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    The Week

    The economic recovery: Proof Obama's stimulus worked?

    By The Week's Editorial Staff | The Week – Wed, Feb 22, 2012
    After years of sputtering, the U.S. economy seems to be picking up steam. But Republicans say the president's policies have only gotten in the way

    With the Dow Jones Industrial Average topping 13,000 for the first time since 2008, confidence is growing that the economy is finally on the mend. And President Obama appears to be reaping the political benefits, with his rising favorability ratings improving his re-election prospects. Republican presidential candidates, however, insist that the economy is improving despite Obama's burdensome policies, like the $787 billion stimulus package, not because of them. How much credit can Obama take for the economy's climb?

    Obama's "ballyhooed" stimulus was an utter failure: The unemployment rate, which stood at 8.3 percent in January 2012, is literally unchanged from February 2009, says John Merline at Investor's Business Daily. There are now 5.5 million people who have been out of work for at least 27 months, up 83 percent from when Obama took office. And the civilian labor force has shrunk by 126,000 since Obama's inauguration. "In past recoveries, the labor force climbed an average of more than 3 million over comparable time periods." Obama's economic policies simply haven't delivered.
    "Obama stimulus turns three: What has it achieved?"

    Nonsense. The stimulus was integral to the recovery: Look, says Derek Thompson at The Atlantic. We'll never know with "utter certainty" whether the stimulus truly worked because "we can't compare this world, where the stimulus happened, to a make-believe world where it didn't happen." But if we objectively look at the data, "we can say with reasonable certainty that the stimulus did support growth, prevent layoffs, and make the economy better." And by most any measure — whether's it's real GDP or job growth — the "economic turnaround coincided with the passing of the stimulus." Give Obama credit.
    "The stimulus absolutely, positively worked, no doubt about it, probably"

    But the economy might not be recovering at all: "Employers are hiring, manufacturing is revving up, and stocks are rallying," says Annalyn Censky at CNN. But that doesn't mean a true recovery is upon us. A showdown with Iran could push gas prices to $4 or $5 a gallon this spring. Job cuts by cash-strapped states and other public agencies are a continued drag on the economy. (Remember, "the government is the largest employer in the country.") And the "escalating European debt crisis" could level the still-feeble U.S. and global economy. Clearly, we aren't "on the path to a sustained recovery" quite yet.
    "Economy in recovery? Not so fast"

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    72 comments

    • Adam
      Adam  •  Seoul, South Korea  •  3 mths ago
      And therein lies the problem, we can't make a parallel world simulator where we could see the other side of "what if?".
      • Carol
        Carol 3 mths ago
        Becareful who you choose. We are at a tipping point with 200 Trillion of Tax liabilities and and less than 113 Million Taxpayers!

        The govt is borrowing 50 cents of every dollar they spend, When interest rates
        rise again they'll need to borrow 80 cents. How is your household run if its on credit cardsyou have seen your friends lose their homes, cars, all their monies.

        Obama just added another 1.4 Trilllion to our burdens last month. Yet he says he'll take 1 Trillion off in 10 years...not good enough! While the Federal Reserve send 103 Billion dollars to the European Centeral Bank for Greece. We need those
        funds here!

        Santorum will take off 5 Trillion over 5 years but his only plan is to privatize Medicare.

        Newt has an elephant on his back with Freddie Mac and the housing disaster. He lobbyed the halls of Congress while being paid by Freddie to take care of their interests.

        Romney is Mr. Corporate America. He sent jobs out of the country in the past and I
        doubt he will change his stripes! We need 20 Million jobs as we have actual unemployment of 23+ Million our of work!

        All the candidates except 1 will give you Status Quo! Ron Paul was the only
        candidate with a viable plan. End the Wars bring the troups home! We have floating
        bases in the form of Aircraft Carriers why not close the ones in foreign countries
        and use the monies here. We have students carrying nearly 1 trillion dollars in loans
        guaranteed by the govt. Ron Paul wants them to have tax credits yearly in repayment.
        Those loans can not be discharged in bankrutcy. Close Depts of the govt that run year after year in red ink. Why do we need an Energy Dept when we have over 100 years of Natural Gas cost less and his cleaner to the environment. Or Give tax credits to oil companies that make Mega Bucks in profits.
    • Windriver
      Windriver  •  3 mths ago
      Can someone tell me which summer was the Obama Recovery Summer?
      • MarcD
        MarcD 3 mths ago
        The summer of 2012. Oh god, please let it be 2012. My re-election is depending on it!
      • Windriver
        Windriver 3 mths ago
        Too little, too late! But funny answer!
      • spinning_left
        spinning_left 3 mths ago
        The country and the economy have been in decline for 40+years !
    • Patrick F
      Patrick F  •  Cranbury, New Jersey  •  3 mths ago
      I would believe these types of claims if they connected the dots. Passing a stimulus, observing that the economy improves, and claiming the stimulus caused it does not prove that the stimulus did it.
      • HeyZeus!
        HeyZeus! 3 mths ago
        You are talking about finding proof of causation rather than correlation.

        It is impossible in such a complex system to find direct causation. If you read the article, they state the recovery might not be a true one. Not because of failed policies, but because of a showdown with Iran.

        What you can know is that the economy was making a downturn under the previous adminstration. This recession is now the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression.

        Of course it is going to take more time to climb out of it. The US only climbed out of the Great Depression due to WWII, and I sure do not want a WWIII.
      • Brenda S
        Brenda S 3 mths ago
        We sit on the brink right now, and the Admin. is clueless
      • spinning_left
        spinning_left 3 mths ago
        You really want to talk about who's clueless,one thing for sure,the republican policies did nothing to enable a stable economy,and you want to give them complete control?
    • bil
      bil  •  3 mths ago
      Due to massive government meddling in the housing market, prices were driven way too high. Housing prices crashed, and the economy lost a whoop o'jobs. Neither the housing market or the jobs market has recovered. The $6T of deficit spending has kept the federal workforce highly paid.
      • BenGleck
        BenGleck 3 mths ago
        Teachers, police and first responders were also helped, as well as people on unemployment, not just the "federal workforce". YOU LIE, SLIMEBAG!!!!!
      • bil
        bil 3 mths ago
        El, most of the deadwood at the state and local levels have been let go since the federal money dried up. The unemployment tax is mostly state funded and unless you are aware of a bunch of federal money the rest of us aren't, I will stick to my comments.
    • A Real American
      A Real American  •  3 mths ago
      Can't wait till the new president starts in 2013 and we can spend the next 4 years blaming everything bad on Obama and crediting everything good to the new president.
    • Windriver
      Windriver  •  3 mths ago
      Obama doubles down on STUPID and shows his total disregard for responsibility!
      Takes credit for increased domestic oil supplies and denies responsibility for high gas prices. "President Obama does not "accept responsibility" for high gas prices, his spokesman indicated today"
      • Petra
        Petra 3 mths ago
        you are so borring. By now everyboby knows you hate the guy, so just say it and leave it with that.
      • Windriver
        Windriver 3 mths ago
        I don't hate like you do Petra. I don't even hate you as you do me.
      • spinning_left
        spinning_left 3 mths ago
        I don't hate you,just pointless to argue with your stupidity and ignorance
    • HAL 9000
      HAL 9000  •  3 mths ago
      the government is the largest employer in the country. the largest employer in the country. the largest.
    • will
      will  •  Bangkok, Thailand  •  3 mths ago
      Due to current economic conditions the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off !
    • MarcD
      MarcD  •  3 mths ago
      If the stimulus is what's improved the economy, then why not the Republican extension of the tax cuts?
    • Bracketology
      Bracketology  •  3 mths ago
      The govt has been buying these small increases in GDP for 3 years now.
    • R Young
      R Young  •  3 mths ago
      show me social security funds replaced and not dwindled away first before you ask another stupid question on how well he is recovering the interest of the country, tie goverments retirement plan into social securtiy and see how quickly they take it seriuosly and try and fix it,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
    • Windriver
      Windriver  •  3 mths ago
      "The amount of income tax paid fell sharply last month in the first formal indication that the new 50p higher rate is not raising the expected amount of revenue.
      The Treasury received £10.35 billion in income tax payments from those paying by self-assessment last month, a drop of £509 million compared with January 2011. Most other taxes produced higher revenues over the same period. "

      We should or should not follow this model?
    • Tone
      Tone  •  3 mths ago
      The only thing we are recovering from is the delusion that anyone in the stratosphere gives a crap about those of us on the ground.
    • rbtrage
      rbtrage  •  Sunnyvale, California  •  3 mths ago
      We lost 1.2 million job seekers just last month. So, how many people will drop out of the workforce this month?
    • will
      will  •  Bangkok, Thailand  •  3 mths ago
      Everywhere I look, things are getting worse, not better or ( recovering ) like the propaganda dept, tells us . My home sold for under half its worth just so I could unload it . Gas prices are climbing faster than food and I know more people without jobs than I do with now ! We are slowly becoming a police state and losing our liberty and constitution . We are bankrupt from wars and policing the world and this is better ? RON PAUL 2012 , HELP
    • Rick Sr
      Rick Sr  •  3 mths ago
      We keep getting told the economy is improving. How many of you have actually noticed a positive change?
    • just me
      just me  •  3 mths ago
      1/3 of the store fronts in my town are empty, 1 more closing this week after 26 yrs in business. No new jobs here and state taxes went up across the board. No raise in 4 yrs. and everything costs more. This is better?
    • Windriver
      Windriver  •  3 mths ago
      A while back I posted that individuals will pay $400 more in Federal income tax this year than last because we lost the Making Work Pay credit. That means Obama raised your taxes. Many Obama sycophants disagreed and twisted themselves into knots trying to say it was not a tax INCREASE! Here is what Obama said the other day about the continuation of the payroll tax cut. I am GLAD Obama is supporting my contention that he HAS RAISED YOUR TAXES. "Mr. Obama said. “You made it clear you wanted to see some common sense in Washington, and because you did, no Americans are going to see their taxes go up, and that’s good news.”

      Joe Wilson was RIGHT AGAIN! OBAMA LIES!
    • Windriver
      Windriver  •  3 mths ago
      "Florida Drivers Shelling Out Nearly $6 A Gallon At Some Gas Stations"

      Bush's fault!
    • A Real American
      A Real American  •  3 mths ago
      What are the odds we'll see a counterpoint to this blather?
     Post a comment

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