Read Virginia’s Tea Leaves: This Election Is Chaos

Two hotly contested seats in Virginia’s primary on Tuesday are providing insight into how much influence Donald Trump and pro-Israel lobbying groups have over our elections.

The once-mighty Trump endorsement continues to deteriorate: Trump-endorsed election denialist Senator John McGuire’s race to oust incumbent Republican representative Bob Good remains too close to call as of Wednesday when vote tallying paused for the Juneteenth state and federal holiday. McGuire led by just 327 votes—0.52 percent—over Good. In response to the razor-thin margins, Good took to social media to sprinkle a touch of election denialism of his own, asking for “full transparency from the officials involved” in counting and certifying votes, as if that wasn’t already how the election certification process is run.

Good has courted controversy both with his efforts to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and with his early endorsement of Florida governor Ron DeSantis’s failed presidential campaign. Good has struggled to maintain his MAGA bona fides by demonstrating his undying love for Trump, who he’s described as “the best president of my lifetime.” Good made an appearance in New York City outside the courthouse to support Trump in his ill-fated hush-money trial. His appearance there sparked a brutal response from Trump who declared he’s “BAD FOR VIRGINIA, AND BAD FOR THE USA” before giving McGuire his “Complete and Total Endorsement.” Despite efforts from Trumpworld to bolster McGuire, the infighting has largely left Virginia voters confused.

Further complicating Virginia’s primaries this week, pro-Israel lobbying groups continue to dump enormous resources into Democratic races across the country, despite data consistently showing that voters are primarily concerned about the economy, not with Israel. In New York, the lobbying effort has made a primary between incumbent Representative Jamaal Bowman and MAGA-funded Westchester County Executive George Latimer the most expensive House primary in U.S. political history.

Early showings from other primaries have suggested efforts from the pro-Israel lobby are largely paying off—except in Virginia’s 10th congressional district. In the crowded race with a dozen candidates, pro-Israel lobbying group Democratic Majority for Israel PAC reportedly backed Eileen Filler-Corn to replace Representative Jennifer Wexton, who is retiring. On Tuesday, Filler-Corn landed in an abysmal fourth place, picking up just 9.3 percent of the votes.

The winner of that race, Virginia senator Suhas Subramanyam, received more than 30 percent of the vote. DMFI doesn’t seem too unhappy with the result, however, praising Subramanyam’s “commitment to Democratic values and his support for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship,” and describing him as a “proud pro-Israel candidate.”

“Democrats in [Virginia’s 10th congressional district] have proven once again that being pro-Israel is not just wise policy, but also winning politics,” the group wrote.

How all this infighting will factor into the general election remains to be seen. The main message from Virginia’s primaries, both Democrat and Republican, seems to be that the 2024 election season has definitely activated chaos mode.