If the current sentiment coming from conservatives is an accurate indication, Gov. Rick Perry's campaign might be in a little trouble because many conservative analysts and newspeople have undoubtedly lost faith in him after his verbal debacle in Orlando, Fla., on Sept. 22.
To make matters worse, and to possibly drive home the idea that Florida Republicans could possibly reflect the national Republican electorate, Perry only managed a 15 percent showing at the Florida Straw Poll on Saturday, coming in second to Atlanta businessman Herman Cain. On "Fox News Sunday," the panel told anchor Chris Wallace the Perry presidential campaign was looking shaky, and Fox News analyst Britt Hume said it appeared the Texan was "one half a step away from total collapse."
Hume gave Perry no quarter after Wallace showed a clip of Perry saying Americans were looking for a leader, not a polished speaker. "Perry really did throw up on himself in the debate at a time when he needed to raise his game," Hume noted. "I mean, he did worse, it seems to me, than he had done in previous debates. ... Perry is about one half a step away from almost total collapse as a candidate."
What constitutes a half step? Although Perry did poorly in all three of his debate performances (and particularly so at Thursday's Fox News/Google debate), a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted over the weekend indicated he had only lost 2 percentage points (Mitt Romney, in second, only gained 3) from the previous CNN poll, placing the decrease within the margin of error (+/-3 percent).
But the CNN poll may not be indicative of the growing dissatisfaction with Perry as a presidential candidate. The Florida Straw Poll, conducted by the Republican Party of Florida, was an event at which Perry campaigned to win. He barely scored more support than Romney, who did not campaign at all. Still, as The Weekly Standard editor and political analyst Bill Kristol pointed out, Romney has campaigned in Florida for the past five years. Cain's 37 percent win was a directed message that Republicans following the GOP field are not satisfied with their choices.
"Seventy percent voted against the two front-runners," Kristol told "Fox News Sunday." "It was a vote of 'no confidence. ... These are very weak front-runners."
But Kristol did have something hopeful to add about the demoralizingly underwhelming 2012 GOP presidential field: "If you look at the polls in September 2007, were Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. The front-runners in the Democrats -- I looked this up -- in 2003, in September, were Howard Dean and Wesley Clark, who -- so you can have a nominee who is not a front-runner in September of the year before the nomination."
However, none of those candidates presented as poorly as Gov. Perry has in the short time he has been in the running (since mid-August). Kristol said as much in his review of Thursday night's debate, characterizing Perry's debate performance as "disqualifying."
Still, Perry's national numbers seem to show that the debates are hurting him but not overly much. His double-digit lead among Republican voters decreased somewhat to a consistent single-digit lead.
And the shoot-from-the-hip politician could be correct that America is looking for a leader and not an orator. But if he is just slightly incorrect, and America (not to mention the Republicans he will need to gain the 2012 GOP nomination) would not only like to have someone who appears to be a strong leader but also one that is well-spoken, he could lose that half step and watch his campaign collapse.
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