allow massive spending cuts to entitlement programs, the blame for changes in revered social programs and drastic cuts to federal spending will at least shift somewhat to Democrats as well. The GOP would no longer shoulder all the responsibility for tinkering with the social safety nets that generations have come to rely upon.
But if Democrats refuse to allow more spending cuts or to enter negotiations to further defund entitlement programs and/or alter Social Security and Medicare, then they, too, risk being seen by some as intransigent and unwilling to compromise (although the one-sidedness of the "compromise" might give the Democrats a little leeway). Their unwillingness to accede to tougher demands made by Republicans could then cause them to be considered by the public as the political party that caused the Republicans not to vote to raise the debt ceiling and subsequently allowed for the government to shut down and forego its debt obligations.
In short, Democrats could then be seen as the "bad guys."
And if Democrats are seen as blameworthy, they become vulnerable in the next election cycle. Republicans, who have seen themselves at a bit of a disadvantage for the last few months, could at least gain equal footing in the perception game. If blame and distrust can be predominantly shifted, the Party-endorsed Ryan Plan (even though it never had a chance of passage in the Democratically-controlled U. S. Senate) will become a thing quickly relegated to a political near miss. Democrats will be on the defensive, trying to explain to their constituents and the nation why they either caved to Republican demands or why they became complicit or caused a government shutdown and default.
Forcing Democrats to choose is dangerous brinksmanship at its best, unless, of course, Republicans have decided they are not bluffing. The hard stance, however, could easily backfire and leave the GOP perceived as the more blameworthy. And yet, it looks as if it is a chance Republican leaders are willing to take.
The deadline for a compromise to be reached on the debt ceiling without the government having to shut down at least some of its nonessential programs and services is Aug. 2. Afterward, the Treasury must then prioritize what obligations are paid on the revenue being brought in. Debt which is not paid will enter a state of default. It will be the first time in U. S. history that the federal government has not met its financial obligations.
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