Winning a poll or two, given margins of error and other temporal factors, do not mean a lot in the overall scheme of things when it comes to politics, but when four separate polls indicate that a certain politician has the lead, popularity spikes and momentary trends tend to take a back seat to the reality of the numbers.
Presidential candidate Michele Bachmann, coming off a great showing in the first Republican Presidential Debate, has literally jumped from barely competing to actually contending (albeit distantly) with frontrunner Mitt Romney for the lead in national polls and putting the former Massachusetts governor in the runner-up position in Iowa. But she hasn't just done it once or twice. Bachmann has now won four straight Iowa polls.
Despite the Politifact outings of numerous falsehoods, the gaffe comparing herself to John Wayne, her insistence that her version of the history of slavery is correct, and signing a controversial anti-gay "Marriage Vow" that denigrated the modern African-American community by comparing it to slavery, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., has found traction in Iowa for her presidential campaign.
And that traction could be important. The Iowa Caucus kicks off the primary and caucus elections in 2012 that will see a Republican candidate nominated in August to contest President Barack Obama in the national election in November.
Bachmann's momentum was evident when the Des Moines Register poll, released on June showed her just one point behind Mitt Romney.
On July 11, Bachmann won a poll conducted by the Iowa Republican, 25 percent to 21 percent.
The next day, the American Research Group released a poll that placed the Minnesota Congresswoman over the former Massachusetts governor by 3 percent (21 to 18).
The following day, July 13, Magellan released a poll indicating that Bachmann might be doing even better than neck-and-neck and within the margin of error. She took that poll with 29 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Romney only received 16 percent of the Iowa vote.
Mason Dixon wrapped up the week's polling, releasing their survey on July 17, also showing the controversial Congresswoman in the lead over Romney, 32 percent to 29 percent.
Although polls are not guarantors of winners and losers, they are usually good indicators as to how a population thinks. In these examples, that thinking, at least among the Republican electorate, is trending Michele Bachmann's way. The Iowa Caucus is nearly seven months distant, which can be a very long time politically, and many things can happen in the interim to derail (or bolster) a campaign. I good indicator that Bachmann can keep up the momentum will come in August at the Iowa Straw Poll.
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