ANALYSIS | In a Washington Post interview published Wednesday, conservative strategist and tax reform lobbyist Grover Norquist may have given Republican lawmakers the leeway they need to cut a deal in the debt ceiling talks that would be popular with most Americans. He told the Post's editorial board that allowing the Bush tax breaks to expire was not technically a violation of the pledge that an overwhelming majority of Congressional Republicans have signed since taking office -- that of never supporting or voting for a tax increase. But then he said that his powerful tax reform organization would not support such a move. Some see his words as a way out of the debt ceiling impasse, but it may not be so simple.
"Not continuing a tax cut is not technically a tax increase," Grover Norquist, leader of the Americans for Tax Reform, said. Asked if it was a violation of the pledge, he stated: "We wouldn't hold it that way."
But when House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) read Norquist's words in a press conference at the Capitol and suggested that House Republicans consider those statements, Norquist clarified his stance on MSNBC.
"There are certain things you can do technically and not violate the pledge but that the general public would clearly understand is a tax increase. So I can be clear, Americans for Tax Reform would oppose any effort to weaken, reduce or not continue the 2001-2003 Bush tax cuts."
He told MSNBC that Hoyer was "wrong." He said, " The answer is, the people who have made this commitment not to raise taxes have made it clear they are not raising taxes, and [House Speaker John] Boehner and other the other Republicans have said that independent of the pledge."
So what exactly was Grover Norquist trying to get across? Simply that allowing the Bush tax breaks to expire would not violate the terms of the pledge that he has had Republicans signing for 25 years. Technically speaking, the taxes already exist, and as some have previously pointed out , the re-establishing of the taxes is not an increase, just an elimination of the break that allows taxpayers to pay less in taxes.
But Norquist also wants it understood that his organization does not agree with tax increases of any kind, regardless of the technicality. In short, Norquist told Republicans that allowing the Bush tax breaks to expire or doing anything to weaken them would not be supported by his tax reform group -- but they could do so at their own risk.
In Republican Party circles, especially now with the added pressure of the anti-taxation Tea Party movement, being seen as a politician who would renege on a tax cut pledge could have devastating consequences, both in future dealings with conservative lawmakers and with reelection financial support and campaigning (not to mention actual reelection support from the electorate). Allowing tax breaks to be considered in the negotiations for raising the debt ceiling could prove a dangerous gamble for many legislators.
But Americans overall believe that revenue or tax increases should be considered alongside the massive spending cuts being demanded by Republicans. And most Americans, including a majority of Republicans, believe that GOP lawmakers are being overly intransigent in the negotiations. At the same time, many realize that increased revenues would help offset drastic spending cuts, which is seen in poll responses where the debt ceiling is seen as something that needs to be raised but done without affecting Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare.
Republicans face a difficult decision in the coming days as the deadline for an impending federal default on its loans and a government shutdown of nonessential services approaches. According to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the government has been juggling and deferring payments since mid-May, when the legal limit for borrowing -- the debt ceiling -- was reached. August 2 is the last day that the government will be able to juggle its financial commitments. Decisions for discontinuing and postponing payments on government programs and services will have to be made, causing at least a temporary government shutdown.
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