Germany's plan to halve military aid to Ukraine is a gift to Trump, expert says

• Germany's draft budget for 2025 would cut military aid to Ukraine by half.

• It's not yet final, and that amount may well increase.

• But the optics are terrible, with possible ripple effects in Europe and the US, an expert told BI.

A draft budget approved by Germany's government shows the country is planning to halve its military aid to Ukraine next year.

The draft budget slashes the amount promised to Ukraine to $4.35 billion in 2025, compared to the roughly $8.14 billion it is receiving this year, Reuters reported.

At a press conference on Wednesday, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner pointed to a $50 billion loan that the G7 agreed in June, using frozen Russian assets, as well as other European funding agreements.

Lindner said these have "secured" Ukraine's financing "for the foreseeable future," according to Reuters.

A spokesperson for the finance ministry told Business Insider that Germany "expects that the military needs of Ukraine will mostly be met by these G7 measures."

The budget is far from final, and Rafael Loss, a Berlin-based policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told BI that the seemingly draconian budget may not ultimately result in vastly reduced funding for Ukraine.

Nonetheless, the move has alarmed onlookers to the Ukraine war, and comes at a time when US support looks less clear under a potential Donald Trump presidency.

A 'Hail Mary' budget

This year's draft budget is a "hard compromise" — a product of Germany's government trying to please a wide range of people with a "Hail Mary" ahead of an election year, Loss told BI.

Politico reported that it was the product of all-night negotiations between the government's diverse coalition.

The budget will only be finalized by parliament, "probably in November this year," the finance ministry spokesperson told BI.

Last year, Germany's draft budget for Ukraine started out with just $4.35 billion earmarked, but after passing through parliament, by the end of the year it had doubled.

Loss said that it's "very likely" that the $4.35 billion in the current budget "will not be the final numbers."

"I can see a way for Ukraine to at least receive the amounts of aid that it has received in the past," he said.

A 'home run' for Trump

Loss said it's "very likely" that Trump could use the announcement as a political stick.

Trump could latch onto the news as a sign that European countries are relying on the US to pick up the slack — an argument he's repeatedly made regarding NATO defense spending.

There are fears that Trump will scale back or even totally halt US aid to Ukraine.

"It's a home-run message for the MAGA camp that America needs to stop subsidizing European security," Loss said.

And Trumpworld doesn't need much persuading on that front.

In a recent interview, Trump's vice presidential pick, JD Vance, said: "I gotta be honest with you, I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other."

'Why shouldn't others follow suit?'

Outside of the US, there's also a potential ripple effect in Europe.

"The optics are, of course, terrible," Loss said. "A lot of eyes are on Germany when it comes to boosting European defense capability."

Germany is the second-biggest donor country by volume of military aid to Ukraine and is Europe's biggest economy.

In recent months, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly urged Europeans to send more money to Ukraine.

As such, the draft budget is a "moral hazard" for the country, Loss said.

"Just a couple of months ago, Scholz was running around Europe badgering other EU leaders to do more for Ukraine just as Germany had done," he said.

Other Ukraine allies could now be tempted to make the same arguments and slash their own contributions, he said, adding: "Why shouldn't others follow suit?"

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