Michigan, where Mitt Romney was born and raised and where his father served as governor, should have been the candidate’s firewall against conservative insurgents who would deny him the Republican nomination. But it’s not working out that way.
“He’s fighting for his political life in this state,” said pollster Richard Czuba, who’s firm Glengariff Group conducted a poll for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV published on Thursday.
The poll shows Rick Santorum leading Romney 34 percent to 30 percent, which is barely inside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Santorum is viewed favorably by 68 percent of likely primary voters, while 22 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Romney's favorability rating is also 68 percent, with 23 percent having an unfavorable opinion.
But Romney's favorability is considerably softer than Santorum's: Just 21 percent of likely voters say they have a "very favorable" impression of Romney, while 39 percent say the same of Santorum. As Czuba put it, "right now Michigan is not Mitt Romney's firewall." Read more.
—Steven Shepard and Jill Lawrence
NATIONAL JOURNAL’S PRIMARY REPORT
Reports: Romney Backer to Switch to Santorum Today NEW!
[National Journal, 2/17/12] Santorum is in line for a key endorsement on Friday from Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, who had earlier endorsed Mitt Romney, CNN and The Washington Post reported. The Ohio primary is one of the big prizes on Super Tuesday, March 6.
Gingrich to Get Another $10 Million from Casino Backer NEW!
[CBS News, 2/17/12] Casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson will give an additional $10 million to the pro-Gingrich super PAC, Winning Our Future. Adelson’s family has already given the super PAC $11 million – basically keeping Gingrich’s presidential campaign afloat. The next donation will take place within days.
Obama Campaign Weighs Santorum
[Wall Street Journal, 2/17/12] Obama’s re-election campaign has stepped up its examination of Santorum’s record amidst a discussion over whether to attack the former Pennsylvania senator. Santorum is edging Romney in recent polls, prompting the president's campaign to shift its narrow focus on Romney.
Santorum Shifts Gear in Motown
[The Hill, 2/16/12] Santorum surprised observers by throwing only sporadic jabs at Romney in a major address Thursday at the Detroit Economic Club, focusing on his stance on economic issues and highlighting his new perceived status as a frontrunner. Meanwhile, Romney released an ad that literally shows a man drowning, symbolizing America's debt.
The Long Slog: Projecting the Republican Race Through June NEW!
[Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 2/16/12] Widely quoted political analyst Larry Sabato takes a detailed look at all the upcoming races (with helpful maps!) and concludes that, based on the data, “it is possible to conclude that Romney could be in better shape to win the nomination than he looks right now.” Of course, that all depends on whether he can win Michigan and Ohio.
Romney to Auto Industry: Glad You’re Not Dead. Really.
[National Journal, 2/16/12] The more Romney talks and writes about his stand on the 2008 and 2009 auto bailouts – stated in a New York Times op-ed headlined "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” – the more fodder he creates for critics. Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder told voters to “stop dwelling” on the issue, while comedian Jon Stewart mocked Romney’s ad on growing up in Michigan.
Maine to Recount Caucus Votes After Protests From Paul Base
[The Hill, 2/16/12] The Maine Republican Party is asking for a recount of votes from last week's caucuses after reports of missing and incorrect vote totals threw Romney's narrow win over Paul into question. The state GOP chairman has admitted that the state party made numerous clerical errors in counting the results, but insisted that the errors did not change the outcome.
Five Ways Romney Can Attack Santorum (and Why They May Not Work)
[New York Times, 2/16/12] Romney's traditional strategy to bring down opponents is to attack, attack, attack. The New York Times' Michael Shear suggests five different avenues of attack Romney could take, but cautions that none of them are foolproof.
Now Mitt’s Refusing to Debate
[Salon, 2/16/12] Steve Kornacki writes that Romney’s decision to pull out of the now-canceled CNN debate that was set to take place just a few days before Super Tuesday is a calculated risk: Skipping debates is traditionally something only an assured winner does, but Romney is not quite there yet.
Santorum’s Revisionist History
[National Journal, 2/16/12] Santorum’s fierce, blanket condemnation of “bailouts” before the Detroit Economics Club on Thursday raises questions about how well he understands the history of the 2008 financial meltdown – not to mention economics.
What's Really Behind Sheldon Adelson's Backing of Newt Gingrich? (Besides $11 Million)
[Investor's Business Daily, 2/16/12] Why would anyone spend $11 million on anything? IBD's Andrew Malcolm examines what the billionaire Newt backer is hoping to accomplish with his infusion of funds.
Romney Pushes for Right-to-Work
[Detroit News, 2/17/12] As Romney pushes a labor issue that’s a favorite among conservatives, a new poll conducted by The Detroit News shows that 64 percent of Michigan Republicans support right-to-work legislation. That might sound like good news to Romney, but in the area where opposition to right-to-work is greatest among Republicans — Macomb County — Romney has his lowest support in the state.
Gingrich: I Could Lose Georgia
[National Journal, 2/16/12] After suffering a setback on Thursday when CNN cancelled the one debate scheduled in Georgia before its primary, the 10-term former congressman from that state, Gingrich, said he’s unsure he can win the Peach State.
Santorum Criticizes Press For Focusing on Backer’s ‘Joke’ NEW!
[National Journal, 2/17/12] Santorum distanced himself from one of his most prominent backers, millionaire conservative Foster Friess, on Friday following the supporter’s controversial comments on contraception. "It was a bad joke, it was a stupid joke. [It's] not reflective of me or my record on this issue," Santorum said. He later told National Review that the whole flap was "crap."
8 Rockers for Republicans
[Politico, 2/17/12] Politico takes a look at the big name musicians who have recently shown some love for the GOP candidates, like Kelly Clarkson for Ron Paul and Megadeth's Dave Mustaine for Santorum.
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