ANALYSIS | Two week ago Texas governor Rick Perry had a solid two-digit lead over his nearest Republican competitor, Mitt Romney, for the 2012 Republican nomination for president. But exceedingly poor performances in back-to-back Florida debates and a loss of confidence vote in the Florida Straw Poll has diminished Perry's lead. In fact, according to the latest Fox News poll, the Texan's lead has diminished so much that he no longer has it. And that doesn't seem to be all the poll discovered. Herman Cain, who won the Florida Straw Poll and has done well in the debates, surged to within a couple points of Perry's second-place position.
According to the poll, where 65 percent of the respondents said they were "very" or "extremely" interested in the 2012 political race, Romney led the polling with 23 percent support from Republicans who plan to vote in the upcoming primaries (39 percent of all those who participated in the survey). Perry placed second with 19 percent, a sharp 10 percent drop-off from the previous Fox News poll in August.
The Fox News poll was the first national poll Perry had lost since entering the Republican presidential race on August 13. However, he seemed to stumble after his first MSNBC/Politico debate on September 7, then lost some of his lead after the September 12 CNN/Tea Party Express debate, a night that saw what appeared to be a concerted effort by his fellow contenders to cut into his lead. The same pattern seemed set for the third September debate, the Fox News/Google exchange in Orlando on September 22, but Gov. Perry's own lack of debate skills and an awkward gaffe about "mating Herman Cain to Newt Gingrich" for a vice presidential choice destroyed any hope for recouping the ground he lost in the previous debate. National polls afterward saw Perry trending lower, Romney trending higher.
As for Herman Cain, the poll shows a marked increase in support. Having appeared strong in all his debate appearances, the Atlanta businessman pulled 17 percent, just 2 percent back of Perry and an 11-point jump from where an August Fox News poll placed him. Although the Florida Straw Poll Cain won over the weekend was little more than a bragging rights poll, it also indicated a vote of "no confidence" in the presidential field's frontrunners (Cain won 37 percent to 15 to 14 over Perry and Romney, respectively).
The other candidate Perry would have mated to Cain to get the perfect vice president also saw a rise in his numbers. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich moved up 8 percentage points to 11 and fourth place.
Rep. Michele Bachmann, who seemed on the verge of taking the top spot in the polls just before Perry declared his candidacy, fell to only 3 percent support among Republican voters, finishing behind Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman.
The poll was taken from Sept. 25-27, which seems to indicate that Perry's remonstrations over the weekend in Florida at the Presidency 5 conference -- that America was looking of a strong leader as opposed to a polished debater -- had little to no effect on repairing the destruction he personally dealt his campaign with his Orlando debate performance -- just as they had scant effect on the Florida Straw Poll count.
And now questions arise: Will Mitt Romney be able to keep the lead he has regained? Can Herman Cain capitalize on his surge? For that matter, can the same be said about Newt Gingrich? Can Perry pull himself out of the polling slump that he seems to have gotten himself into? Or has his campaign already felt the impact of a disabling coup de grace, albeit one embarrassingly self-administered?
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