Can Google Maintain Android's Stunning Momentum?

Few tech products are rising as quickly in popularity as Google's Android operating system, which has soared from its launch in October 2008 via the HTC Dream to become the most popular platform both domestically and abroad.

Carriers seem to launch new Android devices made by HTC, Motorola, Samsung, Pantech, LG and others almost weekly, and Android-powered tablets are also starting to crowd shelves, with a Google-designed Nexus tablet promised in the next six months.

Android has been cutting into the market share of the declining BlackBerry devices made by Canada's Research In Motion, as Android devices gain more messaging and productivity functions. The latest figures from the NPD Group have Android sales up to 53 percent of the market for the year as of October, up from 42 percent in 2010.

Reveling in the success, Andy Rubin, Google's senior vice president for mobile services, took to Google+, the search giant's social networking site, and to his Twitter feed, to boast that "There are now over 700,000 Android devices activated every day."

That's enough people to fill a medium-sized city. (The population of Detroit is around 713,00 and the population of Miami is about 399, 000.) The 700,000 figure is a substantial bump from 300,000 activations claimed by Google last December.

New Devices Only

In a poke at cynics who might question that number, Rubin attached an addendum: "...and for those wondering, we count each device only once (i.e., we don't count resold devices), and 'activations' means you go into a store, buy a device, put it on the network by subscribing to a wireless service."

All this begs the question of whether Android can keep up that level of momentum as the novelty wears off and new adopters begin to hold on to their often-expensive devices.

"I'm not surprised, since they are turning up the heat at this time of year," said Ramon Llamas, a senior wireless analyst at IDC Research. "But come back to me in April, May or June when things may get a bit slower and they may be hard-pressed to have that kind of pace still moving forward. When you get right down to it, it seems to be seasonal."

Hardware Push?

But Llamas said the numbers are impressive, especially considering it does not seem to include those buying Wi-Fi only devices such as Android-powered tablets that do not require activation by a carrier.

He said it will be interesting to see whether Google begins to move further into hardware manufacture, instead of just firmware, if its planned acquisition of Motorola Mobility is approved by regulators.

"In the long term I have a hard time seeing that," he said. "I have to believe they will have an arm's-length relationship. As they learned from the first Nexus [smartphone] device, you can't just intermediate the carrier. It means you have to buy shelf space, maintain inventory....It's a different model than developing software."