Evangelicals on the Rise

Here's good news for the religious-issues wielding Rick Santorum: Evangelical voters have never been more influential in a Republican presidential primary. 

An analysis conducted by the Faith and Freedom Coalition found the Born-Again Christian vote accounted for half the total electorate in the 2012 GOP presidential primary, the highest total recorded in the modern era. Evangelicals have constituted 50.53 percent of this year's vote, according to 16 exit and entrance polls taken during the primary, compared to just 44 percent in 2008.

Most states have seen the spike in participation. Ohio's evangelical vote, for instance, increased from 44 percent four years ago to 47 percent this time. South Carolina saw a four-point jump, from 60 percent to 64 percent. 

Clearly, in an election that was ostensibly going to focus entirely on the economy, evangelical voters have played a bigger role than ever. They care about jobs like everyone else, but their participation is proof that the issues they care about – whether abortion or religious freedom – remain a critical component of any candidate's pitch.

"The conventional wisdom going into this election was that the issues that motivate these voters weren't going to be much of a factor in the election," said Ralph Reed, the coalition's chairman and a longtime Republican strategist. "And I think that conventional wisdom, as is often the case, is not going to be right." Read more

—Alex Roarty

NATIONAL JOURNAL’S PRIMARY REPORT

Santorum’s Progress in GOP Race is Historic 
[National Journal, 3/16/12] Dual victories in Alabama and Mississippi this week don’t change the fact that Santorum remains an underdog in the race. But his candidacy is already historically significant: Santorum has already won more contests than any challenger to the GOP establishment since conservative icon Ronald Reagan in 1976.

Santorum Campaign Still Dealing with Puerto Rico Statehood Backlash
[National Journal, 3/16/12] The Santorum camp was still dealing on Friday with fallout from the Republican candidate's comments on Puerto Rican statehood, asserting that he never meant to say residents should be required to speak English before their island territory can become a state.

Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño Differs With Romney, Santorum NEW!
[ABC News, 3/16/12] Although he endorsed Romney’s campaign before the Florida primary, the governor of Puerto Rico differs with the former Massachusetts governor on several issues, including the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor. He also disagrees with Santorum on requiring English as the official language of the island.

Gingrich On Chance He’ll Drop Out Before Tampa: ‘Probably None.’  
[National Journal, 3/16/12] Despite increasing calls from some Republicans for him to get out of the race, Gingrich continued to insist on Friday that he will remain battling all the way to the convention in Tampa this summer.

Basement in Romney’s New Mansion Bigger Than Entire Mansion He Tore Down NEW!
[Talking Points Memo, 3/16/12] According to the plans for Romney's new home in today’s Wall Street Journal, the underground space will be 3,600 square foot. That's 600 square feet bigger than the entire mansion that the Romneys are replacing.

Romney's Lousy Poker Face
[National Journal, 3/15/12] Romney and his campaign have fallen into a pattern of backing into states where he wasn’t expected to do well, ramping up the effort when it looked like things might break his way, and then downplaying the results when things don’t work out.  National Journal’s Beth Reinhard writes that the expectations game doesn’t work for a front-runner.

In Suddenly Crucial Illinois, Romney Moves Up Campaigning …
[Chicago Tribune, 3/15/12] Romney has moved up plans to campaign in Illinois to Friday, underscoring the importance of the state’s Tuesday primary, where 54 delegates are at stake. Romney again faces a critical battle in a state that once seemed assuredly his, but today’s Illinois GOP is not what it used to be. Maybe New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie campaigning can help.

… And Ramps Up Spending
[Wall Street Journal, 3/15/12] With the GOP race neck and neck ahead of Illinois’ Tuesday primary, Romney’s campaign and allies are making large advertising buys. To drive suburban voters to the polls, Romney and a super PAC backing him have spent $3.4 million so far in the state.

California Could Decide the GOP Nominee 
[Washington Post, 3/15/12] California is not exactly the GOP’s idea of home turf, but the state’s June 5 primary is looking more and more like it may determine whether Romney can win the Republican nomination or whether the party goes to its August convention without a nominee.

DNC Slams Romney: 'Wrong for Women, Wrong for Illinois'
[Chicago Sun-Times, 3/16/12] As the Republican presidential candidates make their way to the Land of Lincoln, the DNC is going after their positions on women’s issues. Romney has tried to make an appeal to moderate Republicans and independents in the state, a key constituency Democrats do not want to lose.

Opinion: Can Santorum beat Romney in Illinois? 
[Chicago Tribune, 3/16/12] Santorum proved that he can win in the South with his victories in Alabama and Mississippi. The question now is: Can he win the North? Illinois could prove that he can. As the Tribune’s Peter Morici writes, Santorum has great appeal to farmers and blue-collar voters, like he proved in Ohio.

Santorum Turns to Secretive Group For Money Muscle
[Politico, 3/16/12] Santorum may have found his best shot at both cash and organization in a secretive club of some of the right’s richest and most powerful players. Its members have been credited with solidifying the rise of George W. Bush and working to undercut the 2008 bids of Romney and Rudy Giuliani.

Early Glimpse of Missouri Caucuses Show Support For Santorum  
[New York Times, 3/16/12] For weeks, the Romney camp has argued that Santorum’s victory in the Missouri primary was meaningless because no delegates were awarded. But an early glimpse into the arduous process of formally electing delegates in the race, which is unfolding across Missouri, shows support for Santorum.

GOP Enthusiasm Has Fallen Steeply Since 2008
[National Journal, 3/15/12] Recent polls show that Republicans are less enthusiastic about having Romney or Santorum as their potential presidential nominee than they were four years ago about Sen. John McCain. The lackluster numbers are a worrying sign that the GOP’s bitter primary fight has already sapped voter enthusiasm, leaving the party weakened for a fall fight against Obama.

Gingrich Resets His 'Vision' Message on the Stump in Illinois
[Chicago Tribune, 3/15/12] Gingrich said on the stump yesterday that he was “resetting” his campaign after two disappointing losses to Santorum in the South. Speaking in the affluent Chicago suburb of Lake in the Hills, Ill., he said he wanted to fine-tune his campaign, paraphrasing the Bible: “Without vision, the people perish.”

Rick Santorum Would Fight 'Pandemic' of Porn NEW!
[ABC News, 3/16/12] Santorum has brought a new social issue to the forefront: pornography. On his website, Santorum now notes that the U.S. is suffering from the “pandemic” of porn, saying that it destroys marriages and promotes violence against women.

What a Cub Political Reporter Learned From Her Elders: Not Much
[National Journal, 3/15/12] Over the past six months, the GOP nominating contest has defied logic and precedent: Time and time again, the veterans and conventional wisdom have been wrong. National Journal’s Naureen Khan takes you through several instances in this year’s race where precedent failed us.

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