COMMENTARY | Following Newt Gingrich's victory in South Carolina, Mitt Romney's campaign rallied and began dominating the polls once again leading up to the Florida primary, in which Romney exited as the clear winner. This dominance seemed to hold fast during the following weeks, showing Romney as the frontrunner with Gingrich trailing behind in a somewhat distant second place.
However, the February 7 contests held in Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota have illustrated that is still not safe to count anyone out. Rick Santorum dominated the polls, receiving 55.2 percent of the votes in Missouri, 40 percent in Colorado and 44.8 percent in Minnesota. The Colorado win was especially telling, as that state was a stronghold for Romney in his 2008 bid.
According to Rasmussen, national polling still shows Romney as the frontrunner with 34 percent and Gingrich second at 27 percent. Rick Santorum currently pulls in at third with 18% and Ron Paul is in last place with 11 percent. As last night's victory shows us, however, national polling may not always be a reliable indicator when it comes to determining the final delegate count.
Following the Feb. 7 upset, Mitt Romney's campaign must retool its strategy to not only address Newt Gingrich, but also place Rick Santorum in its sights. Furthermore, from this point forward Romney may be best served by campaigning as aggressively against President Obama as he does against his GOP rivals. This posturing will solidify the perception that the primary is Romney's to lose.
Newt Gingrich, currently following closely behind Romney in the national polls, would be best served by securing his positions and showing the public a stalwart, unmoving position on key issues. He has been seen as migrating somewhat in the past, and this perception may have harmed him. Unlike Mitt Romney, Gingrich should limit the time he spends addressing Obama's politics for now and focus on a counter-attack against Mitt Romney's aggressive ads.
Between Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, it seems clear now that Rick Santorum is the most likely person to effectively challenge the two front-runners. It is unlikely that Paul will remove himself from the race at this point, but it is equally unlikely that he could present a serious threat at this point. Santorum, however, seems to have illustrated an ability to provide upsets and win unexpected delegates despite his comparatively low budget and lean staff. A Santorum victory over either of the frontrunners may be a long shot according to current polls, but it is too early to call it an impossibility given Santorum's highly conservative record when compared to either Romney or Gingrich.
The primary remains wide open. And if the last few weeks are any indicator, we can count on more suspense.
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