Experts Give Global Leaders A 'C' for Managing Crises
Wow! The Council on Foreign Relations must be grading the handling of global crises on a curve.
With much of the Middle East at war or in ruins, global warming on the rise, scary North Korea adding to its nuclear arsenal and a general sense that things are coming apart at the seams, the CFR’s Council of Council’s has just awarded a Gentleman’s C to the world community for how leaders have addressed major challenges in the past year.
Their latest survey asked the heads of twenty-six major international policy institutes or think tanks to evaluate international efforts on ten of the most important issues in 2014: the global economy, nuclear nonproliferation, climate change, development, global health, trade, cyber governance, transnational terrorism, and both conflict both within countries and between countries.
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"Every era is characterized by a dominant threat to order, and for this era it comes from challenges that are global by nature," CFR President Richard N. Haass said in a statement accompanying the document. "This report card identifies the areas in which cooperation is most needed and can produce the greatest results."
To be clear, the findings are relatively subjective, based on these experts familiarity with global events and issues and backed up by some relevant data for 2014.
The Ongoing Threat of Terrorism
Global cooperation on eight of the ten key issues received what the Council on Foreign Relations experts deemed “mediocre” grades of between C- and C+, noting that needed multi-national action is “sorely lacking.” But, hey, to an untrained eye, those grades look pretty good, in light of what the Council cites as rampant hunger and poverty, mass forced migration of refugees across borders in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia, bigotry and the destruction of priceless religious and cultural relics.
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If you think about it, a C- for combatting transnational terrorism last year is pretty good considering the rise of ISIS, a 30 percent increase in deaths from terrorism, the flow of thousands of foreign fighters into Syria, and the rampant slaughter, enslavement, beheadings and crucifying of innocent civilians.
The report seems to have given a vote of confidence to the U.S. and its European and Middle Eastern allies in waging war on terrorism. Even so, the experts note, the capture of large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria by ISIS is “most concerning,” largely because of the weak multilateral response to Syria’s civil war that has allowed the ISIS jihadists to consolidate power.
“Although a U.S.-led coalition prevented ISIS from seizing more territory, it struggled to roll back the group’s gains,” the report states. “In Nigeria, the Boko Haram Islamist fundamentalist organization pledged allegiance to ISIS and adopted its strategy of territorial consolidation. The group murdered over 4,500 civilians in 2014 as the weak Nigerian military struggled to contain the group’s expansion in northeast Nigeria.”
Climate Change
While 2014 was the hottest year on record, the study gave global efforts to combat climate change a C+. Some countries took unprecedented steps, including the climate agreement struck last November by the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest emitters of carbon dioxide.
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Nonetheless, global efforts remained inadequate given the potentially catastrophic consequences of global warming, the report said. “Without further reductions in carbon emissions, a rise in global temperatures threatens to upset food, water, and energy security,” the experts insisted.
The lowest grade, a D, was given for international efforts to prevent and respond to intrastate (between two states) violence. Here the majority of participants in the survey cited Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea and ongoing tensions in Ukraine as a primary concern.
“The most urgent priority is to defuse the risk of great power conflict," said Ferdinando Nelli Feroci, head of Italy’s Institute of International Affairs, who took part in the study.
Still, a D is a passing grade.
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Nuclear Nonproliferation
The highest grade, a B-, went to nuclear nonproliferation efforts. That reflects progress in containing Iran’s nuclear weapons development program during 2014, which – after repeated missed deadlines -- led to a tentative framework between Iran, the U.S. and five other countries April 2 in Lausanne, Switzerland.
"The unprecedented sanctions regime against Iran demonstrated that resolved, unified international action on the economic front can bring about significant diplomatic achievements," said Amos Yadlin, director of the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. "2014 gave a good demonstration that nuclear proliferation can be effectively prevented," he added.
Yet negotiators still have a way to go to cut a final deal by June 30, the latest deadline, for a final agreement to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon for at least the coming decade. Meanwhile, there are approximately 16,300 nuclear weapons worldwide – a situation that is less than comforting – especially with North Korea likely to try to expand its nuclear and missile programs.
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