Latest Polls Show Race Coming Down to the Wire

Presidential Poll Roundup - Oct. 23

Yahoo Contributor Network

The latest round of polls show a race too close to call. Both President Barack Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney have reasons to feel good with today's numbers. But after Obama's decisive victory in the last presidential debate, can Obama recapture the lead? Or does Romney have too much momentum?


Nevada continues to remain in Obama's column. The newest poll by American Research Group (ARG) shows Obama with a two point edge, 49-47 percent. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters with a 4 percent margin of error. Obama has maintained a small but steady lead in Nevada all year. Since the debates began, Obama's lead has narrowed, but recent polls give him a steady two- to three-point advantage.

New Hampshire

The Granite State continues to be close, with each new poll anointing a new leader. The latest ARG poll puts Romney back in the lead by two points, 49-47 percent. The survey of 600 likely voters had a margin of error of 4 percent. Obama and Romney have traded the lead back and forth twice in the last four polls, but according to the Real Clear Politics average, Obama has a sight 1.4 percent lead.


Two polls of Ohio released Monday show the state still leaning Obama's way. CBS News found Obama with a five point lead over Romney, 50-45 percent, while a Suffolk University pol put the two candidates even at 47 percent each. The CBS poll surveyed 1,548 likely voters with a 3 percent margin of error. Suffolk interviewed 600 likely voters with a margin of error of 4 percent. Real Clear Politics gives Obama an average lead of 1.9 percent. The president has only trailed in one poll of Ohio in October, and tied with Romney in two, including this latest one.


Romney is in the lead in a new Rasmussen poll released ahead of the final presidential debate. Romney had a four point lead, 50-46 percent. The poll of 500 likely voters had a 4.5 percent margin of error. Like New Hampshire, Colorado has been flipping from candidate to candidate most of the month, with Romney winning six out of 10 polls by narrow margins. His average lead, according to Real Clear Politics, is only 0.2 percent.

National Polls

National polls are equally as divided, with both candidates able to point to positive results. Both the Gallup Tracking Poll and Rasmussen Tracking Poll favor Romney. Gallup has Romney up five points, 51-46 percent, while Rasmussen shows the race closer by one, 50-46. Obama has slightly closed the gap in the Gallup poll while Romney has increased his lead in the Rasmussen poll. Six snapshot polls aggregated by Real Clear Politics and released yesterday gave Obama a small advantage, with the president winning four of them (Washington Times, CBS News, ABC News and IBD) by an average of 2.5 percent. But Romney won two of the polls (Politico and Survey USA) by the same average margin. With two weeks to go until election day, the possibility of the national popular vote winner not winning the Electoral College is becoming conceivable.

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