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    Market Nuggets: Vision's Meger: Comex Gold Surges After FOMC Minutes; Buy Stops Triggered

    By Kitco News | Forbes – Tue, Jul 12, 2011

    12 July 2011, 3:06 p.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  Gold is threatening its record highs after release of minutes of the June 21-22 meeting of the FOMC. The metal had a firmer tone earlier in the day on continued European debt worries. “Later in the day, the Fed minutes came out and pressured the dollar, which vaulted us up through the $1,560 level of resistance and saw a continuation higher,” says Dave Meger, director of metals trading at Vision Financial Markets. Buy stops were triggered, he says, starting around the $1,557 to $1,558 area. The Comex August futures previously had stalled around here this week, and this level was just shy of the three-week peak of $1559.30 from June 22. The portion of the FOMC minutes that appeared to trigger the moves was a discussion in which a minority of members talked about providing extra stimulus. As of 2:50 p.m. EDT, August gold was $19.20 higher at $1,568.40 an ounce.

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
    Market Nuggets: Harbor: Aluminum Fundamentals Make Current Prices 'Attractive'

    12 July 2011, 2:43 p.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  Global aluminum fundamentals, such as output costs, inventory trends, scrap and secondary demand and primary aluminum output challenges, are sending signals of “attractive value” at current prices, says Harbor Intelligence. Analysts see limited downward moves from current levels and “high odds not only of a new wave up in prices but of fresh highs in the next quarters.” Chinese demand is strong, resulting in a tight market despite record domestic production, with Chinese spot prices at a premium of $250 a metric ton to LME aluminum, Harbor says. Further, Harbor says, backwardation has emerged in the Chinese market, with spot prices higher than futures prices. “Total commercial aluminum-inventory levels in China have halved in the last three months by falling from 889k tons in late March to just 397k tons last week,” Harbor says. Further, Harbor says, a recovery in automotive-sector demand has pushed up secondary aluminum prices in North America, China and to a lesser extent in Europe, relative to high-grade prices.

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
    Market Nuggets: Copper Bounces From Early Weakness As U.S. Stocks Stabilize

    12 July 2011, 2:05 p.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  Copper overcame initial weakness to post gains, particularly as some of the early pessimism abated. Global equities were mostly weaker overnight on continuing European debt worries, and copper and other base metals initially fell as well. However, LME copper snapped back to finish up $80 to $9,650 a metric ton. At 1:38 p.m. EDT, Comex September copper was 2.65 cents stronger at $4.3945 a pound. “After markets realized that the world was not about to collapse tomorrow, prices stabilized and moved higher,” says Triland. Michael Gross, analyst with OptionSellers.com, suggests copper may have overshot lower on the recent decline due to debt fears. “Investors kind of took a sell-first, ask-questions later type of approach early on,” he says. “Once we got into the main session and the stock market opened, investors didn’t seem quite as concerned as they were earlier in the day, and markets bounced up a little bit.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average is roughly flat at the moment.

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
    Market Nuggets: ETF Securities: Positioning Shows Scope For Gold-Futures Investors To Become More Active

    12 July 2011, 10:42 a.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  Speculative net-long positioning in gold futures is at the lowest level since February, leaving room for investors to become more active in the market again, says a research note from ETF Securities.  “Although the gold price has performed well recently, gold futures speculative net long positions have remained low, highlighting limited futures investor participation in the rally,” analysts say. The most recent weekly report from the CFTC shows that managed-money accounts held a gold net long position of 177,791 lots for futures and options combined for the week ending July 5, the lowest level since Feb. 15. Gold has surged lately, largely on European debt jitters. “With the gold price having recently moved back up through its 50-day moving average…it would seem there is scope for futures investors to become more active in the market,” ETF Securities says.

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
    Market Nuggets: LOGIC's O'Neill: Profit-Taking Balances Safe-Haven Demand For Gold; More Gains Seen

    12 July 2011, 10:11 a.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  Comex gold remains underpinned by European debt uncertainty, although some profit-taking has set in lately, says Bill O’Neill, one of the principals with LOGIC Advisors. August gold hit a three-week high of $1,557.60 an ounce Monday but has backed down slightly since to $1,550.80 at mid-morning, although this is still up $1.60 for the day. “We’ve had a few profit-taking periods, including one at mid-day yesterday,” O’Neill says. “I think the extreme strength of the dollar and weakness in the euro this morning encouraged some light selling pressure and kind of balanced off the flight-to-safety demand that was in the market.” But, with the euro coming off of its weakest levels, gold is again being underpinned by the European debt worries, with an increased emphasis on Italy, O’Neill says. He describes gold’s short- and long-term chart patterns as favorable “I think the market is headed for new highs and eventually over $1,600…The debt situation is worsening and becoming something of a contagion. That’s the kind of stuff that gold thrives on. It comes down to gold as the ultimate currency.” Funds are returning to the market after liquidation earlier this summer, O’Neill says. “I think when you see the next CFTC report, you will see the funds are starting to get back in.”

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
    Market Nuggets: Trader: Gold Remains Underpinned But Facing Chart Resistance

    12 July 2011, 9:50 a.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  Comex gold remains underpinned by European debt issues, particularly as the focus widens from Greece to also include Italy and Spain, says a New York trader. Nevertheless, the market seems to have run into chart resistance for now, he says. “We’re sort of flirting with a technical breakout,” he says. “But we need to get clear of that $1,560 area.” August gold has been as high as $1,556.10 an ounce so far today after hitting a three-week high of $1,557.60 on Monday, but has stopped shy of the June 22 high of $1,559.30. “I would say the prospects are fairly bullish,” says the trader. “There is not a lot of great news out there. So even if this fades for a day or two, it looks to me like there is enough interest in gold to probably propel it higher.”

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
    Market Nuggets: BBH: Risk Appetite Takes Another 'Hit;' Dollar Strengthens

    12 July 2011, 9:12 a.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  With “no tangible positive developments” on debt issues for periphery European nations, risk appetite “took another hit” early Tuesday and the dollar continued to strengthen, says Brown Brothers Harriman. The euro has been below $1.40, not far from the 200-day moving average of $1.3907, BBH says. The main focus of the market is a sharp rise in Italian and Spanish debt, with the yield on Italian 10-year bonds rising 42 basis points to 5.67% and the yield on Spanish bonds up 35 basis points to 6.03%, BBH says. “If officials don't manage to get current market trends under control and prevent a further rise in Italian yields, it will be difficult to see how Italy can refinance the EUR 120-130 bln it needs in coming months without paying crippling interest rates,” BBH says. As the third-largest euro-zone country, Italy is too big to finance out of the rescue fund, BBH adds. “Comments overnight suggests EU leaders are still far from any decision on how to prevent contagion from spreading further,” BBH says. Metals traders keep close tabs on foreign-exchange moves due to their ability to impact base and precious metals alike.

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
    Market Nuggets: Barclays: 1H Investor Interest Most Stable For Gold Among Precious Metals

    12 July 2011, 8:44 a.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  Investor interest held up in gold better than the other precious metals during the first half of the year, say analysts with Barclays Capital. “Short-term appetite is down from January but not overextended, while ETP (exchange-traded product) holdings are broadly unchanged,” Barclays says. “Although this is the weakest half-year ever for gold ETPs, physical demand has continued to emerge upon price dips. Furthermore, the escalation of European sovereign-debt uncertainty (and) concerns over inflation amid low interest rates continues to set a favorable backdrop for gold. Going forward, in the near term, we believe gold offers the most supported gains across the precious metals, but beyond the current demand concerns, both of the PGMs retain their constructive fundamentals, and growth in physical investment demand is set to tighten the market further.”

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
    Market Nuggets: R.J. O'Brien: Copper, Crude Dragged Lower In 'De-"Risk' Environment

    12 July 2011, 8:27 a.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  Copper, along with crude oil, is softer as part of a general “de-risk” trade, says Janet Mirasola, managing director of R.J. O’Brien & Associates. Assets that fell on Monday are under pressure again Tuesday amid the European debt crisis, she says. The negative impact on the financial system has left investors shunning risk, she says. Asian equities tumbled, European stocks are lower and U.S. stock-index futures weaker in overnight screen trading. “A ‘sea of red’ is flashing across most monitors this morning as commodities and equities are trimmed as risky assets from most portfolios,” she says. This has spread to industrial commodities such as copper and oil, she continues. Just after 8 a.m. EDT, Comex September copper was 2.45 cents softer at $4.3435 a pound, while Nymex August crude oil was down 58 cents to $94.57.

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
    Market Nuggets: Gartman Reducing Exposure In Gold Against The Euro

    12 July 2011, 8:20 a.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  Newsletter writer Dennis Gartman says he is reducing his exposure in gold against the euro not because he has lost faith in it, but because gold’s rise against the euro might be “overextended” for now. Gold hit record fixings Monday afternoon against the euro and sterling at 1,106.88 euros and 976.705 sterling, the London Bullion Market Association Web site shows. Tuesday’s edition of The Gartman Letter notes gold was up 9% against the euro in a bit more than a week and up 6.2% against sterling in eight trading sessions. Gartman, who has long advocated holding gold in non-U.S. dollar terms, says suddenly many market watchers are talking about the gold/euro trade. Thus, he is reducing his exposure by one-third to one-half. “We wish to be quite clear here: we are not abandoning gold for we remain quite bullish of it over the long run, but it is over-extended, and is especially so on EUR terms. When those who had scoffed at an idea suddenly embrace it as their own, it is time to reduce one’s exposure….”

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
    Market Nuggets: Open-Interest Record Hit For Nymex Palladium Options

    12 July 2011, 7:59 a.m.

    By Kitco News

    http://www.kitco.com/
    (Kitco News) --  Nymex palladium options hit a new open interest record of 8,734 contracts on Friday, CME Group says. This surpasses the previous record of 8,604 contracts from July 1. Open interest refers to the number of open positions at the end of the business day.

    By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

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