FIRST PERSON | I don't have a crystal ball. I don't have a magic fountain. I don't have a stack of cards. What I do have is 10-plus years of experience in Iowa politics and four of those years were spent as the Co-Chair of the Polk County Republican Party.
I've had people three times my age refer to me as a "seasoned veteran" when it comes to Iowa politics. I'm not going to say "I've seen it all" because as soon as I do say that, something new happens.
At the Iowa Straw Poll, I correctly predicted first, second and third. My husband was shocked. I laughed and said, "When you've been to as many political events as I have, you get a knack for these things."
Over the past few months, I've attended various political stops from the majority of the candidates, watched the news and been a part of way too many email lists. I'm ready to make my predictions for the results of tonight's Iowa caucus. Here they are, in order of finish:
* Rick Santorum by a nose. The headlines will be interesting. Santorum will win, but just barely. I honestly wish the media would stop using the words "Santorum" and "surge" in the same sentence. If you're tuned into pop culture, you'll know why. But I think Santorum has paid his dues in Iowa and Iowans will reward him with a win.
* Mitt Romney will come in second, but just barely. If he had spent just a little more time in the state, he could have pulled off a win. He'll win in New Hampshire but second place in Iowa isn't bad.
* Ron Paul will place third and slowly fade away afterward. His supporters are loud, but not as numerous as they'd like to think (imagine small puppy with a complex) they are. That being said, the Paul supporters will be loud at the caucus. They will try to engage Iowans. Just be nice, be polite. And don't feed the trolls.
* Newt Gingrich isn't conservative enough for Iowans, thus giving him a fourth-place finish. He's got too many skeletons (and ex-wives) in the closet. He's a brilliant and smart man, but Iowans believe if you can't keep an oath to your spouse, what makes us believe you'll keep an oath to the voters.
* Rick Perry isn't what Iowans are looking for in a leader. Sure, he's conservative, but I think he really alienated himself with the "gays serving in the military somehow equals not being able to say 'Merry Christmas' ad."
* Michele Bachmann will end up in sixth place. She spent a little too much time in Iowa. Not possible? Yes, it is. When Iowans see you so much they start believing that you're crazy, you've been here too much. It doesn't matter that you were born here if you can't get your facts about Iowa straight. She had a great start, peaked too early and should have hired a fact checker back in January ... of last year. She will drop out after Iowa.
* Jon Huntsman dissed Iowa. He's got no chance. I'd be surprised if he polled over 2 percent. He didn't campaign here and he put the nail in the coffin with the "They pick corn in Iowa, in New Hampshire they pick presidents," comment.
* Write-ins will round out the list. I know of a few people who plan to write in Herman Cain (why, I don't know, but it's their choice) and believe it or not, at our caucus four years ago, someone voted for Barack Obama. I'm not sure if they were in the wrong room or were just confused.
There are my predictions. I've heard a few of my friends say they're voting for someone who "can beat Obama." What we need to do is vote for a conservative. We don't need an Obama-lite. There's no point. We can't just slow down the trip down the road, we need a change in direction.
Are my predictions correct? I guess we'll see around 9 p.m. today.
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