Polling shows initial impact of Harris replacing Biden in NC, other battleground states

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — Initial polling in North Carolina and most other key battleground states shows former president Donald Trump continuing to lead, but Vice President Kamala Harris gaining back some support since President Joe Biden announced he would exit the race.

In the days since Biden decision to withdraw and to endorse Harris, Harris quickly amassed enough delegates to become the Democratic Party’s nominee at next month’s convention and take on Republican nominee Trump in November.

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A poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies shows 46 percent of North Carolina voters backing Trump compared to 43 percent backing Harris. Four percent support independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The last poll the group conducted in North Carolina before Biden exited the race showed Trump leading Biden 45-39.

Emerson College also conducted polling in other key battleground states this week that found Trump either narrowly ahead or tied with Harris.

“It’s fair to say the race is a reset now and appears to be anybody’s ball game,” NC State political science professor Steven Greene said. “The overwhelming majority of Biden support transfers. And Harris has bolstered areas where Biden was soft, especially with important Democratic constituencies.”

Greene pointed to signs of Harris gaining support among young people, as well as Black and Hispanic voters compared to Biden, particularly after his scrutinized debate performance last month.

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This week, Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio called the change in polls “the Harris honeymoon”.

“Before long, Harris’ ‘honeymoon’ will end and voters will refocus on her role as Biden’s partner and co-pilot,” he wrote. “While public polls may change in the short run and she may consolidate a bit more of the Democrat base, Harris can’t change who she is or what she’s done.”

Harris faces a key test in the coming days as she weighs who to choose as her running mate. Gov. Roy Cooper is among those being considered, along with about a dozen other people according to the Associated Press.

Cooper declined to say Thursday if he has received a request for documents as part of the formal vetting process. Other people reported to be on the list of potential running mates include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

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While Cooper could potentially help the ticket as Democrats try to flip North Carolina after Trump won it twice before, Greene says there are many other factors at play.

“It’s not about one state,” Greene said. “It’s about a handful of states. And that’s why I’ve been saying Roy Cooper is such a great choice. The message he sends is moderate southern white man that transcends state boundaries.”

Mitch Kokai, senior political analyst at the conservative John Locke Foundation, noted there are people in the mix from other battleground states who may be an even higher priority for Democrats.

“Democrats have to have Pennsylvania,” Kokai said. “They don’t have to have North Carolina. So, maybe that’s more of a focus with Shapiro or Mark Kelly out there in Arizona. If they pick Roy Cooper, it’s going to be because they think there’s a real legitimate shot that he’s going to make a difference. I don’t know that you could look at the picture right now and say 100% that Roy Cooper wins the state for Democrats.”

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