The Deflategate Aftermath

The golden boy has some explaining to do.

Months after brushing off accusations of cheating, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was suspended four games Monday for his role in the now infamous Deflategate scandal. A four-game ban for “probably” deflating footballs is a bit steep, but commissioner Roger Goodell had to make an example out of Brady. With only circumstantial evidence to go on, the real reason Brady is facing such a harsh punishment is because he didn’t cooperate with the investigation. New England’s previous wrongdoings (see Spygate) probably didn’t help matters.

But whether you agree with it or not, one thing is certain: Brady will miss significant time next season. Right now the number stands at four games, but it could easily be lowered to two or three on appeal. The Patriots have had slow starts before (they won the Super Bowl after starting 2-2 this past season) so even if the offense turns to mush in Brady’s absence, it may not bury them. But if a team other than New England were to finally win the AFC East, this would be the year to do it. Brady’s month off essentially gives the Bills, Dolphins and Jets a four-game head start.

Let’s not feel too bad for the Patriots. Though they hoped never to use him, New England has a very capable backup in Jimmy Garoppolo. A mega-star on the FCS circuit, the 2014 second-round pick threw 53 touchdowns to only nine picks as a senior at Eastern Illinois. He broke three school records in 2013, eclipsing the marks of another quarterback who went on to have a pretty good career in the NFL, Tony Romo.

At 6’2” and 225 pounds, Garoppolo may not be a physical behemoth like Cam Newton, but he’s plenty big enough to succeed in the NFL. He’s right around the same size as last year’s NFL MVP, Aaron Rodgers.

Garoppolo didn’t wow anyone at the Combine with his 40-time (4.97) but he’s noticeably more athletic than his predecessor Brady. And like Brady, he has a quick release and puts good touch on the ball. In his first taste of NFL action, not counting a few meaningless cameos at the end of games, Garoppolo completed 10-of-17 passes for 90 yards against Buffalo in Week 17. He also scrambled four times for 16 yards. He didn’t throw any touchdowns or interceptions.

As polished as Garoppolo seems, he still has some kinks to work out. He was picked off regularly in college, throwing 13 or more interceptions in three of his four seasons at EIU. Many of those interceptions came on deep throws as Garoppolo has a tendency to put too much air on the ball.

That’s something Pats fans are used to by now. Brady, for all his accomplishments, hasn’t thrown the deep ball effectively in years. You could argue the best deep pass thrown by a Patriot last season was Julian Edelman’s missile to Danny Amendola in the AFC Divisional Round against Baltimore. New England hasn’t had a real home run threat since Randy Moss, so expect Garoppolo and the Pats to continue their tradition of nickel and diming their way up the field with short and intermediate passes. That plays well to Edelman’s skill set.

Coming from the FCS where the level of competition is much weaker, Garoppolo is still a bit of an unknown commodity. Though he won’t face many tough secondaries in his first four games (Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Dallas all struggled against the pass last season), the Patriots would be wise to lighten his workload.

The Pats did something similar when Matt Cassel filled in for Brady during the 2008 season. With Brady (torn ACL) lost for the season, New England made Cassel’s life easier by leaning heavily on the run. The difference in approach was obvious. After throwing on 56.5 percent of their offensive plays a year earlier, the Pats were far more balanced in 2008 (49 percent run, 51 percent pass).

All of this is good news for LeGarrette Blount, who figures to be the Patriots’ workhorse when he returns from suspension (marijuana arrest) in Week 2. Adam Levitan pointed out in a recent article that Blount has scored 16 touchdowns over his past 18 games with New England. That nose for the end zone makes him a must-own in fantasy.

In the past 24 hours I’ve seen Blount go as high as 78th and no lower than 92nd in Yahoo! mock drafts. His average draft position was 95.3, so he seems to have gotten a slight boost from Deflategate. New England figures to use some combination of Jonas Gray and Brandon Bolden in the backfield with Blount sidelined for Week 1.

Let’s not get carried away with Blount. Even at his peak of 78th overall, 26 running backs were drafted ahead of him. The reluctance is warranted. New England running backs have been fantasy poison in recent years because offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels insists on using a committee. No team in the league is more matchup dependent than the Patriots. Blount could get five carries one week and 30 the next. This fluctuation is why the Patriots are so tough to beat but also why they’re a nightmare for fantasy owners.

Luckily for Blount, the Pats didn’t re-sign Shane Vereen or Stevan Ridley and struck out with free agents Reggie Bush and Roy Helu. That leaves Blount with the backfield almost to himself, though Gray could play some role if his alarm clock works. Newcomer Travaris Cadet will fill Vereen’s role as the team’s passing down back but shouldn’t be a threat to Blount.

A key element of New England’s success has been their balance on offense. They get leads by shoving Edelman and Rob Gronkowski down the other team’s throat and milk the clock by running the ball in the fourth quarter. It’s a nice, stress-free way to play football.

Of course, it’s a lot easier to play that way when your starting quarterback is a surefire Hall of Famer who misses open passes about as often as Troy Polamalu cuts his hair. It would be irresponsible to assume Garoppolo will run New England’s offense as efficiently as Brady.

If Garoppolo struggles and the Patriots find themselves behind late in games, they’ll have to air it out in the fourth quarter. That means more looks for Edelman, Gronk and Brandon LaFell and fewer clock-burning carries for Blount.

Game flow is always tough to predict and something fantasy owners have a tendency to overthink. That’s why I’m fine taking Blount in the eighth or ninth round, even if the Patriots don’t ride him late in games.

But let’s get to the real reason you clicked on this article: what does the suspension mean for Brady’s fantasy value? It might be too early to tell but the most recent mock results suggest Brady won’t fall as far as you think.

Since the suspension, I’ve seen Brady picked 47th in one mock draft and 49th in another. His average draft position is 39.4 on Yahoo! so it looks like the ban only set him back one round. He’s still the sixth quarterback on most boards behind Andrew Luck, Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. He might have been behind those guys even without the suspension.

I get the feeling most mockers think Brady’s ban will be reduced on appeal, making him much less of a risk. Ironically, Garoppolo wasn’t drafted in either of the two mocks I observed. The fantasy-sphere still believes in Touchdown Tom.

Fantasy owners shouldn’t worry about Gronkowski or Edelman. Tim Tebow’s noodle arm could fling passes to Gronk and he’d still be a first-rounder. Similarly, Edelman remains a high volume target regardless of who’s playing quarterback.

This is still a Bill Belichick-coached team and New England boasts the league’s toughest red zone matchup in Gronkowski. Giving Brady, the ultimate chip-on-his-shoulder quarterback, bulletin board material is a scary thing. The Pats have survived worse than this. Let’s hope Goodell didn’t wake a sleeping giant.