Katniss Looks To Thrive During Holidays; ‘Night Before’ & ‘Secret In Their Eyes’ Try To Survive – B.O. Postmortem
Total ticket sales this past weekend were at $174.4 million, and while that number is up 61% from last weekend, it’s 10% off from a year ago. Essentially, $20M is missing in the marketplace versus last year, and that’s mostly pegged to Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 opening lower than its predecessor ($102.66M vs. $121.9M). Here’s a look back at the week:
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (Lionsgate)
No. 1, Opening B.O.: $102.66M; Global B.O. to date: $247.16M; Est. prod. cost: $160M; Est. Marketing Costs: $55M; TV spot ad spend: $13.9M.
Lionsgate shareholders shouldn’t fret: As we mentioned all weekend, should the final Hunger Games chapter hit $300M in the U.S., the movie is bound to profit thanks to foreign presales of $140M offsetting its risk. Domestic marketing costs are a little higher than the $50M on MJ1; however, TV spend for MJ2 per iSpot.TV is less than what some of the majors fork over for their franchise titles — Universal spent close to $25M
on Jurassic World while Paramount spent $31.6M on Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation. Lionsgate sprinkled most of its TV ad spend on the major networks as well as guy sporting events like NFL football ($3M) as well as the World Series, including highly rated shows like The Voice and Empire. The film has a three-week run on Imax (it made $8.5M this weekend) until December 11, when Ron Howard’s In The Heart Of The Sea arrives to scoop them up. Lionsgate was able to churn out a 2.76 multiple at the domestic B.O. with Mockingjay 1 by keeping the film in 2,000-plus engagements through January 15. Will Star Wars: The Force Awakens hog up all the screens this year and prevent Lionsgate from emulating a similar type of distribution plan? While theater counts are a weekly Monday argument between exhibitors and distributors, one rival distribution chief illuminated the following this morning, “Star Wars is not going to be on every screen! Exhibitors know that they can’t survive on Disney alone, and other pictures will survive.” Essentially, if the theater chains aren’t going to make room for non-Star Wars fare on screen, it’s a surefire means of ticking off distributors and it will haunt them down the road.
RelatedWas It Wise For Lionsgate To Split Up ‘Mockingjay’?
The Night Before (Sony)
No. 4, Opening B.O.: $9.88M; Est. prod. cost: $25M; TV spot ad spend: $22.7M.
The R-rated raunchy comedy starring Seth Rogen, Anthony Mackie and Joseph Gordon-Levitt is falling behind the $10M where it wanted to be. Sony spent more than Lionsgate did on Katniss per iSpot.TV, with single-digit million-dollar spends on testosterone sporting events like the NFL, the World Series and the NBA as well as South Park. Keep in mind that figure isn’t even their entire U.S./Canada P&A. As cheap as this was, it will take a Christmas miracle to put Night Before in the black off its stateside theatrical run alone (it would need to be north of $100M). However, that A- CinemaScore provides some optimism that word of mouth could spread and potentially make this a cult classic in the post-theatrical afterlife. We’ve seen this concept all too often in R-rated comedies: The night that gets outta hand. Rogen has had better luck when bending the comedy genre, i.e. This Is The End where Rogen, Franco & Co. parodied themselves weathering the apocalypse. Industry projections figure Night Before will make $10M over the Thanksgiving five-day with $6M over its second FSS. That will take Night Before to north of $20M by the end of next weekend.
Secret In Their Eyes (STX/IM Global)
No. 5, Opening B.O.: $6.65M; Est. prod. cost: $19.5M; Domestic Marketing: $6.5M TV Spot Ad Spend: $10.6M.
Even though a majority of the audience came out for Julia Roberts and Nicole Kidman per CinemaScore, one studio finance source pointed out this morning, “This is not the movie that people want to see Julia Roberts in!” There’s also the fact that Katniss, who drew 57% over 25, stole all of Secret‘s older ladies. With a B- grade and a 43% Rotten score, the deck is stacked against this adult thriller. One can’t dismiss this film simply on the basis that it was an English remake of a foreign film; we’ve seen those types of pics click, i.e. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo ($102.5M). But if you’re going to remake a celebrated foreign film — in this case one where the original Argentinian version won the Oscar — you have to blow over critics first and foremost. While IM Global earned more than the production cost in pre-sales, STX split the domestic pickup price with Route 1 for an undisclosed percentage. The average P&A on a film like this is at least $20M, likely more.
Below are the top 20 films for the weekend of November 20-22 along with notables per Rentrak Theatrical:
1). The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (LGF), 4,175 theaters / 3-day cume: $102.7M / Per screen avg: $24,591 /Wk 1
2). Spectre (SONY), 3,659 theaters (-270)/ 3-day cume: $15M (-55%)/ Per screen: $4,111 /Total cume: $154.1M /Wk 3
3). The Peanuts Movie (FOX), 3,671 theaters (-231)/ 3-day cume: $13.2M (-45%)/ Per screen: $3,597 /Total cume: $99.3M /Wk 3
4). The Night Before (SONY), 2,960, theaters / 3-day cume: $9.9M / Per screen: $3,338 /Wk 1
5). Secret In Their Eyes (STX), 2,392, theaters / 3-day cume: $6.7M / Per screen: $2,781 /Wk 1
6). Love The Coopers (LGF), 2,603 theaters (0)/ 3-day cume: $4.1M (-50%) / Per screen: $1,588 /Total cume: $15.1M /Wk 2
7). The Martian (FOX), 2,086 theaters (-702) / 3-day cume: $3.8M (-43%)/ Per screen: $1,821 /Total cume: $213.1M / Wk 8
8). Spotlight (OPRD), 598 theaters (+538) / 3-day cume: $3.5M (+161%) / Per screen: $5,900 /Total cume: $5.8M /Wk 3
9). The 33 (WB), 2,452 theaters (0)/ 3-day cume: $2.3M (-60%) / Per screen: $955 /Total cume: $10M /Wk 2
10). Bridge Of Spies (DIS), 1,532 theaters (-1,156)/3-day cume: $2M (-53%)/ Per screen: $1,310 /Total cume: $65.2M /Wk 6
11). Goosebumps (SONY), 1,787 theaters (-1,018) / 3-day cume: $1.9M (-60%)/ Per screen: $1,042 /Total cume: $76.1M /Wk 6
12). Brooklyn (FSL), 111 theaters (+88)/3-day cume: $1.2M (+142%) / Per screen: $10,455/ Total cume: $2.2M /Wk 3
13). MET Opera: Lulu (2015) (FE), 900 theaters / 3-day cume: $900K / Per screen: $1,000 /Wk 1
14). Hotel Transylvania 2 (SONY), 828 theaters (-1,006) /3-day cume: $818K (-65%) / Per screen: $988 /Total cume: $166.4M /Wk 9
15). Prem Ratan Dhan Payo (FIP), 283 theaters (-4)/ 3-day cume: $629K (-74%) / Per screen: $2,222 /Total cume: $4M /Wk 2
16). Guerre Des Tuques 3D (eONE), 77 theaters (+1) / 3-day cume: $603K (-11%)/ Per screen: $7,831 /Total cume: $1.6M /Wk 2
17). Suffragette (FOC), 517 theaters (+21)/3-day cume: $520K (-49%)/ Per screen: $1,006 /Total cume: $3.6M /Wk 5
18). The Intern (WB), 514 theaters (-341) /3-day cume: $423K (-65%)/ Per screen: $824 /Total cume: $74.2M/ Wk 9
19). Room (A24), 160 theaters (+27)/ 3-day cume: $385K (-32%) / Per screen: $2,405 /Total cume: $2.9M /Wk 6
20). The Last Witch Hunter (LGF), 624 theaters (-855) /3-day cume: $342K (-77%) / Per screen: $549 /Total cume: $26.8M /Wk 5
Notables:
Carol (TWC), 4 theaters /3-day cume: $254K /Per screen: $63,378 /Wk 1
By The Sea (UNI), 126 theaters (+116)/ 3-day cume: $193K (+101%) / Per screen: $1,532 /Total Cume: $321K /Wk 2
Legend (UNI), 39 theaters /3-day cume: $87K / Per screen: $21,709 /Wk 1
Mustang (CMG), 3 theaters / 3-day cume: $22K /Per screen: $7,384 /Wk 1
Censored Voices (MBF), 2 theaters / 3-day cume: $6K /Per screen: $3,076 /Wk 1
Mediterranea (IFC), 2 theaters / 3-day cume: $6K /Per screen: $2,923 /Wk 1
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