BANGKOK -- Due to Thailand's devastating floods, the government is warning inflation will be a problem in coming months. At the beginning of November, with a third of Thailand under water, Bloomberg reported the inflation rate was above 4 percent, and expected to stay at that or rise. The average Thai consumer, however, will tell you it's even higher for mainstay items most people have no choice but to buy -- food, particularly vegetables and fruit, drinks and gasoline - these have increased by 10 percent or more.
This week, I went to a local market to meet friends for lunch. Although there are air-conditioned restaurants in the market, in the winter months, we choose to eat at the food court. Food is cheap, and sitting outside by the man-made lake is lovely, when the weather is cool. But, this week, the experience wasn't so nice.
A plate of rice, two toppings (pork and chicken curries) and a fried egg normally costs 45 baht or $1.47. Since floods hit Bangkok a month ago, the same meal is now 60 baht or $1.97, an increase of 50 cents per meal. While not a huge amount for a westerner maybe, although I begrudge paying it on my Thai salary, as the average Thai salary is less than $300 a month, an increase of 50 cents per meal, or potentially $1.50 a day, is a huge amount for a Thai.
Even buying groceries in Bangkok is an unpleasant experience as the products I normally buy aren't available, due to distribution problems of flooded factories, or because costs have risen 5-15% on everything. Even my normal purchases at my local 7-11 have been impossible to get, as their shelves stay empty, because their distribution center on one of Bangkok's flooded industrial estates cannot function.
For the last four years, I've bought vegetables for my pet rabbits from an independent vendor who comes down my street every day. For three-day's supply of kale, carrots, celery and cilantro, I pay 100 baht, or $3.37. When floods hit our neighborhood, the truck stopped coming as, not only could she not get through the flooded streets, she couldn't buy fruit and vegetables at the nearby flooded market either. A month later, and she still hasn't returned.
The vegetables I need for my rabbits now cost me 300 baht every three days, or $9.83. A whopping 300 percent increase. Why? Because the only fresh, edible vegetables available in my neighborhood, are now only sold at one of two upscale supermarkets and, with job commitments, I don't have time to travel to the less expensive ones.
And don't even get me started on how much money my poor vegetable vendor is losing in daily sales.
This type of enormous price increase is happening all over Thailand. For westerners like me, while we might grumble about increases, most of which will remain as things like fruit and vegetable crops were destroyed by floods, a 10 percent increase is still manageable. For many Thais, a 10 percent increase is the difference between providing nutritious food for their families or not, being able to afford public transportation to work or not.
Be aware too, it's not only Thailand suffering price-wise because of flooding. Thailand is the world's largest rice exporter, so anyone who likes rice can expect their costs to increase. It's also one of the world's biggest producers of computer hard drives and peripherals, and the main Japanese factory here is still under two meters of water. If you're in the market for a new computer, expect that to suddenly be more expensive.
Floods do an incredible amount of property damage while they're happening. But, what many don't realize is, even when they're gone, the costs can be felt for months if not years down the road. Everywhere.
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