Who was better for the California economy, Biden or Trump?

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The nation enjoyed historically low unemployment under Donald Trump until the Covid pandemic. It’s also enjoying low jobless rates since Joe Biden became president.

But prices have soared since Biden was sworn in. And Trump endured a deep, if brief, recession.

The current and former president debated Thursday, and a key topic was the one polls have shown is most on voters minds, the economy.

“We had the greatest economy in the history of our country. We had never done so well,” Trump said, a claim widely disputed by economists. The economy grew for more than eight straight years in the 1960s and 10 years between late 2009 and February 2020..

He maintained “nobody ever cut taxes like us,” a disputable claim. President Ronald Reagan led an effort to cut income tax rates 25% over three years in early 1980s. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center has found that Trump’s 2017 tax cut helped wealthy earners far more than others.

Trump charged Biden was responsible for high inflation. Prices spiked for a variety of reasons, notably a spike in gasoline prices. Biden critics charged that massive federal spending to boost the economy also played a role.

Biden had a different take on his stewardship of the economy. “The economy collapsed. There were no jobs,” under Trump, Biden said.

He recalled how unemployment jumped during the pandemic. The rate hit 14.8% in April 2020, but bounced back quickly and was 6.4% in January 2021 when Trump left office.

Biden charged that Trump “didn’t do much at all” to help the economy. Under Trump, Congress quickly passed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act in March 2020, which expanded unemployment benefits and other aid programs.

The act, which passed with bipartisan support, was regarded as crucial in the fast recovery from the Covid economic downturn.

All the numbers offer no easy conclusion about who presided over a more robust economy. It’s a question whose answer largely depends on an individual’s political views and personal experience.

Here’s a guide to figuring it out:

Unemployment

California’s unemployment rate dropped slightly to 5.2% last month. Employers added 43,700 jobs, the highest number since October. But the state jobless rate also remained well above the national average of 4% and was the highest of the 50 states.

In February, 2020, before the pandemic sent the economy reeling, the state rate was a seasonally adjusted 4.4%.

It climbed into double digits that spring, and was reported as 8.7% when Biden was inaugurated in January 2021.

Inflation

Price increases have slowed dramatically. Prices were up an average of 7.3% in California in 2022, but are projected to increase 3.1% this year, according to the UCLA Anderson forecast.

Nationally, prices were up at a 3.3% pace in the year ending in May, well below the 9.1% of June 2022, the highest rate of increase since November, 1981.

During the Trump administration, inflation in California was 3.7% in 2018, its highest annual level during his administration.

Gasoline

.California’s prices have been the nation’s highest for some time, peaking at $6.44 for a gallon of regular gasoline in mid-June 2022. Thursday, the average in the state was $4.81, according to AAA.

When Trump took office in January 2017, the average was $2.79 in the state, according to federal Energy Information Administration data. Four years later, when Biden was sworn in, the price was $3.21.

Gasoline prices are affected by several factors, often beyond the control of U.S. presidents–oil supplies, supply and demand, refinery shutdowns and so on.

Housing

In an effort to reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate 11 times during the Biden administration. Mortgage rates last week for a 30-year fixed rate loan averaged 6.87%, according to Freddie Mac, which tracks rates.

The average rate during the week in January 2017 when Trump took office. was 4.09%. During the week in January 2021 when Biden was sworn in it was 2.77%.

The recent interest rate spike has been no help to housing. In May, the California Association of Realtors reported existing single family home sales were down a seasonally adjusted annualized 6% from the same month last year. Median price in May was $908,040, up 0.4% from April and 8.7% from a year earlier.

While most economic forecasts see interest rates dropping later this year, the Fed has not made the rate cuts that had been anticipated.

Growth

California’s economy grew at a slightly stronger pace than the nation.

“While there are still challenges ahead, notably State and local government finance, homelessness, and out-migration, the forces driving California’s economy remain robust,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, director of the UCLA Anderson forecast in his mid-year assessment of the state’s economy.

He also threw up a huge caution light, citing “sectoral weaknesses.”

Other experts have also cited layoffs in the tech industry, struggles by many small businesses and a slow recovery by the hospitality sector as factors that could hamstring the state’s economy.

Consumer confidence

If consumers don’t spend, the theory goes, workers don’t produce goods and don’t need to provide the same level of services.. Consumer confidence in the economy has been shaky lately.

“The slide in consumer confidence has not manifested into any noticeable pullback by consumers yet, but clearly they are growing pessimistic again due to the lack of new progress regarding immigration, inflation, and poor government leadership.,” said Mark Schniepp, director of the Santa Barbara-based California Economic Forecast.

The Conference Board, a New York-based research firm, surveys confidence each month. Its findings this month have been mixed.

“Their view of the present situation improved slightly overall, driven by an uptick in sentiment about the current labor market, but their assessment of current business conditions cooled,” said Chief Economist Dana Peterson in a statement.