The U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts is coming down to the wire, and both candidates have something to bolster their hopes in two new polls released over the weekend. Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican Senator Scott Brown both lay claim to the lead, splitting two polls between them. But Warren still has the advantage, tallying a larger lead, and maintaining an average lead in recent polls.
In a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP), Warren led Brown by six points, 52-46 percent. The survey, conducted Nov. 1-2, polled 1,089 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3 percent. According to the polling numbers, the difference between the candidates lies with independents. Warren enjoys the support of 84 percent of Democrats, and Brown scores 88 percent of Republicans. While Brown leads Warren with Massachusetts independent voters by a handy 59-38 percent, he defeated Attorney General Martha Coakley by a 64-32 percent margin in 2010. That shift could be the difference maker in the election.
In a statement released with the poll, Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, said "In August polling found (Warren) trailing in (this) New England Senate race. But Elizabeth Warren (has) closed strongly and appears to be in a safe position for victory, which will go a long way toward helping the party keep its majority."
The other weekend poll, conducted in conjunction by the University of Massachusetts-Lowell and the Boston Herald, found Brown with a one point edge over Warren, 49-48 percent. The poll, conducted between Oct. 31-Nov. 3, surveyed 800 likely voters with a 4.1 percent margin of error. As indicated by the PPP poll, the election appears to hinge on the independent voters. Brown again was considered more favorably by independents than Warren, 58-39 percent, but Warren has improved 4 percent with independents in the poll since September.
Despite the split polls, Warren still has an average lead according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Average. Warren has an average lead of 3.5 percent over Brown in polls of the race taken in the last two weeks. Momentum appears to be on her side. Out of 19 polls taken since September, Brown has only won three of them, and tied in two others.
- Political Polls
- Elizabeth Warren