Lululemon’s cult following is key to future share gains

Lululemon’s (LULU) stock has seen a solid lift-off this year with shares up 14%. To keep that momentum flowing investors want the yoga retailer to deliver an upbeat outlook when it reports quarterly results on Thursday. However, some on Wall Street are losing faith.

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This week Canaccord Genuity warned the year is off to a slow start and cut its price target on the shares to $55, even though the retailer already said holiday sales were strong. “Back in January, they gave guidance for same store sales for the 4Q and it looks pretty bright,” says Christine Short of Estimize. Indeed, in a press release, Lululemon CEO Laurent Potdevin told investors comparable sales will rise as much as 7% adding, “we are entering 2015 in very good shape.”

Related: Lululemon Updates Guidance for fourth quarter of fiscal 2015

The team at Stifel says most of the good news is priced into the stock, unless the company can deliver strong 2015 guidance that reflects ongoing improvements in sales, product mix and merchandising strategies. Short believes the company has made some of those necessary strides. “They added better product mix and they have committed a lot of capital to cost service.” The team at Cowen & Company agrees with some of those points.

What Cowen and Short also agree on is what’s become intense competition for casual athletic apparel. Under Armour (UA), Nike (NKE) and Gap’s Athleta (GPS) are all clamoring for a slice of the market along with celebrities like Beyonce.

Related: Beyonce and TopShop to produce a global athletic street-wear brand launching in Fall 2015

Even with the competition, both feel Lululemon has enough of a lead to keep delivering. “I am not concerned about the competition at this point,” said Short who points to Lululemon’s loyal customers. “Its a bit cult like.”

Related: Estimize.com data on Lululemon Athletica

Lululemon is set to report quarterly earnings on Thursday before the start of trading. Followed by a 9am ET conference call.

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