Biden is out, Harris is in. But Florida is ‘probably in the same position’

For the first time in decades, Florida isn’t a presidential election battleground. Joe Biden’s decision to bow out of the 2024 race isn’t likely to change that.

The Sunshine State, once among the most coveted prizes in any presidential race, has proven elusive for most Democrats in recent years, as Republicans have racked up a massive voter registration advantage and rebranded the state as a Mecca of modern conservatives and Donald Trump’s MAGA movement. For months, Florida polls have shown Biden trailing Trump — sometimes by double-digits.

But Florida isn’t likely to experience the kind of earth-shaking political change that more-competitive states might expect to see in the wake of Biden’s abrupt exit from the presidential race, political operatives on both sides of the aisle said.

Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster who worked on former President Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign, said that, at least for now, Florida remains off the table for Democrats. The focus, he said, will be on battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan – a handful of states known collectively as the “blue wall.”

“President Biden and the Democrats have made a very difficult yet clear-eyed decision, and that decision means doing everything possible to get 270 electoral votes in the states that they have the best chance of winning,” Amandi said. “It remains to be seen if Florida can be an expansion state, but right now, the focus is not on Florida. It’s on the blue wall.”

Biden’s exit from the presidential contest on Sunday ended a weeks-long drama within the Democratic Party that centered on concerns over the 81-year-old president’s age and fitness for office following a disastrous performance in the first presidential debate last month.

Within minutes of announcing his decision to bow out of the race, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him as the Democratic nominee. But even some Florida Democrats acknowledged that having a new candidate atop the ballot wasn’t likely to alter the course of the election in a major way.

Florida state Sen. Shevrin Jones, the chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, said that he would support Harris for the Democratic presidential nomination and called on his fellow Democrats to do the same. He insisted that Florida Democrats are putting in the work to improve their chances in the state.

But replacing Biden with Harris on the ticket isn’t the kind of lightning in a bottle that would change things overnight, he said.

“I think we’re probably in the same position,” Jones said. “We’re in a position of progression. We have an opportunity to bring along individuals from the Black community, women, from the fraternity and sorority community in Florida to get behind someone that can galvanize people.”

Jones’ GOP counterpart, Florida state Rep. Alex Rizo, who leads the Miami-Dade Republican Party, said that the growing number of calls from Democrats for Biden to drop out of the race made it virtually impossible for the president to remain as his party’s nominee.

Still, he said, that decision is unlikely to give Democrats a better chance of capturing Florida in November.

“It doesn’t change anything in Florida,” Rizo said. “Florida is solidly Republican and we will be and we’ll show that Nov. 5. The Democrats are in disarray here in Florida and nationally. There’s no way for them to win a statewide race here.”

Florida Democrats on Sunday largely said that they would coalesce around Harris as their new nominee, insisting that doing so is necessary to avoid the kind of internal fighting that might further compromise their electoral chances in November.

Democrats have hopes this fall beyond the presidential race. The party is hoping to unseat U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, and eat into Republican advantages in Congress and the Florida Legislature.

U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost, a Democrat who represents an Orlando-area congressional district, endorsed Harris for the Democratic nomination on Sunday, but said that it was incumbent on her to earn the party’s support. Frost said that he hoped that having Harris, who’s 59, on the ticket would motivate younger voters to turn out for Democrats in November, but acknowledged that turning the political tides in Florida remains a heavy lift this year.

“I’m not going to lie and say we’re going to flip the state in one cycle. It’s going to take time, it’s going to take work,” Frost said. “Hopefully, her being at the top of the ticket will help alleviate some of the concerns that I know a lot of voters had.”

Joe Geller, a delegate to the convention and former Miami-Dade Democratic Party chairman, said he was saddened on Sunday by Biden’s decision, claiming that Democrats had just lost their “strongest candidate.”

He said that he is “inclined to follow” Biden’s recommendation and cast his vote for Harris, noting that Democrats had “just had a circular fire squad” over whether Biden should remain as their nominee.

“We don’t need another one,” he added.

Despite the shakeup at the top of the ticket, Geller said that he believes that Democrats have a chance of winning Florida in November.

“I think Florida is in play,” Geller said. “I thought it was in play before. I certainly think it’s in play now.”

Juan Cuba, another delegate and the president of the Miami-Dade Democratic Hispanic Caucus, said he is also supporting Harris for the Democratic nomination and predicted that the party would coalesce behind her candidacy quickly. He said it’s “impossible” to know right now what effect Biden’s exit would have on the presidential race in Florida. Still, he added: “don’t count Florida out.”

“Florida’s traditionally been a state that’s won at the margins,” he said. “I think we had a good chance before [Biden dropped out of the race], so we’ll see how things play out. People are still digesting the news.”