The presidential election is 11 months away and is already contentious. No state is safe ground for any candidate, but four -- Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania -- are critical. They hold 77 electoral votes. In the 2010 Census, Wisconsin maintained its 10, Ohio dropped from 20 to 18, Florida rose from 27 to 29 and Pennsylvania moved from 21 to 20.
Common Issues
President Barack Obama won all four states in 2008, but Democrats lost heavily in 2010. Republicans gained dozens of legislative, and 18 congressional seats in the four. Now they control the governors' offices and all of the state legislatures. State issues may vary, but all Republican policies follow a coordinated national agenda.
The Electoral College chooses the president, but every state requires its electors to follow the popular vote. That vote, and public sentiment, polarize around middle class issues and could mean the difference between victory and defeat.
Wisconsin
Gov. Scott Walker began his term by abolishing public employee unions. His stand energized and enraged Democrats, union members and most of the American middle class so much that demonstrators have been occupying the Capitol Building since February. Democrats regained two of five Senate seats in the recall elections and Walker is fighting his own recall battle.
Ohio
Gov. John Kasich and the Republican legislature also tried to abolish public employee unions, but Democrats and labor unions rallied the voters to defeat that effort soundly in November's referendum. Two legislators introduced a state constitutional amendment to permit recall elections.
Florida
Many Florida voters are retired transplants from northern cities and diverse backgrounds. Gov. Rick Scott lost a major issue by requiring drug testing for adult welfare applicants. Federal law denies benefits to convicted drug abusers. Scott insisted most welfare recipients are junkies and Florida would save millions of dollars by denying benefits. Federal, not state, dollars pay welfare benefits. And Scott's program revealed welfare recipients have a lower drug use rate than the general population and the state actually lost money. A federal judge halted his plan on Constitutional grounds. Florida law prohibits recall elections.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania law doesn't permit recall elections, but Gov. Tom Corbett's approval ratings are erratic, especially since his first budget cut more than $1 billion from public education. The Keystone State is known for its reliable Democratic strength in the southwestern (Pittsburgh) and southeastern (Philadelphia) metropolitan corners. The rural, T-shaped remainder of the state contains more trees than people and voters can lean in either direction, depending on the issues. Despite a massive Capitol rally in May, Democrats just didn't have the votes to defeat the budget bill.
Former U.S. House Speaker Tip O'Neill always said "All politics is local." Regardless of how well they understand politics or economics, voters don't generally distinguish among local, state, and federal politicians on Election Day. The majority of voters in these four states supported Obama in 2008. When the economy collapsed, they gambled on the Republicans in 2010. Now, they know that their jobs, homes, health care, children's education, and retirement savings are gone or in jeopardy. They know that their lives are getting worse, not better. Meanwhile, Republican and Democratic politicians just keep hollering at each other.
Republicans market their messages well, but Obama's 2008 campaign proved that outstanding community organizing can raise both cash and votes to win an election. Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania voters might decide whether he can do it twice.
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