Everywhere one looks there are reports of fears of a slide back into an economic recession. Those reports are generally accompanying articles that emphasize a downward trend in one or more economic indicators. But a recent poll conducted by CNN indicates that most people think that the United States has already re-entered recession mode again.
According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, 82 percent of those surveyed believe the U.S. is in a recession. Of those responding affirmatively to the position, 35 percent believe the U.S. is in a "serious recession" and another 34 percent believe America to be in a "moderate recession." Only 18 percent of Americans do not believe the U. S. economy is in recession.
Technically, the 18 percent would be correct.
Technically, the economy is in recession when it experiences to consecutive quarters of negative growth -- which is not the case. But technicalities do not often enter into common perceptions. And the common perception, after hearing reports of zero job growth (for the first time it has hit exactly zero since 1945), no real proactive ideas of spurring job growth among the nation's political leaders, and rumblings that the Federal Reserve is set to buy more government securities in yet another attempt to inject cash back into the economy, is that the economy is in recession.
CNN Polling Director Keating Holland describes Americans as having "a bad case of economic jitters."
As might be understandable, given that the unemployment rate remained at 9.1 percent for the month of July, according to the Labor of Bureau Statistics. The number of long-term unemployed, those that are receiving extended unemployment benefits and have exhausted the 26 weeks (half a year) of regular unemployment payouts, make up 43 percent of those receiving unemployment benefits. And the White House noted Thursday that the unemployment rate might not fall below 6 percent until 2017.
People often do not acknowledge a technicality when their overall experience of a known state (such as an economic downturn or an extended period of economic stasis, not to mention steady unemployment) continues to be reinforced. In this particular case, Americans have been experiencing a recession for the good part of a decade. And, technically or not, they "feel" as if they are in a recession.
Many believe the solution is in jobs creation. According to the same CNN poll, 68 percent think that the president needs to concentrate more on jobs creation, even if it leads to less deficit reduction. A full 83 percent of Democrats agree with that sentiment, while 66 percent of Independents do as well. Only 54 percent, a slim majority, feel the same way among Republicans. And it is in that near 50/50 split where Republican congressmen get the support to call for spending cuts as well as jobs creation plans.
President Obama, whose poll numbers indicate growing discontent in his handling of the economy , will address the jobs situation in a meeting before a joint session of Congress on Thursday. Analysts watching his ever-declining job approval poll numbers now believe that the president's 2012 re-election is almost entirely dependent upon the economy and whether or not he can lead an economic comeback in the area of jobs creation.
Technically speaking, an upturn in the economy depends upon far more variables than just President Obama (or anyone else)'s jobs creation plan or plans to get it moving in a positive direction.
But people fearing recession or battling continued joblessness might not acknowledge a technicality come next November.
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