Two new polls released on Wednesday appear to indicate that the gap in Michigan between GOP presidential candidates Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney has once again disappeared, leaving the state's primary in reach for either man with less than a week to go. The Detroit Free Press reported that those two polls, along with the rest of the most current major surveys, all feature voting percentages that fall within the individual polls' margin of error.
What kinds of numbers did the two new polls show regarding the primary race in Michigan?
The polls, one completed by the Michigan Information and Research Service (MIRS) and the other by NBC News/Marist, both showed that Romney had regained a small 2 percent lead over Santorum in the last few days. The MIRS poll showed that likely voters now reportedly favor Romney by a margin of 32 percent to 30 percent for Santorum, while the NBC News/Marist poll calculated those numbers at 37 percent for Romney versus 35 percent for Santorum, according to MSN.
Have all the polls begun to show Romney in the lead again?
No. Rasmussen Reports released a poll on Tuesday that placed Santorum still in the lead by a margin of 38 percent to Romney's 34 percent. Like the polls that showed Romney in the lead, however, the Rasmussen numbers fall within the particular poll's margin of error. All of which means that like most of the polls taken over the last few days show, the two men are basically tied for first place among likely voters in Michigan at this point.
Are either Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich pulling significant numbers in Michigan?
Not really. The NBC News/Marist poll placed Paul in a distant third with 13 percent of the vote, while Gingrich was in single digits with 8 percent. The Rasmussen poll placed Paul and Gingrich closer together, with 10 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
Which groups of voters are Santorum and Romney pulling to their individual sides?
Public Policy Polling noted on Sunday that Santorum is doing well with those that identify themselves as Evangelicals, Protestants, Tea Party supporters, and with voters that say they are "very conservative." Romney is trending well with seniors, Catholics, moderates, and with voters that say they are "somewhat conservative." Of note is that the likely vote in Michigan also appears to be splitting somewhat along gender lines as well, with men leaning more towards Santorum and women more often voicing a preference for Romney.
Vanessa Evans is a musician and freelance writer based in Michigan, with a lifelong interest in politics and public issues.
