Matchup: Titans @ Jaguars
Thursday Night Football
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
The Week 16 slate has a number of ugly Vegas totals. Titans-Jags is among them at 40.5 points, fourth lowest of the week. This is a game to fade in daily and most re-draft lineup decisions. Box-score fireworks are highly unlikely. ... I struggled to pinpoint many Jaguars worth firing up versus Tennessee. The Titans' primary defensive weakness is on the ground, where they've coughed up 1,039 yards and nine touchdowns on 215 carries (4.83 YPC) to running backs over their last seven games. They're 28th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA. Toby Gerhart would be the best deeper-league flex option in Jacksonville's backfield. With Denard Robinson on I.R., Gerhart led Jags backs in Week 15 snap rate (41%) and touches (15). Rookie Storm Johnson was second in line with six carries, but allowed a sack in pass protection and may not get as much action this week. Jordan Todman remained the passing-down back, touching the ball four times. Gerhart was a mega-bust in season-long fantasy, but I think he's worth a look on FanDuel at his near-minimum price tag ($4,700). He should be a safe bet for 12-plus carries, some passing-game usage, and potentially a goal-line plunge. Just one TD would make Gerhart well worth the low-risk investment.
Blake Bortles has accounted for 18 turnovers compared to 10 touchdowns this season and has absorbed four or more sacks in seven of his last nine games. He took an unholy eight sacks in last Sunday's loss to Baltimore and sprained his right foot in the fourth quarter. Bortles will apparently try to play on Thursday night, but the Jaguars showed their concern by promoting Stephen Morris from the practice squad to serve as a third quarterback behind Bortles and Chad Henne. I usually prefer defenses playing at home to those on the road, but I think Tennessee's defense is worth a look as a streamer. I'd start the Jaguars' defense over the Titans', however. ... Bortles' target distribution since the Jags' Week 11 bye: Allen Hurns and Cecil Shorts 31; Marqise Lee 30; Marcedes Lewis 13; Gerhart 9; Todman 8. ... The Jags' usage of their top three receivers is as similar as those target totals suggest. There is no substantive fantasy differentiation between Hurns, Shorts, and Lee. Hurns primarily aligns in the slot, while Shorts has inherited Allen Robinson's old theoretical big-play role and Lee is the movement-Z receiver. I like Lee's talent the best of the lot, but wouldn't feel comfortable starting any of them in fantasy title week. ... Lewis hasn't seen more than four targets in any game since Week 1 and is best employed as a blocker. Look to Saturday and Sunday's games for Week 16 tight end streamers.
With Zach Mettenberger (shoulder) out indefinitely and Jake Locker (shoulder) on I.R., the Titans will turn to 32-year-old journeyman backup Charlie Whitehurst against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is thought of as a weak defense, but quietly ranks sixth in the NFL in sacks (38) and has allowed just two passing TDs over its last three games. The Jags can also be pesky against the run, for instance holding Justin Forsett to a 16-48-0 rushing line in last week's loss to Baltimore. In Week 6, the Jaguars held Titans running backs to 69 yards on 22 carries (3.14 YPC). Whitehurst started that game and completed 17-of-28 throws for 233 scoreless yards, taking three sacks. Playing at home in a game with little projected scoring and facing one of the league's weaker backups, I think the Jaguars' defense makes for a very attractive Week 16 streamer. ... The Titans' backfield is an utter mess in terms of touch and snap distribution, and Tennessee had no success running on Jacksonville the last time these clubs met. Bishop Sankey and Shonn Greene are safe to avoid in title-week lineup decisions. ... Delanie Walker's box-score lines in Whitehurst's three 2014 starts are 5-84-1, 3-57-0, and 2-17-0. He's a dart-throw TE1 against the Jags, albeit a top-12 play at fantasy football's weakest position. ... Kendall Wright will apparently attempt to play Thursday night with a splint on his broken hand. He had one catch for six yards in the Titans' Week 6 date with the Jaguars, securing his lone target. You're entirely on your own trying to start Titans wide receivers in Week 16.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 17, Titans 14
