The Edge: Rubio and the Romney Effect
The Edge is National Journal's daily look at today in Washington -- and what's coming next. The email features analysis from NJ's top correspondents, the biggest stories of the day -- and always a few surprises. To subscribe, click here.
Rubio and the Romney Effect
If she ever decides to run, Hillary Rodham Clinton could have the clearest path to both the Democratic nomination and the White House of any candidate in either party in recent memory. That's partly because she's way above the rest of the Democratic field in popularity, but it's also because any Republican candidate, in order to both get nominated and win, is going to have to travel a nearly impossible path.
Call it the Romney effect. Republican candidates appear to have to swing so far right to appease the tea-party-beholden base that they often lose the majority, and they sow mistrust with all that flip-flopping. Exhibit A right now is Sen. Marco Rubio's lurch back toward the right over Obamacare, following months of playing the reasonable card on immigration. Now even seniors are souring on the GOP.
National Republican strategists are justifiably worried about the direction of the party. But as long as the GOP's least-common-denominator policies are determined at the House district level—where few people worry about anything other than the next two years—the White House is going to look more and more remote.
Michael Hirsh
mhirsh@nationaljournal.com
TOP NEWS
HOLDER ANNOUNCES PLAN TO LESSEN MANDATORY MINIMUM SENTENCING. Attorney General Eric Holder announced new rules today designed to reduce prison populations by not pursuing charges that impose severe mandatory minimum sentences on low-level, nonviolent drug offenders who are unaffiliated with gangs, The Washington Post reports. Holder unveiled a prison-reform package that also includes policies to reduce sentences for nonviolent elderly inmates and additional alternatives to prison for nonviolent offenders. "A vicious cycle of poverty, criminality and incarceration traps too many Americans and weakens too many communities," Holder said. "However, many aspects of our criminal justice system may actually exacerbate these problems rather than alleviate them." Some of Holder's reforms can be implemented by the Justice Department, while others will require congressional action. Read more
Holder's move against mandatory minimums is an issue Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., has been advocating for a long time, and today's announcement is unquestionably a positive political development for the possible 2016 presidential candidate, The Post's Aaron Blake writes. Read more
JUDGE: STOP-AND-FRISK TACTICS VIOLATE RIGHTS. A federal judge ruled today that the New York Police Department's stop-and-frisk methods violate the constitutional rights of minorities, The New York Times reports. The judge, in determining that police officers have been stopping innocent people--often young, minority males--on the street without appropriate cause to suspect wrongdoing, and frisking them for weapons or drugs, requested a federal monitor make sure broad reforms take place. "I also conclude that the city's highest officials have turned a blind eye to the evidence that officers are conducting stops in a racially discriminatory manner," Judge Shira Scheindlin wrote. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg responded to the ruling with a pledge to appeal. Read more
ISRAEL TO FREE 26 PALESTINIAN PRISONERS THIS WEEK. The Israeli government said today that it will release 26 Palestinian prisoners this week as part of the U.S.-backed deal to resume peace talks, Reuters reports. The deal calls for a total of 104 Palestinians to be released. Many Palestinians, however, are unimpressed because of recent plans Israel announced to expand some of its settlements in the West Bank, a move condemned by a European Union spokesman as "illegal under international law," and one that threatens to "make a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict impossible." Some Israelis also greeted the news of freed prisoners unfavorably. Read more
EMBASSIES REOPEN AS YEMEN REMAINS ON HIGH ALERT. U.S. embassies and consulates in the Middle East resumed operations on Sunday, two weeks after communications between senior al-Qaida operatives detailing a potential terrorism strike were intercepted by the Obama administration, The New York Times reports. The embassy in Sanaa, Yemen, remains closed, however, even as nine drone strikes since July 28 have targeted suspected terrorist cells in the country and killed about three dozen militants. But counterterrorism officials are not certain those attacks have been entirely effective. One senior official said the recent threat "expanded the scope of people we could go after" in Yemen. Read more
BULGER FOUND GUILTY ON 31 COUNTS RELATED TO GANGLAND KILLINGS. James "Whitey" Bulger was convicted by a federal jury today on 31 of 32 counts related to 11 killings and other gang-related crimes, The Boston Globe reports. Bulger, 83, showed no reaction when the verdict was announced. He was charged with racketeering, an offense that listed 33 criminal acts, including 19 murders that he is said to have organized or carried out personally in the 1970s and '80s, when he led Boston's Winter Hill Gang. The jury deliberated for four and a half days before reaching their decision, which likely means Bulger will spend the rest of his life in prison. Read more
PRESIDENT TO VETERANS: 'WE ARE MAKING PROGRESS.' President Obama addressed the Disabled American Veterans Convention in Orlando on Saturday, Politico reports. The president assured veterans of the administration's commitment to reducing the backlog in disability claims, and touted efforts to improve mental health treatment and to help veterans to achieve their educational and professional goals. "Today I can report that we are not where we need to be, but we are making progress," the president said. "So after years when the backlog kept growing, finally the backlog is shrinking." Read more
MORSI PROTESTERS PREPARE FOR IMMINENT CRACKDOWN. Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi are continuing to refuse to leave their protest camps in Cairo and said today that they would fight back against police attempting to force their removal, Reuters reports. Authorities had said Sunday that they would begin dismantling the camps at dawn, though no action has taken place yet, indicating police again postponed an announced effort to end the two sit-ins that have contributed to the tense standoff between Islamist supporters of Morsi and those who rallied successfully for his ouster six weeks ago. Read more
IS IT 2016 ALREADY? IN IOWA, IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK THAT WAY. More than two years before any party primaries are to start, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., visited Iowa this weekend, helping to fuel speculation about the 2016 presidential election, The Wall Street Journal reports. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, also a Republican, was in the state a week earlier. While Democrats, ostensibly awaiting a decision from former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, have been less overt with their pre-campaign campaigning in Iowa, news over the weekend that Vice President Joe Biden will attend Sen. Tom Harkin's annual steak fry did turn some heads. Read more
Biden is filling a vacuum created by Clinton's relatively low profile lately despite rampant speculation about her 2016 ambitions, The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza and Sean Sullivan write. Read more
MORE U.S. EXPATS RENOUNCING CITIZENSHIP OVER TAX LAWS. Over 1,000 U.S. citizens have renounced their citizenship in the first half of this year, and attorneys cite the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, or FATCA, as a primary reason, The Wall Street Journal reports. FATCA was designed to prevent tax evasion by establishing strict guidelines for the disclosure of overseas assets held by American citizens and green-card holders. But many of those expats complain that the system requires too much paperwork and is unduly onerous. "I'm not an ultrawealthy dude," said an investment banker of his own renunciation. "It was the hassle with all the paperwork." With more citizenship renunciations in the first half of 2013 than in all of 2012, the year is projected to set a record. Read more
UNPOPULAR OUTSIDE THE CITY, SPITZER LEADS IN POLLS. Former New York Gov.Eliot Spitzer is not well liked in the state, but as of late July he led polling in the race for New York City comptroller, and may actually win, The Washington Post reports. Although 60 percent of New York State voters view the comeback efforts of Spitzer and former Rep. Anthony Weiner as "embarrassing" for the state, he retains support among New York City voters for two reasons: His funding and name recognition are superior to those of Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer. Read more
TOMORROW
HANDLING THE AFTERMATH OF WAR. The Henry L. Stimson Center will hold a discussion on "Between War and Peace: Do We Need New Tools For Messy Transitions?" at 9:30 a.m. at 1111 9th Street NW. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction Stuart Bowen Jr. and former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Partnership Strategy and Stability Operations James Schear are scheduled to participate.
QUOTABLE
"I thank God every night in my nightly prayers for giving me the insight to decide in 2006 not to seek reelection." —Former Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y. (National Journal Daily)
BEDTIME READING
ONE WORD AT A TIME. After David Hilfiker, 68, was diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease last September, he responded in a way that some might find odd, Mashable's Bonnie Wertheim reports: He started a blog to chronicle his experiences. "I'm a bit of an exhibitionist," Hilfiker said of his decision, but he's not alone. Kris Bakowski, a 57-year-old from Athens, Ga., was diagnosed when she was 46, and has been blogging since 2003. Hilfiker and Bakowski are out to counter what they view as widespread misconceptions about the disease, but Hilfiker is uncomfortable with the suggestion that his blog is helping others. "I don't quite look upon what I'm doing as helping people," he said. "It's more about trying to live responsibly in an interconnected world." Read more
REALITY CHECK
BOOMERS DRIVING GROWTH IN THE DISTRICT. Washington's newfound growth owes in large part to an influx of older people, Kaid Benfield, director of the Sustainable Communities program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, writes in the The Atlantic Cities. Even as the metropolitan area experienced steady population growth over six of the last seven decades, the "central city" contracted. The now-booming District lost 29 percent of its population between 1950 and 2000, dropping from a high of 802,178 residents to just 572,059. The city's population was estimated at 632,323 in 2012, a 10-percent increase from 2000. The demographic trend is part of a national phenomenon, in which baby boomers move from far-flung suburbs to within five miles of a city's core. Read more
CHART OF THE DAY
TEXAS WILL STAY RED FOR A WHILE. A new group, Battleground Texas, aims to turn the Lone Star State into a Democratic stronghold by boosting voter registration and turnout among Latinos, but this is unlikely to happen in the near future, The New Republic's Nate Cohn writes. Eight charts detail the reasons that a Democratic presidential contender would struggle to win Texas, including the disparity between the total Latino population and the ranks of eligible and actual voters. See it here
