Good News for Mitt Romney in New Swing State Polls

Presidential Poll Roundup - Sept. 5

Yahoo Contributor Network

Midway through the Democratic National Convention, Mitt Romney's bump in the polls has started to arrive. New polls in the key swing states of Ohio and Florida give the Republican nominee a narrow lead. Romney also leads nationally. But the new polls aren't all bad news for Obama.

Florida

Two polls in this important southern state show a close and uncertain race. A new poll released Monday by Public Policy Polling (PPP) found President Barack Obama with a one-point lead over Mitt Romney, 48 to 47 percent. The poll of 1,548 likely voters had a margin of error of 2.5 percent. This is the same result as a similar PPP poll done five weeks ago, showing no bump for Romney in Florida.

A second poll by Gravis Marketing gave Romney a 1 point lead. The poll surveyed 1,288 likely voters. They preferred Romney 48 to 47 percent, with a 2.7 percent margin of error. Both of these new polls were taken entirely after the Republican National Convention.

Ohio

Another poll conducted by Gravis Marketing surveyed the Buckeye State. The poll of 1,381 registered voters gave Romney a three-point lead over Obama, 47 to 44 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percent. A previous Gravis Marketing poll had found Obama with the lead in this important battleground state, 45 to 44 percent. While both results are within their margins of error, Gravis has found evidence of a modest post-convention bump for Romney in Ohio.

Michigan

Public Policy Polling also released another poll, taken in Michigan. Obama leads in the poll by 7 points, 51 to 44 percent. The poll surveyed 815 likely voters between Aug. 31 and Sept. 1, with a margin of error of 3.4 percent. This poll is in line with most other polls of Michigan, all which give the President healthy leads. "Barack Obama probably won't come close to winning Michigan by the margin he did in 2008," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, in a statement released with the poll. "But he's still the very clear favorite there."

National Polls

The latest national tracking polls also show an uncertain race. The Gallup Tracking poll continues to show Obama with a one-point lead over Romney, 47 to 46 percent. Obama's lead in this poll has not changed since the Republican National Convention began. The poll of more than 3,000 registered voters averages over seven days, with a margin of error of 2 percent.

The Rasmussen Tracking poll has Romney in the lead nationwide, 48 to 45 percent. Rasmussen tracks a three-day rolling average, surveying 500 likely voters each day, with a 3 percent margin of error. Both the Rasmussen and Gallup results are within the margin of error, but Rasmussen gives a stronger edge to Romney.

The most recent CNN poll had the two candidates tied at 48 percent each. The poll surveyed 735 likely voters with a 3.5 percent margin of error. A similar poll taken just before the Republican National Convention found Obama with a two-point lead, 49 to 47 percent, indicating a small bump for the Republican challenger in this poll.

View Comments (-85)