Who Kamala Harris picks for her running mate will show where her campaign sees its path to victory

• Kamala Harris' likely running-mate contenders come from key states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.

• Political experts say Harris' choice will signal her campaign strategy.

• They said it would reveal whether Harris plans to target the Rust Belt, Sun Belt, or broader appeal.

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign is choosing her running mate, and her pick will provide insight into her battle plan for November.

Govs. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, and Andy Beshear of Kentucky, as well as Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, are among the names being floated.

Although most prospective candidates share a similar demographic — white, male, and younger than President Joe Biden — they come from different states that could be pivotal in securing an electoral victory.

Five experts on American politics told Business Insider that Harris' choice would likely reveal her campaign's early strategy — building a path to 270 electoral votes through the Sun Belt or Rust Belt, or by creating a dynamic ticket with broad national appeal.

Shapiro would signal a Pennsylvania-first strategy. Cooper would show Harris on the attack.

Pennsylvania plays a big role in the calculus of winning the Electoral College. With 20 electoral votes, winning the battleground state would likely be a crucial part of both former President Donald Trump's and Harris' campaigns.

"Pennsylvania is the center of the political universe," Thomas Gift, the director of UCL's Centre on US Politics, said in an email to BI.

"Not only will its 20 electoral votes loom large for both candidates, but its demographics — as one political strategist put it, Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between — mean that how it tips will likely be a bellwether for how Trump and Harris perform in other states," he added.

Choosing Shapiro, the state's governor, could significantly bolster Harris' ticket there, Gift said.

Chuck Rocha, a political consultant and Democratic strategist, told BI that selecting Shapiro would show the campaign is "very serious about doubling down in the Rust Belt states."

"I think it's showing that they want to protect the blue wall," Rocha said, referring to traditionally Democratic states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

It's hard to imagine Harris losing Pennsylvania but achieving wins in Georgia and Arizona, Rocha said, so picking Shapiro would "definitely show the head nod to Pennsylvania."

Kevin Fahey, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nottingham, agreed but told BI that a Shapiro pick may indicate some trepidation in Harris' campaign.

"It would be a signal that the Harris campaign realizes that they're in very deep trouble in the Upper Midwest and the Rust Belt area and they have to cling on to Pennsylvania," he said.

Fahey added that it may indicate a strategy to "eke out a win" in Michigan, lose Wisconsin, and try to "claw back" Arizona.

He said that choosing Cooper of North Carolina, a more challenging state to win, or Beshear of Kentucky, which Democrats are unlikely to gain, would demonstrate a different approach.

"They'd be saying: 'We want to go on the attack. We think we can pursue a few more states and open up the map,'" he said.

Beshear — charisma over geography

Fahey said choosing someone like Beshear would be an "outside-the-box choice" because it wouldn't help geographically but that "he might help demographically."

Kentucky is a safe Republican state. The last time it voted for a Democrat in a presidential election was 1996. In 2020, Trump beat Biden there by about 26 points.

But Fahey said choosing Beshear, who is 49 and one of America's most popular governors, would show that the campaign is trying to project a "youthful" energy and a charisma that may have national appeal — a strategy that would prioritize national numbers over a state-centric approach.

Plus, he's already been an attack dog against Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance, going after him for his Appalachian credentials.

Kelly could signal a strategy of doubling down on Western appeal

David Barker, the director of American University's Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, told BI that the Harris campaign would now be calculating where its strengths lie — is it in the South, the West, or the Rust Belt?

He said Harris, who has presumed appeal in the Western swing states of Arizona and Nevada, given their proximity to her home state of California, would, in effect, be doubling down on her "Western appeal" by selecting Kelly, who represents Arizona.

Barker said the strategic calculations he suspects they'd be making include whether such a choice would sew up things in those states or be redundant.

But he said that picking Kelly not only would signal that Arizona is in play but also would indicate that the campaign views him as having a broader national appeal.

"That is, would Kelly do better in the Midwest than Shapiro would in the West, etc.? My guess is that the answer to that question is yes," he said.

Barry Burden, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told BI that a Kelly pick would signal thinking about the bigger picture.

Burden said that Harris' path to victory would involve needing to win the blue-wall states Trump won in 2016 — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — and that Kelly could still be a boon to the ticket outside Arizona.

"He is not beloved in his home state but has managed to attract Hispanic votes that could be helpful in other states," Burden said.

On top of that, he added: "His record as an astronaut and his wife's tragic shooting are also unique factors that no other VP pick would bring."

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