Most Polls Show Swing States Leaning Towards Obama

Presidential Poll Roundup -- Nov. 5

Yahoo Contributor Network

With one day left before election day, the presidential race appears to be leaning towards President Barack Obama. According to multiple poll watching sites, including Real Clear Politics, FiveThirtyEight and, Obama is favored to win the Electoral College over Gov. Mitt Romney. New polls released over the weekend and today indicate why. In the most important battleground states, Obama is ahead of Romney, and in most cases has been steadily ahead for weeks. While the popular vote is likely to be close, the Electoral College math favors the president. The most recent polls help illustrate why.


Ohio is the key to the election. Both campaigns and most every pollster and pundit agree, whomever wins Ohio will win the election. Thirty-eight polls have been taken since the beginning of October, with six new polls since Friday. The president won five and tied the sixth. Rasmussen calls the race a tie, with both candidates at 49 percent. The University of Cincinnati gave Obama a one-point lead, 50-49. The Columbus Dispatch found Obama up by two points, 50-48 percent. Public Policy Polling and Survey USA both found Obama with a five-point lead. And an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll gave Obama a six-point lead. Of the 38 polls taken since the first of October, Obama has won 30 of them. Romney prevailed in only four polls, and tied in four others.


The candidates split four polls of Florida released since Friday, but the advantage seems to be Romney's. A Times-Union poll found Romney up by five points. The Tampa Bay Times gave Romney a six-point lead. An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll found Obama up by two, and in the closest poll of the campaign to date, Obama led Romney by a single respondent in the last Public Policy Polling poll.


President Obama leads Romney in two out of three new polls of Virginia. Romney has led in most polls of Virginia since October, but Obama has narrowed the race in the last week. Rasmussen gave Romney a two-point lead, 50-48 percent. Public Policy Polling found Obama in the lead, 51-47 percent, while NBC/WSJ/Marist had Obama ahead by a single point.

New Hampshire

Out of five new polls of New Hampshire, President Obama won four of them and tied the fifth. An American Research Group poll found the candidates tied at 49 percent. Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling both found Obama ahead of Romney by 2 percent. The University of New Hampshire poll gave Obama a three-point lead, and a poll by New England College found a four-point edge for Obama.


Three polls of Iowa released over the weekend show a close race, but the state leans towards Obama. The American Research Group found Romney ahead by one point, 49-48 percent. Obama won the other two. Public Policy Polling gave Obama a two-point lead, and the Des Moines Register found Obama ahead by five.


The news media is making a big deal out of the Romney campaign's sudden interest in the Keystone State, which it hopes to be the upset that catapults Romney to victory, and a Tribune-Review poll found the candidates tied at 47 percent each. But Romney hasn't held a lead in any polls of Pennsylvania since February, including two other polls released this weekend, taken after the Tribune-Review poll. Public Policy Polling gave Obama a six point lead, and a poll by the Morning Call had Obama ahead by two points.

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