COMMENTARY | With the South Carolina Primary looming, politicians from the Palmetto State are everywhere one turns, appearing on talk shows and in videotaped segments, offering their opinions on the GOP presidential race and the importance of the South Carolina Primary itself. Sen. Lindsay Graham and Congressman Tim Scott appeared on NBC's "Meet The Press" today and asserted that a Mitt Romney win in their state basically seals the Republican nomination for the former Massachusetts governor. Were the two Republicans engaging in a little political hyperbole? And if not, how could that be, especially with 47 more primaries and caucuses to go in the 2012 nominating cycle?
"If for some reason he's not derailed here and Mitt Romney wins South Carolina, no one's ever won all three, I think it should be over," Graham told "Meet The Press." "That would be quite a testament to his ability as a candidate and a campaigner."
Scott agreed on the same episode. "If Romney wins South Carolina," he said, "I think the game is over."
But how can that be? Simply put: By the time the South Carolina Primary is held (Jan. 21), the war chests of the Republican campaigns will either be empty, nearly empty, or even running in the red. Most won't be able to stay in the race without continued financing. This happens during each presidential nomination cycle, where the candidates sink their money in the first several contests -- Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. Without a good showing in these contests, many of the contenders drop out, winnowing the overall field. Those who have plenty of backing or get backing after posting strong results can expect their campaign coffers to be refilled and at least carry on through one or several more contests.
But Mitt Romney has won the first two contests (the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary), something no non-incumbent Republican candidate has ever done before. And even with strong anti-Romney sentiment in the Republican ranks, it does not appear to be strong enough to stop him. At least, not while the Republicans are fragmented.
Attempting to rectify that problem, a meeting of conservative evangelical Christian leaders over the weekend voted to endorse Sen. Rick Santorum (via the National Post ) in an effort to unify the Christian vote and support a candidate more conservative than Romney. With less than a week before the South Carolina Primary, it is uncertain if the move will be effective.
Romney, who has battled accusations that he is too liberal, that he flip flops on issues, and that he is not a true Christian (although that factor, that Romney's religion is seen as a cult by many evangelicals, is mostly subtext and rarely mentioned), has the lead in the South Carolina polls (as tracked by Real Clear Politics). His strongest contender appears to be Newt Gingrich, although Santorum made a strong bid in evangelical Iowa and helped produce the closest race in the Caucus' history. Santorum currently is polling in third and fourth in a dead heat with Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.
But Graham and Scott may also be buying into the idea that South Carolina traditionally has picked the Republican nominee, which gives it a sort of benedictory status. According to NPR, since the Primary's inception in 1980, South Carolina has chosen the candidate that eventually became the Republican nominee for president.
But it does not have to be that way. By the time South Carolina has voted and allocated its 25 delegates, there still will have only been 55 delegates appointed (some non-binding). There will be 2,286 appointed by the end of the primary cycle.
But by the time Florida holds its Primary on Jan. 31 (the fourth contest in the cycle), the race will either be over or nearly so. Candidates will have reached the end of their financial limits, hoping for something to give their campaign a spark or make the frontrunner stumble. If Romney takes the first-in-the-South primary in South Carolina, it would appear that momentum would be in his favor going into Florida. Financial backers become reluctant to back long shots as the race gets to Florida (and beyond) and only a candidate like Rep. Ron Paul, who has a solid base of supporters that rally periodically with "money bombs" to refill his campaign coffers, will continue for any extended period after South Carolina without some sign of a surge.
Although Sen. Lindsay Graham and Rep. Tim Scott shouldn't be correct in their assertions, especially given the number of states left to hold primaries and caucuses and the great number of delegates yet to be allocated, they most likely are.
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