Biden-Trump debate: Here are five questions for California voters to consider

When President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump debate Thursday, what will matter to California voters may be not so much which man wins—Biden is far ahead and looks likely to stay there—but what it means in tight races around the state.

What impressions about their party do the presidential candidates leave? Do they motivate reluctant voters to vote? Do they help or hurt candidates for other offices? Will Donald Trump say nasty things about California? Will Joe Biden’s age turn off reluctant voters?

There are no predictable answers for what’s coming Thursday. Biden and Trump will debate for 90 minutes, starting at 6 p.m. PDT, at the CNN studios in Atlanta. CNN anchors Dana Bash and Jake Tapper will moderate.

Never in American history has there been a televised debate between an incumbent president and a former president. Never have general election presidential contenders debated so early in the year.

“Traditionally the general election officially started with the convention nominations but since both Biden and Trump locked up their nominations, this debate could be when folks who aren’t paying attention start to tune in,” said Christian Grose, academic director of the University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute..

Trump is scheduled to be formally nominated at the Republican convention the week of July 14. Biden’s nomination is due during the Democratic convention the week of August 18.

The conventions could reinforce impressions that could start to form Thursday. Here are questions that analysts will be seeking to answer in the aftermath of the debate:

Will the debate matter in other races?

California remains a very Democratic state, and Trump is on a path to once again lose the state in a landslide, according to a May 23-June 2 survey by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

“Given the partisan nature of the state, a lot of people made up their minds a while ago,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC survey director.

But not necessarily about other offices. Republican candidates for Congress in California have largely been careful to avoid tying themselves too closely to Trump.

GOP Senate nominee Steve Garvey didn’t attend last month’s state Republican convention, and his campaign emphasizes how he is “running for all the people, not specifically for Republicans, Democrats, or Independents,”

Two Central Valley House incumbents, Reps. David Valadao, R-Hanford, John Duarte, R-Modesto, Ken Calvert, R-Corona and Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita are in races rated as tossups by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to gain control of the House next year.

Impressions of Biden and Trump are likely to matter in close races. “We know presidential results are the best predictor of congressional results,” said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, which analyzes congressional races.

How much does the Israel-Hamas war matter to voters?

Democrats have been divided, sometimes bitterly, over how to deal with the war.

During the campaign for the Senate nomination this winter, candidates differed on whether an immediate ceasefire was needed.

Polls, though, show that despite the protests and the divisions, the war is not a big vote motivator.

PPIC asked Californians their thoughts on the most important issue facing California. Thirty-six percent cited economic issues, while 19% said housing costs and availability and 13% said homelessness.

“Very few people are raising global conflicts,” said Baldassare..

What will sway independents?

They’re not crazy about Trump or Biden, or about Republicans or Democrats. There’s some question whether they’ll turn out. Twenty-six percent of independents told PPIC they would vote for “someone else.”

The risk here, analysts said, largely involves what Trump may say, given his history of criticizing the state and Biden’s ability to align more closely with most state residents’ views on incendiary issues such as abortion..

“Trump could criticize California with derisive terms. This could hurt vulnerable California Republicans in competitive districts who are pro-California and Republican,” said Grose.

Independent voters could also be more likely to be swayed by reminders that Democrats support abortion rights.

“Biden will likely raise the issue as it helps him in swing presidential states but also is an issue that is particularly hard for suburban Republicans in the House,” Grose said.

Is Biden’s age a big problem?

Biden is 81. Trump is 78. Should one of them stumble and reinforce stereotypes about aging–memory loss, confusion, slow speech, and so on–it could influence an undecided voter.

“Persuadable voters will be watching to see whether Biden can appear strong and commanding, pushing back on the narrative that he is too old for another term. For Trump, they will be watching to see if he is in command of the issues rather than coming across as bombastic and off-putting,” said Tom Hogen-Esch, a political science professor at California State University Northridge.

Some voters, particularly younger ones, may be wary of voting for someone who seems too old, experts said.

“Age is probably a dominant thing because it’s immutable. Global and domestic circumstances come and go. Biden is only getting older,” said Rubashkin. “For voters it’s an ever present thing they have to reckon with.”

Trump, inaugurated as president in 2017 at age 70, would be the oldest president ever sworn into office if he wins this time. But, said Rubashkin, “Trump does not present as old as Biden does.

Who presided over the best economy?

It’s going to be a big topic, with both candidates claiming they presided over a period of robust prosperity.

Both have solid cases to make regarding California–and both can be criticized.

Biden was president as the rate of inflation in California averaged 7.3% two years ago. But it’s since been climbing at a steady, calmer, pace and is expected to increase 3.1% this year, according to the UCLA Anderson mid-year forecast.

California recently has logged the nation’s highest unemployment rate. The rate in May was 5.2%, but that’s way down from 2020’s double digit pandemic levels.