This Map Determines Who Wins and Loses From the Drought
Wally Roney is a fifth-generation cattle rancher whose family has been raising livestock in Northern California’s high desert for more than 150 years.
The past three years have been some of the most challenging for Roney as the state has experienced record drought, which climate researchers say is the worst in 1,200 years. With grazing land drying up, Roney, like other sheep and cattle ranchers, has been forced to sell all of his yearlings and half his calves. “Our income is strictly correlated to the drought,” Roney said. “If we don’t have the grass, we don’t have the cattle, so we can’t survive.”
But Roney’s financial fortunes don’t just depend on Mother Nature; they’re contingent on a map. The color-coded, government-funded United States Drought Monitor Map has become depressingly familiar to Californians and other Westerners. As the water crisis has worsened, a dark red blob has engulfed the map, representing the most severe category of drought, called exceptional drought or D4.
How this map is created has been a concern for farmers and ranchers, since it affects their eligibility for disaster relief and whether they can defer capital gains taxes when they are forced to sell livestock due to the drought.
For instance, the meteorologists who put together the map had classified Roney’s area as D2, or severe drought, through 2013 and most of 2014.
The ranchers, however, have challenged the accuracy of the map, protesting that it has been slow to catch up to the reality on the ground: that their region has been suffering D4 conditions.
“Our destiny is in their hands,” Roney said. “If map authors won’t paint a true picture and they won’t correct the mistakes, what do we do? As long as they leave that skewed data in there, we’re being wronged.”
Every week, a drought map author collects data from 350 people around the country on local soil conditions, precipitation levels, climate, and observations, and puts together the drought monitor map, which comes out each Thursday morning.
There are 12 such authors who volunteer for two-week shifts, typically meteorologists drawn from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, various climate agencies, and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
When the map was first developed in 1999, the aim was to accurately depict the drought. But policymakers subsequently began using the map to determine how and where to dole out drought relief dollars.
“In the beginning, there was never any intention by the authors to provide a tool that would be used for billions of dollars in disaster relief,” said Brad Rippey, a meteorologist with the USDA and one of the authors.
“The biggest challenge we face is trying to convey drought of multiple types and scales on a singular map,” said Eric Luebehusen, a USDA meteorologist and a map author. “We’ve had emails from people telling us they can’t recall the last time they saw it this dry and that their area should be dark red, but it doesn’t work like that.”
One drawback is that the map cannot capture small-scale localized variations within the drought.
The University of California, Davis, brought ranchers and the map authors together in November to hash out their differences.
“We told them if you didn’t do it right the first time, you go back and correct it for historical purposes,” Roney said. “They didn’t. And yet our destiny is dependent on how they put together that map.”
The map authors reconsidered and did change the drought ranking to D4 for Roney’s region. But what bothers Roney is that they didn’t correct the classification retroactively.
“We didn’t receive the drought assistance money we should have,” Roney said.
Map authors say that to be objective, they can’t think of the economic ramifications of their work.
“As authors, the dollar consequences of what we ultimately depict should not enter the process,” Luebehusen said. “If we are to do the best we can at this job, then our objective is to convey the most accurate drought intensity and coverage possible.”
December has brought rain to California, but not enough. Ranchers like Roney hope the region gets more rain in the next few weeks. If it doesn’t, he’s looking at reducing his herd by half again.
“I’m just trying to survive,” he said.
Related stories on TakePart:
• Every Californian Needs to Save 290,000 Gallons of Water to End the Drought
• Meet California's Biggest Water Hogs
• 34 Surprising Facts You Need to Know About California's Drought
• California’s Drought Is So Bad, They’re Shutting Off Showers for Surfers
Original article from TakePart
