COMMENTARY | What happens in Vegas, happens in Tel Aviv. Some time ago, I hosted former Israeli President Moshe Katsav's son for his post-IDF duty vacation at his destination of choice -- Las Vegas.
The young soldier had more of an interest in seeing the attractions than in gambling and told me up front that he only wanted to make a single large bet. He asked that I go to the roulette table for him, choose a color and bet it all on that color. I chose black and he won without ever having to approach the table. Similarly, this is how Israel may go all in to preemptively strike Iran -- partially delegating the duty to allies, firing its missiles from afar with those countries that may be willing to share the risk alongside Israel. Additionally, Israel would not want to risk a ground war with Iran.
Israel seems poised to decisively strike Iran before Iran achieves nuclear parity. Eventually, Israel will make its bet and go all in. However, it will not do so alone without military support from its allies. There will be many hands holding Israel's hand when Israel decides to preemptively decimate Iran's nuclear capabilities. Israelis seem to be more comfortable with "sure things" and that is why a preemptive Iranian strike is so nerve wracking, like the young Katsav's sole Vegas bet -- there will be an element of luck involved.
The complexity and uncertainty of the situation extends beyond the region and has the potential to ignite global conflict if not handled properly. The Carnegie Council asserts "The rationale for preventive war is that conflict with the adversary is so deep and unremitting that war is ultimately inevitable, on worse terms than at present, as the enemy grows stronger over time. Thus it is better to face the music sooner, when chances of military success are greater."
You must look back to 1948 to find a time comparable in terms of existential risk to the nation of Israel. Knowing that Iran will eventually possess nuclear missiles seems to be a strong enough reason to go ALL IN, however, just because Iran is currently lacking the nuclear option doesn't mean Iran is without any other potentially catastrophic options.
Is Benjamin Netanyahu a gambling man? He seems to be building up support and the national courage needed to take military action sooner rather than later.