With Democrats in crisis, could an energized Republican Party impact California elections?

Republicans left their convention Friday convinced they’re so unified, so in tune with voters on big issues like the economy and crime, that California voters will flock their way in November.

Of course, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump probably has little hope of winning this heavily Democratic state, where a Republican hasn’t won a statewide race since 2006.

But party officials and convention delegates said that, as the party unified over the course of three days in Milwaukee, they gained momentum in several down-ballot California races — including five Congressional districts regarded as tossups.

Republicans plan to woo voters by painting California as a crime-infested mess where prices are stubbornly high, good jobs are hard to find and immigrants flow freely across the border.

“I think we continue to talk about the message of hope,” California Republican Chair Jessica Millan Patterson told The Bee. “Everyone has felt and is feeling the difference between what a Trump administration has brought them and what a Biden administration has brought them.”

She cited party registration data showing Republicans on the upswing, noting that in October, about 150,000 people registered to vote in California as Republicans while Democrats lost 106,000 voters.

Independent analysts say the seats now held by Republican Reps. David Valadao of Hanford, John Duarte of Modesto, Ken Calvert of Corona, Mike Garcia of Santa Clarita and Democratic Katie Porter of Irvine are currently too close to call. Porter is leaving Congress.

Part of the California GOP’s political hope is that discouraged Democrats simply don’t show up to vote this year.

“Lots of people are really discouraged on the Democratic side, particularly on the left side. And there are a lot of Democrats who are closet Republicans,” said Ken Loo, a Belmont businessman.

The new optimism is driven in part by the growing consensus among Democrats that President Joe Biden should bow out of the race. Seven Democratic House members from California have so far called on Biden to step down, including Rep. Adam Schiff, who is running for California’s US Senate seat, as well as Reps. Jared Huffman, Jim Costa, Mark Takano, Mike Levin, Scott Peters and Zoe Lofgren.

“If Democrats aren’t excited they might not vote, and independent voters might not vote for the Democrat,” said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic political strategist based in Sacramento. “If those two things happen, it’s more of a problem in swing districts.”

The top of the ticket plays a big role in congressional elections. In 1994, Acosta worked to keep Democrats in House seats when then-President Bill Clinton was unpopular.

“We lost a bunch of stuff nationwide. California lost a bunch of seats,” he said. It was a similar story in 2000 when former Gov. Gray Davis was at the top of the statewide ticket.

Candidates “have to run races where (they) run sort of away from the person who’s a drag,” Acosta said.

He noted that’s already the case in some Central Valley districts where Gov. Gavin Newsom is less popular. “Just on the natural, some of those places aren’t great for Democrats. That’s why you see a lot of these Democrats running (more as) independents” and sidestepping national politics.

“If people are smart they’re gonna talk about district first, not national politics,” Acosta said.

High prices and unemployment

Republicans realize that to attract swing voters in the state they need to tone down their stands on cultural arguments. Conservative positions on issues like abortion and transgender rights can be tough sells in California.

The party platform barely mentions abortion, saying it’s a matter for the states, and the subject was rarely mentioned in convention speeches this week.

Voters are more concerned about everyday problems, such as inflation and gasoline prices, said Betsy Morin, chair of the Sacramento County Republican Party. She and other state Republicans are pushing hardest on their economic message. They cite the state’s stubbornly higher unemployment rate, which has been the highest in the nation in recent months.

While California continues to see job increases, unemployment remains relatively high because difficulties among small businesses, sluggish consumer spending and layoffs in the tech industry.

Democrats point out that while the cost of living hit a 40-year high two years ago, it’s settled down to a 3% annual rate now.

Blake Marnell, a San Diego salesman, offers a broader perspective: ”Inflation is 3% now. But after months and months of inflation of 8 or 9% that doesn’t mean inflation is low. Prices are still higher.”

Still, Republican messaging about the cost of living may resonate in California — and in turn impact a handful of ballot initiatives, including one that would eventually raise California’s minimum wage to $18 per hour, and two bonds asking voters to borrow $10 billion each for schools and climate projects.

“You’re starting out with 40% of the voters not supporting those bonds,” Acosta said, citing recent polling by the Public Policy Institute of California. “If people are super worried about the economy and cost of living, does that have an impact on things that cost money? Potentially.”

Reducing crime a priority

Crime is another GOP talking point. And having Proposition 36, which would increase penalties for certain drug crimes, on the ballot, only helps the party, according to California Republicans who attended the national convention.

“People are switching parties, frustrated with the criminal justice system,” said Ricardo St. Louis-Franklin of Rancho Cucamonga, who works in law enforcement.

Van Tran, a Westminster attorney, added: “That will help for sure. Lax public safety and prosecutors have hurt the state. At the end of the day people left and right want safe families and safe streets.”

A strong showing by “inspired” Republicans in November will give Prop. 36 a better chance of passing, said Mary-Beth Moylan, a law professor at the University of the Pacific’s McGeorge School of Law, who tracks ballot initiatives.

“People are horrified by what they see on the streets of California. Especially if they’re able to publicize it a lot as somehow being about homelessness and drug addiction, it may pass even without a super strong Republican turnout,” Moylan said.

Nicole Nixon reported from Sacramento.