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    If Israel Strikes Iran, Will it Go All In?

    This story comes from the Yahoo! Contributor Network, where individuals publish their unique perspectives on some of the world’s most popular websites.
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    COMMENTARY | What happens in Vegas, happens in Tel Aviv. Some time ago, I hosted former Israeli President Moshe Katsav's son for his post-IDF duty vacation at his destination of choice -- Las Vegas.

    The young soldier had more of an interest in seeing the attractions than in gambling and told me up front that he only wanted to make a single large bet. He asked that I go to the roulette table for him, choose a color and bet it all on that color. I chose black and he won without ever having to approach the table. Similarly, this is how Israel may go all in to preemptively strike Iran -- partially delegating the duty to allies, firing its missiles from afar with those countries that may be willing to share the risk alongside Israel. Additionally, Israel would not want to risk a ground war with Iran.

    Israel seems poised to decisively strike Iran before Iran achieves nuclear parity. Eventually, Israel will make its bet and go all in. However, it will not do so alone without military support from its allies. There will be many hands holding Israel's hand when Israel decides to preemptively decimate Iran's nuclear capabilities. Israelis seem to be more comfortable with "sure things" and that is why a preemptive Iranian strike is so nerve wracking, like the young Katsav's sole Vegas bet -- there will be an element of luck involved.

    The complexity and uncertainty of the situation extends beyond the region and has the potential to ignite global conflict if not handled properly. The Carnegie Council asserts "The rationale for preventive war is that conflict with the adversary is so deep and unremitting that war is ultimately inevitable, on worse terms than at present, as the enemy grows stronger over time. Thus it is better to face the music sooner, when chances of military success are greater."

    You must look back to 1948 to find a time comparable in terms of existential risk to the nation of Israel. Knowing that Iran will eventually possess nuclear missiles seems to be a strong enough reason to go ALL IN, however, just because Iran is currently lacking the nuclear option doesn't mean Iran is without any other potentially catastrophic options.

    Is Benjamin Netanyahu a gambling man? He seems to be building up support and the national courage needed to take military action sooner rather than later.

     
    • Axel  •  3 mths ago
      "Go All In?" Well that means nuclear war, doesn't it?
      Mainstream media seems really hellbent on producing the first global revolution.
      Do you realize how sick it is to write articles like this?
    • Boston Blackie  •  5 mths ago
      To paraphase Albert Einstein: I don't know what weapons will be used in WW3, but WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones.
      • teketoria 5 mths ago
        Well, if H bombs burn out the oxigen to get exploded, not even life left after that to use
        any sticks or stones for whatever.
        Taller than 3 feet creatures shall simply choke to death, because of oxigen deficiency.
      • FkObma 5 mths ago
        You need to do research on how nuclear weapons work. They need no air to operate.
      • Erik 5 mths ago
        H Bomb is not a nuclear bomb...
    • RAY  •  Richardson, United States  •  5 mths ago
      Thats when when world war 3 will really get hot it's already started.
      • rooster 5 mths ago
        the ww3 your talking about will never exsist. after the rapture,and the tribulation, then will the war of all wars will begin. this will be between Israel and everyone else. it really wont be a war against Israel and everyone because the mighty King and Lord of all will make it so that everyone will fight between each other, and Israel will watch them die, all that are left will bury the dead.
      • Matt 5 mths ago
        rooster please make sure you drink every drop of that "kool-aide" in your cup... whack job
      • drill4you 5 mths ago
        People like that rooster guy scare me.......religious people are w....e....i.....r.....d....
    • bushwacked  •  Fort Belvoir, United States  •  5 mths ago
      I want to know when Israel attacks since the stock markets will tank at least 25 percent or more that day.
    • Gorma  •  Arsha, India  •  5 mths ago
      The author of this article is obviously ignorant of geography. He says that Israel wouldn't want to risk a ground war with Iran, which is physically impossible anyway. The only way for Israel to have a ground war with Iran is to go through Syria or Jordan, then through Iraq. Any route that they take to Iran, they would have to go through two international borders. This person has no business writing about anything if they're not even willing to look at a map.
      • Stormytiggs 5 mths ago
        I thought I was missing something in the semantics. Does 'ground war' mean any type of non-WMD conventional war, or is this guy retarded?
      • Alf 5 mths ago
        Well, US have ground war with half the planet and third parties borders seems not to be an issue.
      • eric 5 mths ago
        Nance: Iran ALREADY HAS Iranian troops IN Syria at this very moment. Iran and Syria are close allies and next-door neighbors.
    • Rick  •  West Palm Beach, United States  •  5 mths ago
      Am I missing something here. Did'nt we attack Iraq for fear of Nuclear weapons. What i do not understand is why Israel would act alone and not go with the U.N. as a group.

      Seems to me everytime things settle down the news comes out with a threat so the government will not have to lower the military budget. Sure helps raising the price of oil also.
      • Marty 5 mths ago
        Yeah Iraq didn't have a concerned report from the IAEA stating that they were in fact producing detonation devices along with enriched weapons grade Uranium. Iran does. Israel will not attack alone, it would be suicidal which falls in line with #$%$ Muslims. They will attack, covertly i'm sure, but not without Allied assistance.
    • woody3691  •  5 mths ago
      Those allies won't be Arab or Muslims. To them, siding with Israel to attack Iran, even if it's in their own best interest, would be an infamia. It would take an extra-terrestrial invasion for any Arab nation to side with Israel and even then I doubt it would happen. France, Great Britain and the US are far more likely allies than Saudi Arabia, Lebanon or Jordan. They may all do business with Israel in the wee hours of the morning, when the clouds hide moonlight and no one is walking in the street, but that's about it. The fallout from a proposed attack by Israel & Partners, would be far-reaching. All Arab countries would condemn it. Pakistan would have a kitten and Afghanistan would become Pakistan's new bff. Israel would be brought up by the ICC and the UN would censure Israel. The big question is what will China and Russia do?
    • Shalom  •  Cherry Hill, United States  •  5 mths ago
      Have you looked at a map recently? How could Israel possibly get into a land war with Iran-- by invading Saudi Arabia or Jordan first? And Israel needs a sure thing? Was destroying Iraq's nuclear reactor a sure thing?
      • Pazuzu 5 mths ago
        Not going to find the post refering to Saudi or Jordan as a point of attack but that is silly. Yes the bombing of the Iraq facility was absolutely a sure thing.. Were they honestly going to respond given the political conditions? Given the massive multinational response that would have provoked had Iraq responded it would have actually worked to Israel's interest.
      • Dennis 5 mths ago
        Start of WW I I I , world eco. in a mess , the US and its allies against Iran China Russia and there allies , 100 million dead , whole world bombed out , World Reset , whoever wins starts over rebuilding , full employment , Look at the world before WW I And WW II world eco, in turmoil , high unemployment it seems like World War is used like a reset butten . Trouble is there will be no Real winner after this one.
      • Og 5 mths ago
        @ Dennis - You have no idea what you're talking about. Current nukes, individually, are upwards of 1000 x's more powerful than what hit Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Russia and the US have many thousands of nukes. Britain and France have hundreds apiece. China has many hundreds and then Israel, Pakistan and India. Way, way more than 100 million people would die. The dead will envy the living.
    • Bond, James Bond  •  Tampa, United States  •  5 mths ago
      All Iran got to do is to build their bomb in Russia, then, what do you do? It's wrong,
      Nuclear weapons are wrong; all must get rid of them.
    • R  •  5 mths ago
      I see the comments by others angry that Israel would even contemplate an attack. Imagine if Mexico was the fanatical country and noted that they wanted to wipe the USA off the map and were developing nuclear weapons. You can bet the farm that, like Kennedy in 1963, that Obama would pre-emptively attack Mexico even with the pacifist leon Panetta crying like a baby
    • Brandon  •  5 mths ago
      WW3 unfortunatly might actually happen I just wonder that if it does which countries are on which side
    • HHH816  •  Kapar, Malaysia  •  5 mths ago
      ground war with iran, can israel do it alone
    • Duane Kay  •  Winston-Salem, United States  •  5 mths ago
      Iran dont need a nuke just missiles that carrys a dirty bomb. And if they want to hurt the world all they need to do is sink a few oil tankers.
    • Les  •  Bangkok, Thailand  •  5 mths ago
      Going all in with missiles (to avoid a ground war) to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons means arming those missiles with - nuclear weapons...
    • The Eye of Reason  •  5 mths ago
      .
    • Raj  •  Louisville, United States  •  5 mths ago
      Stupid article. Equating a #$%$ Israeli conscript's visit to Las Vegas, and all along equating the very existence of a nuclear Iran to a casus belli, worthy of a war, is downright crazy. With thinly-veiled propaganda pieces like this, is it any wonder that the average American equates the Jewish presence in the US as a pro-Israel lobby? Countless Jewish writers drop similar, adulatory pieces in every significant publication, Leftist or Rightist, slowly conditioning Americans from across the political spectrum to inevitable war with Iran. Beware of such insidious attempts, and analyze the facts for yourselves. Where is the threat from an Iran with barely a nuclear bomb. The US has 6000, Israel has 400. How could Iran hope to survive a stupid move like attacking Israel? When have the Iranians ever waged war on their neighbors? On the US? Why have we always meddled in Iranian affairs - 1953 CIA toppling of Mossadeq, propping up the Shah? Sanction after sanction, for what? For daring to build a power plant that one country fears could be repurposed to enrich Uranium?Get real people - the same people that brought us the Iraq War are now at it again. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.
    • Hamzah  •  Melbourne, United States  •  5 mths ago
      Most of you fail to realize that though Iran is not armed with nuclear weapons yet, they have a significant supply of missiles. Israel is very small, and would be easy to defeat for Iran, here is an example, take a can of spray paint and paint a motorcycle, then paint a bus, which is easier to cover? Iran would be very difficult for Israel to defeat in a "missile war". Israel would avoid nuclear reactions at all costs because Pakistan would retaliate with their nukes, India would say 'not my problem' and stay out of it. As for how america would react, well Obama would be between a rock and a hard place, people would be #$%$ with heavy military involvement so he would lose a lot of votes for involving us in yet another expensive war shortly before elections, yet he would lose AIPAC votes and campaign funds, so what would most likely happen is that the US govt would supply israel with boat loads of cash and missiles, intelligence, and maybe a small military involvement. Israel has had difficulty defending itself against small rocket attacks from Hizbullah, they would have a hell of a time dealing with Iran, not to mention that iran has an army of 3,833,000 while Israel's military is about 749,000 so worst case scenario for Iran, they would just simply overwhelm Israel with pure numbers, Israel may want to avoid a "ground attack" but that alone does not keep Iran from keeping it as an option. With the number of powers at play here (Iran, Israel, US, UK, Russia, China, Pakistan, Lebanon, Turkey, just to name the few that come to mind) this could easily spark into a world conflict, and with the number of troops involved (Russia, China, Pakistan, US, and Iran are all in the top 10 for most populated militaries of 2011) it could result in significant amount of casualties. The best bet for us who don't really have much of a say in the matter is to hope it never happens, for those who do, to avoid it at all costs. Couldn't Israel just send Iran a fruit basket and Iran send a thank you card, no one remembers how to be good neighbors anymore, too much pride and arrogance involved in politics, and too many lives at risk for people to just save face, doesn't make sense anymore, the world has gone to hell.
    • centralz  •  5 mths ago
      Isreal does not have the guts to pre-emptively attack Iran. But if the devil pushes them into a bellicose move, then it is on record that they have been promised a serious retaliation which will guarantee ther evacuation of isreal too
    • Cool  •  New Orleans, United States  •  5 mths ago
      So let them place their own bets. America does'nt have anymore suckers to do the betting for them. As they say at the door, "Good Luck"
    • Victory  •  Seattle, United States  •  5 mths ago
      95% of the populations from both Israel and Iran are simply good folk trying to get by. It is the leadership in both countries that put the other 95% in jeopardy for reasons of personal power, ego, greed or some misguided pride in the customs of their ancient tribal forbearers.

      In general, most people are willing to live in peace as long as they are left in peace. Then there is the other 5% that seek power. They are going to ruin it for all of us.
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