For Mitt Romney, Politics is Chess, Not Checkers
When Mitt Romney enthusiastically embraced the idea of Puerto Rican statehood during January's Hispanic Leadership Conference, there was no shortage of theories on his motives.
Was he trying to curry favor with Hispanics in the final days before Florida's primary? Was he working to secure the endorsement of Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño, a rising young star in the Republican Party? Viable theories all, but they overlook a simpler reality: Puerto Rico awards 23 delegates, and its March 18 primary is the month's only winner-take-all contest.
Politics is chess, not checkers.The politician who can plan multiple moves ahead of his opponent is always at an advantage.
That principle has manifested itself throughout this year's presidential race. Romney's team gained an early edge by building a long-term strategy around new RNC rules mandating proportionate delegate allocation, and since then, Romney has remained several steps ahead of his competitors by executing that strategy.
Now, in an elongated contest where every delegate counts—and amid a stretch of southern states where he was always expected to struggle—that prescient planning is paying huge dividends.
Romney's unceremonious sweep of several U.S. territories will likely be a footnote in a plodding path to the Republican nomination. But it's also true that these victories vindicate Romney's relentlessly forward-looking strategy of leaving no stone unturned in the quest for mathematical inevitability
—Tim Alberta
Alabama primary, 50 delegates; Hawaii caucuses, 20 delegates; Mississippi primary, 40 delegates; American Samoa caucuses, 9 delegates
NATIONAL JOURNAL’S PRIMARY REPORT
DEEP SOUTH PRIMARIES
Presidential Campaign Trail Goes Through Mississippi, Alabama
[National Journal, 3/13/12] Rarely do the small, Southern states of Alabama and Mississippi get much attention, let alone a full-throated pander, from a presidential candidate. But this year, three states likely to be overlooked in the general campaign – Mississippi, Alabama and Hawaii – will get their moment in the national spotlight.
Born-again Christians Dominate GOP Vote in AL, MS NEW!
[Associated Press, 3/13/12] Early exit polls show that born-again and evangelical Christian voters have turned out in higher numbers in the two Southern states to vote tonight than any primary state previously. The Washington Post has an exit poll interactive worth clicking on if you'd like to follow along at home.
GOP Race Tightens in the South
[Wall Street Journal, 3/12/12] Mississippi and Alabama, which both hold contests Tuesday, have been considered difficult terrain for Romney with their plentiful evangelical Christian and conservative voters. But recent polling and voter interviews show the former Massachusetts governor now running even with Santorum and Gingrich.
Alabama and Mississippi Primaries: Mitt Romney Could Seal Deal in Dixie NEW!
[Politico, 3/13/12] Santorum and Gingrich are both running against Romney on a platform of being the most conservative candidate in the race. But if they don't win in two of the most conservative states in the U.S. tonight, how can they continue to claim that conservative mantle? Such a scenario might effectually hand Romney the nomination.
The Dirty Little Secret of the Alabama and Mississippi Primaries NEW!
[Washington Post, 3/13/12] Romney and Gingrich proclaimed their love of grits, Santorum has called the South his home game, but, as Chris Cillizza points out, none of the three really hit home with true Southerners. The problem? There's a Southern culture and attitude that the candidates simply do not have.
Super PAC Ads Dominate GOP Race in Alabama, Mississippi
[Bloomberg, 3/13/12] With fundraising lagging, super PACs supplied 91 percent of the 5,592 campaign ads that ran in Alabama and Mississippi. Romney’s Restore Our Future super PAC contributed the most, airing 2,098 ads in Alabama through March 11. Restore Our Future aired 65 percent of all ads in the two states.
Polling in Deep South Has Posed Challenges
[New York Times, 3/12/12] Nate Silver writes that polls in Southern states traditionally have a bad track record: If you looked at the average of polls in Alabama in advance of the 2008 primaries, for instance, you would have predicted the wrong outcome to both the Republican and the Democratic races.
Santorum Downplays Expectations Ahead of Southern Primaries
[National Journal, 3/12/12] Even as he barnstorms Mississippi and Alabama with days packed full of meet-and-greets and rallies ahead of the two states’ primaries on Tuesday, Santorum seems to be trying to lower expectations by saying that his rivals have spent more time and money here. But Santorum’s fundraising prowess has actually grown with his polling numbers.
Alabama Governor Votes for Santorum
[National Journal, 3/13/12] Though he declined to endorse any candidate prior to today’s primary election – he earlier proclaimed that he was “not excited about any of them” – Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley today cast his vote for Santorum. Bentley announced his vote on the syndicated “Rick and Bubba Show, and the Santorum campaign tweeted the news.
THE RACE AHEAD
Poll: Romney Ahead of Santorum Nationwide
[National Journal, 3/13/12] A Bloomberg National Poll shows Romney is supported by 37 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents nationwide, compared with 27 percent for Rick Santorum, 13 percent for Newt Gingrich and 11 percent for Ron Paul.
Republican Donors in Limbo
[Roll Call, 3/13/12] The extended Republican presidential primary has left many GOP donors paralyzed — unsure of whether to invest in the upcoming battle against President Barack Obama or focus on Congressional races.
Caucus States Drama Far From Over
[Wall Street Journal, 3/12/12] Months after the campaigns moved on, caucus states like Iowa and Colorado are back in the spotlight. The four remaining campaigns are jockeying for advantage in these states, where delegates aren’t bound by the voters’ wishes but are instead divvied up by an arcane – and rarely relevant – state convention process.
Gingrich Vows to Stay in the Race
[National Journal, 3/13/12] No matter what happens in Tuesday’s Mississippi and Alabama primaries, Gingrich says he will remain in the race, and he believes the combination of delegates being amassed by him, Santorum, and Paul will keep Romney from hitting the magic number of 1,144 delegates. Gingrich also said he wants to have a "60-day discussion" between the end of the primary season and the convention about who will be the GOP nominee.
Romney Team Sees a Plus in Gingrich’s Persistence
[New York Times, 3/12/12] Gingrich’s resilience in the race has so far allowed Romney to dodge what he has feared most: a dominant, singular rival with the ability to unify the ranks of conservatives who have been slow to warm to the notion that Romney might become the GOP’s nominee.
Ron Paul Still Playing the Delegate Game
[National Journal, 3/13/12] Paul is still playing the delegate game going into Tuesday's four Republican contests, despite his last-place standing in the GOP field. He said Tuesday on CNBC that he is upsetting the status quo in Washington with his support from younger and independent voters.
Romney: Santorum to the Left of Me on Economy
[The Hill, 3/12/12] When asked if he’d pick a vice presidential candidate more conservative than he on the economy, Romney quipped, “Well, that would preclude Rick Santorum.”
Romney Will Pass on NCAA Tournament Predictions NEW!
[Associated Press, 3/13/12] "I'm not plugged in well enough this year to do that," Romney told reporters of his NCAA predictions. Too bad sports fans won't be able to compare Romney's picks to then-Sen. Barack Obama's picks on the campaign trail in 2008.
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