Fantasy Basketball Mailbag
The preseason is underway! Last night, we saw the first action with the Clippers hosting the Nuggets. Before we get to the mailbag, let’s just go over some key things from Friday:
The first thing is how much we don’t know about the Clippers rotation yet. Last night, we learned that Josh Smith is going to play almost all power forward with some center mixed in, too. Another thing is that Paul Pierce did play some four, so I think DeAndre Jordan is likely going to be the only true center in the rotation. DJ looked great with 15 points, 12 boards and three blocks. I’m not quite buying him being a bigger part of the offense and only expect him to score 13 points per game. The other thing is Lance Stephenson didn’t look great, but there’s almost no way he was due for a big season anyway. He also had an on-air F bomb, so the NBA season is BACK!
It’s Emmanuel Mudiay’s team. He put up a Russell Westbrook-like usage rate at 31.9 last night and that number spiked to 49.3(!!!) in his nine fourth-quarter minutes. His stat line was 14 points, two rebounds, three assists, one steal, three 3-pointers and eight turnovers. Yikes on those TOs and he was 5-of-18 from the field.
He really, really ran the offense and had the ball in his hands a lot. Mudiay ran a little bit with everything with isolation, PNR, and even hitting a pull-up three in transition. Of course, we have to love hearing that and it absolutely gives him a high upside. The problem is he really looked like a rookie and he kind of padded his stats in the second half while Chris Paul was on the bench. I’d still shy away in nine-cat, but he’s sneaking inside the top 100 with his high upside. To be clear, I don't expect his usage rate to be over 24 because Danilo Gallinari didn't play.
The Nuggets really shouldn’t play J.J. Hickson. HIs defense is just not good and you’d think coach Mike Malone will pull the plug on him soon. Here’s a vine of how lost J.J. was on an alley-oop.
Oh and he fouled DJ on another alley-oop here:
Not good. If Hickson does get the boot, that bodes really well for Nikola Jokic, who scored 14 points on 6-of-8 shooting with eight rebounds, one steal and one block in 23 minutes. His offensive game looked phenomenal in Las Vegas and he definitely had the energy last night. Jokic did get pushed around a bit, but that’s OK because he is quick enough to face up and has the range to be a stretch four. His defensive footwork is pretty solid, too. Jokic is definitely on the radar in 16-team leagues. If Hickson is booted, we might see him in the standard league convo. This is also good news for Jusuf Nurkic. He's a terrific high-upside player late.
Joffrey Lauvergne looked great, scoring 16 points with 11 rebounds and one turnover on 7-of-10 from the field. He isn’t a great defender and he struggled in a big way against even mediocre defenders last year. He also wasn’t too good at EuroLeague or Summer League. I’d take Jokic over him in a deep league. Don’t forget Danilo Gallinari and Jusuf Nurkic didn’t play.
Oh and the Clippers uniforms are just as bad in games. Blake disagrees. "I wasn’t like, ‘Oh, they’re awesome’ or ‘Oh, they’re terrible.’ They’re just uniforms,” he said.
Let’s get to the questions. I didn’t really get a lot of cool questions about rotations except for the first one. Plus, most of these are already addressed in the Draft Guide. You can download it right here!
Follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for stats, analysis, Vines and a lot more. Not many 🔥 takes, though.
@Cee59 @MikeSGallagher Why are the Magic so bad defensively? Dipo, Gordon, Payton were all excellent on D in NCAA. Should be average overall
The Magic came in at 25th for defensive efficiency rating while they were in the lower half of the NBA for pace. So where did they really struggle? Let’s take a look.
Their worst part of the defensive side was in transition. They were dead last in the NBA for points per transition possession and it wasn’t even close. You can probably chalk that up to them being so young while their older guys just aren’t athletic to help out in the open floor.
They were also really, really bad in pick-and-roll, coming in just 0.01 below the last-ranked Clippers for the roll-man scoring based on points per possession. They were also seventh-worst on PNR ball handler defense. If you can’t stop teams in transition or in PNR, you’re toasty like Mortal Kombat II... Yep. Went there.
Another big problem is Payton. He was really bad in isolation defense and well below average on PNR defense. He’s young and you’d think Skiles would be able to help him understand some defensive concepts. Well, the Magic are making it very clear they want to be better on defense. Coach Scott Skiles is really focusing on that end based on some quotes in the past week of so. Here are some highlights from a great column on their official site right here:
``We started off with defense and (Skiles) did a good amount of teaching, explaining and going through a lot,’’ Vucevic said. ``He put the defensive stuff in that we’re going to do and he told us to do those things regardless of what the outcome is (on a certain possession). He believes in it (his defensive system) and he wants guys to trust it. … He wants us to believe in (this defensive system), do it over and over again and not try to do our own thing.’’
``I played against a lot of his teams and those Chicago teams and Milwaukee teams were definitely tough,’’ said Magic power forward Channing Frye, a veteran of nine NBA seasons. ``Those guys loved playing for him and they got better, so I’m excited about that happening here.’’
I’d guess that the Magic being so bad in transition should help a freak like Aaron Gordon get minutes. He graded out really well on the play types with the exception of stopping the ball handler in a PNR and on spot-up — that won’t happen a lot. Besides Gordon, we should see a little less Evan Fournier and plenty of breakout candidate Victor Oladipo.
For the DFS, the Magic were beat up in their frontcourt. By position on DFS points allowed on the season (best meaning they were bad and a favorable matchup), they were 11th best for PG, 11th best for PF, 23rd best for SG, eighth best for C and were the best matchup for SF (via Rotogrinders).
So which lineups were really bad? Here are the lineups with at least 48 minutes last year sorted with the worst D-ratings on top.
Channing Frye definitely jumps out there and it’s no surprise. He’s in the bottom 20 percent for defense on PNR. You’d really think AG gets his burn.
OK, for fantasy, I really like Aaron Gordon late, I am in love with Oladipo late round two in eight-cat, and I really like Tobias when he slips a bit — he has been from what I've seen. Skiles doesn’t like rookies, so I’d stay away for Mario Hezonja in drafts.
@DenDenUFC @MikeSGallagher just drafted joe johnson in my league. Thinking about dropping him for either stauskas, kristaps whose still on my wire?
That looks like a shallow league right there. As much as I love Sauce Castillo, you have to take Joe Johnson. The Nets do not have a lot of options on offense and Markel Brown is already hurt, so Joe will get a ton of usage and other stats. He won’t blow you away, but he should be a top-75 player at worst. He has a low ceiling, though.
@VP90244 @MikeSGallagher cp3 only & stay away from the clips. Agreed? Not cool w Blake's low stl blks 3's & low ft% w high fta & high to’s
You have to love CP3 and he shouldn’t fall past seven. He was No. 1 after the break last year and I really think his new style of play will help his durability — new style meaning he’s relying on mid-range more because he was the best player on those last year. I have him at No. 5 in nine-cat leagues.
As for Blake, I could see myself taking him, but I'm not targeting. We really can’t knock his free throw shooting anymore after he made 77 percent after the break last year -- small sample, though. I think he’ll be more like 75 percent, so he’s not really a big minus there anymore. Not a positive, of course.
After Blake, there’s no way I’m targeting anyone else in standard leagues. Obviously, I like DJ in a points format.
@dubsfan_78 @MikeSGallagher will LMA be a stud this year on the spurs? Will he be a top 20 player?
I think he’ll be very good.
We’ll see his usage rate and scoring slide a bit, but I think his other numbers are fine. I’m not drafting him because I’m worried about injuries.
@DazLawrence @MikeSGallagher hey Mike, just got drawn pick 11 in my 12 team h2h 8cat league, who should I target/pair with my 11 & 14 picks? Thanks!
Eight-cat leagues are a little unpredictable. Assuming the big PGs go, I’d probably hope Kawhi slides to 11 and Jimmy Butler or Klay on the way back. The 11th pick sucks in an eight-cat, by the way. You would have to go big and PG for almost the rest of your top 10 picks because it's easy to clean up on the wing.
@GregOsterswag @MikeSGallagher What do you think of Meyers Legend this season? Think hes gonna earn himself a starting role during this rebuild?
I think he’s the No. 3 Blazer to come off the board and it's not that close. We have spent a lot of time talking about him on the podcasts, so I hope you guys are listening to those!
