COMMENTARY | I saw a blogger remark that the current Republican primary system is a bit like speed dating, where daters get a minute or two to pitch themselves to other daters. If that were to happen, which South Carolina voters would a particular Republican candidate to be a good match? Which types of South Carolina voters would "date" which candidates?
In this analysis, I look closely at data collected from a sample of South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary voters conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.
The first myth analyzed is that the "corporate raider" Mitt Romney would appeal more to men than women, but that myth is busted. In fact, his appeal to men and women is roughly equal. Among the GOP candidates, he leads among female voters. The candidate who picks up much more men than women is Gingrich, while Santorum garners almost twice as many women and men, perhaps because his message appeals to Michele Bachmann voters, if not Bachmann herself.
Another myth is Romney appeals to relatively younger voters. But the poll shows he derives his support from older voters, capturing both the 45- to 64-year-old voters, as well as the over-65 crowd. Given his policies lean toward deep cuts in the government budget, and much of that is tied up in Medicare and Social Security, this is very interesting.
The third myth is those younger than 30 love Ron Paul the most. But the InsiderAdvantage poll shows that in fact Newt Gingrich leads among the youngest voters, a bit surprising given that none of them could vote when he last served in office.
Here's another shocker about Gingrich. Half of blacks in the survey picked the former Georgia congressman, with no one else getting even 15 percent support among this group. Some may find that shocking, given his recent comments about blacks should ask for a paycheck instead of a welfare check. But perhaps that message resonates. Additionally, they remember Gingrich's debates with Herman Cain, giving the latter a stage the national media was slow to provide.
Perhaps the biggest finding is that the race is tightening, with Romney clinging to a lead of less than 2 percentage points over Gingrich (23.1 percent to 21.3 percent), just a few days before the key primary. Santorum and Paul still remain in the hunt (each with 13 percent), with Huntsman and Perry with less than half of that. It's more support for the Rasmussen poll than the 21-point Reuters poll lead for Romney. In other words, South Carolina 2012 could be closer than some think.
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