Trump picking J.D. Vance doesn’t matter much in ’24. But it’s huge going forward | Opinion

As always, there will be a flood of analysis in the coming days about how Donald Trump’s choice of running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, will affect the presidential race. We’ll hear about whether he can move certain states or voter groups and how he’ll match up with Vice President Kamala Harris.

The reality, though, is that the pick doesn’t matter much for this election — or not nearly as much as it will matter for the next one.

Party comity is sure to be on display this week at the Republican convention in Milwaukee, especially after the assassination attempt on the GOP standard-bearer. But once Trump is done, either by losing or finishing a second term, the party will have serious internal arguments to resolve about policy and tone.

Consider two of the largest issues. On foreign policy and America’s role in the world, there couldn’t be a bigger contrast than Vance and Nikki Haley, the runner-up to Trump this year for the nomination. Vance, a former Marine, has been vocal about avoiding “forever wars” such as engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan, and he’s been particularly skeptical of American involvement in Ukraine.

These views are somewhat unfairly tagged “isolationist.” A better description would be a narrow definition of American interests and a reluctance to engage on anything short of the highest priority.

Haley, a former U.N. ambassador under Trump, has been a robust backer of U.S. support for Ukraine. She, too, gets unjustly defined as a warmonger — even from some fellow conservatives — but suffice it to say that a Haley administration would be more willing to engage the military than a President Vance.

Vance and some other conservatives, like Trump, are much more willing to have government direct the economy, or at least try to influence it. Their trade policies would make for a much different world than the free-market principles that other potential 2028 candidates — Ted Cruz, anyone? — would espouse.

Floridians Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, who have both mixed and matched traditional conservatism with some of Trump’s MAGA priorities, will also be factors.

There’s another reason that the VP pick is less impactful: the extraordinary contours of an election featuring two presidents.

This race is about Trump and Joe Biden. Americans know them well, and each brings an unusual burden. For Biden, it’s his age and cognitive abilities. Let’s not forget that a mere 48 hours before Vance was unveiled — and before shots rang out at a Trump rally — questions of whether Biden could stay in the race and have a chance to win dominated politics. His party is fractured.

For Trump, it’s about his unpredictability, his whopper lies (especially about the 2020 election) and the fierce loyalty and opposition that he inspires.

Both men are old, so perhaps the running mates matter a little more than usual. But with rare exceptions, people vote for a president, not a vice president.

So, instead of a candidate who might have been more of a steadying influence (Doug Burgum), a governing partner (Glenn Youngkin) or a demographic boost (Rubio), Trump has chosen someone who can carry forward the MAGA mantle. Vance is young, ambitious and aggressive.

Even if he has four fantastic years as VP, though, there will not be a coronation in 2028. We tend to think vice presidents are much more politically powerful than they are. By then, it will have been 40 years since a sitting vice president ascended to the White House, when George H.W. Bush followed Ronald Reagan. Before that, it hadn’t happened in 150 years. (Obviously, other VPs have ascended through deaths, and two — Biden and Richard Nixon — won the presidency after leaving the No. 2. spot.)

If the Trump-Vance ticket is victorious, Vance will have four years to build his profile. His opponents will do the same. In the never-ending American electoral cycle, this race starts almost immediately.

And it makes sense, because the battle over conservatism’s direction never really ends. This portion of it will be very much out in the open.

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