It sure feels like the hottest July ever, but is it actually? Here’s what forecasters say

We know it’s been “hotter than July” in Miami to borrow a title from Stevie Wonder. That’s not just a general feeling of malaise whenever we’ve occasion to walk outside and as the National Weather Service in Miami issues yet another heat advisory for Saturday.

“We’ve had a fair share as far as July has gone,” acknowledges Ana Torres-Vazquez, a meteorologist with the weather service.

This must be the hottest July, right?

KNOW MORE: All those heat advisories? South Florida on track for another scorching summer

July heat advisory figures for Miami

Here’s the surprise, though. For all the swelter we’ve endured we would have wagered this July would have had more heat advisory days than last July numbered. We’d have been wrong. Thus far, Torres-Vazquez tells us that Miami-Dade County has had 18 heat advisory days to this point.

But from July 1 to July 27 last year in 2023 we had 23 advisories and that also included two excessive heat warnings, Torres-Vazquez said after checking the stats.

The weather service in Miami-Dade issues a heat advisory when the heat index — the “feels-like” temperature when relative humidity is factored in with the actual temperature — is forecast to be 105 degrees or higher for at least two hours. An excessive heat warning is triggered when the heat index is to hit 110 degrees or higher for at least two hours.

We fall short of the total — 16 days vs. 23 — up to Saturday’s steamy date for all of July.

“This makes sense,” Torres-Vazquez explained in a phone chat with the Miami Herald.

“Last year we had a little bit more of a southwestern flow set up over South Florida, which meant that it was inherently hotter over portions of the east coast metro area,” she said. “This year, we’ve had a couple of factors that have contributed to that heat, including several Saharan air dust intrusions and much warmer sea surface temperatures around the peninsula. However, we haven’t had that southwesterly flow. We’ve had more of an easterly flow setup for most of the time, and that has helped keep the heat a little bit more limited compared to last year.”

Saturday’s heat advisory runs through 7 p.m. and indicates a heat index of 103 to 107 degrees for all of Miami-Dade and Broward. The actual temperature forecasts a high around 90 Saturday and Sunday and upper 80s Monday through the work week.

A heat advisory has not been issued for the Florida Keys, where highs are forecast in the low 90s through the week.

Chance of rain, thunderstorms

A front will be pushing through Florida’s peninsula between Sunday and Monday and that should help the moisture levels increase, Torres-Vazquez said. “That should allow for more showers and thunderstorms to form, particularly across east coast areas where we haven’t really seen that much activity.”

The slight uptick in rain and storm chances means a 40% rain or storm chance Saturday. Sunday daytime expect 20% rising to 50% at night. Monday is at 30% until 2 p.m. when storm chances grow likely at 60%. The rest of the week ranges from 20% to 50% through Friday.

The Keys could see isolated thunderstorms Sunday through Monday night with scattered thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Friday. The chances are lower than in Miami, however, running 10% to 30% Tuesday through Friday.