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    Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon, NASA Says

    Heads up! That's the word from NASA today (Sept. 7) given the impending re-entry of a 6.5-ton satellite  — the— through Earth's atmosphere.

    The huge Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere in an uncontrolled fall in late September or early October. Much of the spacecraft is expected to burn up during re-entry, but some pieces are expected to make it intact to the ground, NASA officials said.

    The U.S. space agency will be taking measures to inform the public about the pieces of the spacecraft that are expected to survive re-entry.

    "It is too early to say exactly when UARS will re-enter and what geographic area may be affected, but NASA is watching the satellite closely and will keep you informed," NASA said in a statement released today (Sept. 7). [Worst Space Debris Events of All Time]

    The satellite launched to Earth orbit in 1991 aboard NASA's space shuttle Discovery and was decommissioned on Dec. 14, 2005. It is 35 feet (10.7 meters) long and 15 feet (4.5 m) wide.

    Small risk to public

    One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

    That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

    That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).

    "The risk to public safety or property is extremely small, and safety is NASA's top priority," noted a NASA website dedicated to the re-entry. "Since the beginning of the Space Age in the late-1950s, there have been no confirmed reports of an injury resulting from re-entering space objects. Nor is there a record of significant property damage resulting from a satellite re-entry."

    Nonetheless, there is a chance that pieces of debris from the satellite will crash in populated areas.

    According to NASA, on UARS re-entry day, "if you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance."

    NASA will host a press conference on Friday (Sept. 9) to discuss the anticipated re-entry.

    Public to be informed

    The actual date of re-entry is difficult to predict because it depends on solar flux and the spacecraft's orientation as its orbit decays. As re-entry draws closer, predictions on the date will become more reliable.

    NASA plans to post updates weekly until about four days before the anticipated re-entry. The agency will then share daily updates until about 24 hours before re-entry, when it will begin even more frequent postings.

    The updates will come from the Joint Space Operations Center of U.S. Strategic Command at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, which works around the clock to detect, identify and track all man-made objects in Earth orbit, including space junk.

    Debris in Earth orbit, including broken satellites, spent rocket stages and other trash, is a growing problem, both because of the threat it will collide with working spacecraft, and the chance that it will re-enter Earth's atmosphere and crash in populated areas.

    According to a recent National Research Council report, we have now reached a tipping point, called the Kessler Threshold, at which there is already enough orbital debris that even if no more were added, new debris will continually be created through collisions between existing objects.

    UARS was used to study Earth's atmosphere by observing numerous chemical components through multiple instruments. Before it ended its scientific life in 2005, UARS data marked the beginning of many long-term records for key chemicals in the atmosphere. The satellite also provided key information on the amount of light that comes from the sun at ultraviolet and visible wavelengths.

    Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry for more than five decades. He is a winner of this year's National Space Club Press Award and a past editor-in-chief of the National Space Society's Ad Astra and Space World magazines. He has written for SPACE.com since 1999.

     

    13 comments

    • Kirstin  •  8 mths ago
      NASA and DARPA have both funded some efforts to work on autonomous spacecraft refueling and also robotic deorbit packages, which would mitigate this problem a bit; NASA in particular has some long-range concerns about Hubble, which will be a bigger threat than this spacecraft is, and has absolutely no thrusters whatsoever. I know there was talk about developing a robotic deorbit package, but I've heard little about it in the last few years; I hope it's still being worked on. It's far too late to do anything with this spacecraft, but it's way past time for a plan on this problem.
    • D  •  8 mths ago
      "Hey O'Connell...better tell your new boyfriend to take shelter in a cave somewhere for a while." ~ Fleischman
    • James D  •  8 mths ago
      messed up
    • fl1014  •  8 mths ago
      a shuttle launched it but a shuttle could not return it to earth ............ just wondering !
      • Kirstin 8 mths ago
        Even ignoring that post-Columbia flight rules (instigated by the CAIB) would have forbidden a retrieval flight, there are two main problems. One is that NASA was always nervous about landing such a heavily laden Orbiter in a non-emergency situation. It's within the Orbiter's capabilities, technically speaking (and has to be, in case something goes wrong before it can deploy a massive payload), but it's into the hairy edge zone where more things can go wrong. The other is that it would be expensive, and given that there are many heavy satellites that will eventually fall, how do you choose which ones to return? They weren't even able to successfully argue for returning Compton, the first of the Great Observatories, or even Hubble when it comes to the end of its lifetime. So yes, it was possible (before Shuttle was decommissioned), but very unlikely to happen.
      • Mark 8 mths ago
        It's an acceptable risk to NASA if it drops in your backyard or on you.
      • Kirstin 8 mths ago
        Mark -- well, they have to compare the risk of the satellite's debris striking and injuring someone or damaging property versus the risk of losing a Shuttle and its crew in the effort to retrieve it (not to mention the expense of the mission itself). If there was only one spacecraft needing retrieval, it might be justifiable -- but there are hundreds which could eventually become killers. How much risk is really reduced by removing one of them? Is it worth risking a Shuttle and her crew if the overall risk isn't really reduced much? Probably not. Hubble had the most going for a return mission; historical value, so it could be stuck in the Smithsonian for people to gape at for decades to come. And even that wasn't enough, in the end.
    • Don  •  8 mths ago
      How much more would it take to include small orientation (station keeping) type rockets on everything that goes up to enable it to come down when it's usefulness is over?
      • jwjeffrey 8 mths ago
        Or something to destoy it in orbit from remote control,say a radio charge on it.
      • Kirstin 8 mths ago
        Destroying it in orbit is a very bad idea; it will just generate more orbital debris and increase the odds of taking out another spacecraft. It's a big problem.

        To include maneuvering thrusters is fairly straightforward, but not all spacecraft missions are compatible with them. Hubble, for instance, has no thrusters at all, because they would contaminate the telescope, and because it had an alternate system for attitude control -- reaction control motors (gyros, basically). As it is, the Shuttle always had to be very delicate when approaching it with its own thrusters. I could see requiring all spacecraft carry a deorbit package; space is still a virtually unregulated environment, and that would probably be my first choice for a new regulation.
      • Mark 8 mths ago
        It would be inconvenient (to NASA) to provide the ability to deorbit satellites safely. Better for the public to take their chances. Same goes for the ISS. NASA is only NOW giving some thought to the matter.
    • Blue Green  •  8 mths ago
      Lot of material in a 35 foot by 15 foot 6.5 ton satellite. A plan should be formed to recycle this type of material, in space, to be used on something like the ISS. After it was formulated and put into use it could be a little cheaper than starting from scratch and launching new material into space.
      Build a larger lab and clean up the immediate area of space around Earth at the same time. Of course there will be a great fireworks show, in the sky, when this one drops, kind of hope its at night and visible.
      • Not Here 8 mths ago
        That would make too much sense. Back when the shuttle first became operational one of the things that was discussed was using the spent main tanks in the manner you suggest. Docking a few of these together could make a dandy space station on the scale of MIR, or form the basis of a lunar orbiter. It wouldn't take much of an additional burn to get them up there. Boeing and others even had designs for habitable modules that fit inside the upper portion of the tank. The Soviets were so economical with their program (because they had to be). I've often wished we were.
    • david  •  8 mths ago
      I'll get my SkyLab helmet out!
    • DAM  •  8 mths ago
      Note to self ... buy a new crash helmet tomorrow !!!!
    • Lady Kougar  •  8 mths ago
      Greeeaaat
    • Mark  •  8 mths ago
      "Since the beginning of the Space Age in the late-1950s, there have been no confirmed reports of an injury resulting from re-entering space objects."

      Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
      • Jerry 8 mths ago
        This reminds me of a redneck joke. Two rednecks decide to do duck hunting near a giant river located next to a tall mountain. At the same time a Yankee decides he will go hang gliding so he jumps off the same mountain and away he goes gliding in the air above the river. Those two rednecks look up above their heads and as the Yankee on the hang glider swoops just over them. The first redneck starts shooting away at the Yankee. Then the second redneck asks his friend, "Did you get that fowl?" To which his friend answers, "I don't know but did you see how quick that giant bird dropped that man into the river as soon as I shot at him?"
      • jwjeffrey 8 mths ago
        There's alway a 1st time.
      • Kirstin 8 mths ago
        Unfortunately, that's something that people in the space biz are painfully aware of. Plus, there is at least one report of an injury; it just wasn't a *human* injury. I seem to recall reading that a deorbiting Soviet probe struck and killed a cow in Argentina. If it could do that, it could kill a person. The odds are against it, but really, it's just as likely for debris to hit a spot with a person on it as any other particular spot on Earth. It's just that there are lots more spots without people.
    • AT  •  8 mths ago
      Oh that is just Dandy. No one knows where it will come to it final resting place. It could fall at a family get together, a Wedding out side or even indoors, ball game any ball game, in the middle of Rush hour Traffic. It could come in any Country, State, County City, it could crash into your bedroom when your asleep at night. Well, I guess we won't know, until you hear about it in the news.
    • Lao  •  8 mths ago
      We shot a satellite into the air. Where to land we knew not where. Though put in orbit that was afar. It hit the radiator of my car.
    • The Real Jethro  •  8 mths ago
      Look out Austrailia! Skylab part II is coming your way!
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