Congresswoman Michele Bachmann's run for the Republican nomination for president gained steam Saturday as she won the Ames Straw Poll, which is considered an indicator of a campaign's strength. Since its inception in 1979, the Ames Straw Poll has only twice picked the candidate who would go on to win the Republican nomination. In 2007, Mitt Romney won the Ames Poll, but in 2011, frontrunner Romney spent few resources in Iowa.
Given the poll's poor historical performance in predicting winners, does Michele Bachmann gain anything from winning in Ames?
Show me the Money
The answer: yes and no. The Ames poll shows the evolution of Bachmann from Sarah Palin's mini-me to serious Republican contender. Bachmann's win points to an organized campaign. The Ames Straw Poll is like a state fair on steroids because it has political repercussions. Candidates actually rent space on the grounds, with the more attractive spaces costing more money.
According to the Washington Post, Texas Rep. Ron Paul paid $31,000 for the most prized space this year. Candidates also have the option to pay the admission price for attendees of the poll and bus in supporters. While many may think the straw poll resembles a Tammany election, it does show which candidates have resources and which do not. Newt Gingrich was unable to make a serious run because his campaign has run into financial trouble. Bachmann has showed, at the very least, she has the money and volunteers to compete for the nomination.
A Small Victory
The Ames straw poll is not, however, what the Bachmann campaign claims it is. Bachmann's website reads, "Iowans delivered a strong message to Washington: America cannot afford four more years of Barack Obama and his failed liberal policies." Bachmann won 4,832 votes Saturday. Amy Myers, the high school sophomore who challenged Bachmann to a debate last year, may be able to get more votes as class president than Bachmann did in Ames. The poll represents too small of a sample size to claim any significant victory.
Where's Romney?
Unfortunately for Bachmann, Mitt Romney remains the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. An Aug. 9 USA Today/Gallup poll showed Romney leading the Republican field with 24 percent support, according to The Wall Street Journal. Bachmann only registered 13 percent, which didn't even crack the top three. Yet Romney only mustered 567 votes in Ames, mainly because he chose to ignore the straw poll.
Another problem for Bachmann is the media coverage of the straw poll. At one time it may have been easy to inflate the significance of minor victories, but the 24-hour news cycle has done away with that. And when the poll is explained, it loses credibility as a determinant of future success.
The Incumbent
For President Obama, the Ames straw poll was the latest venue of bruising attacks from the right. Every candidate blamed the president for America's continuing economic woes. In her victory speech, Bachmann jabbed, "All that we need to do to take the country back in 2012 is right here in this room in Ames, Iowa," reports The Daily Caller.
With the election more than a year away, Obama can do little to address the accusations. But don't think he didn't have a close eye on Ames. Bachmann is the polar opposite of Obama, and such a sharp contrast may benefit the president. Were Bachmann to shock the country and actually win the GOP's nomination, the Obama campaign would be smart to draw attention away from the economy and focus on social issues. According to the Christian Post, Bachmann was confronted by a gay teen the day before her victory in Iowa. Negative media coverage such as this will continue to hurt Bachmann; it depicts her as a fringe candidate.
The Ames poll is a step in the right direction for the Bachmann campaign. But it will be remembered more for sinking the ships of candidates such as Tim Pawlenty rather than carrying Bachmann to victory. The congresswoman faces the same challenge she did before: convincing the American people she is not too extreme to be president. It is yet to be seen whether Americans will be convinced.
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