Why Biden’s debate performance could spell election trouble for South Florida Democrats | Opinion

The task for President Joe Biden and Donald Trump at the first presidential debate of 2024 was straightforward: The former had to look in command and mentally apt; the latter “normal” — or less unhinged.

Both failed, but Biden’s failure was more damaging given the stakes. The debate very likely worsened voter concerns about his age and mental acuity. Biden was at times hard to understand and often lost his train of thought; he mumbled, his voice was raspy and he looked spaced out as he listened to his opponent speak.

The only thing Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, had to do was paint a picture of a weak America under Democrats. Between his lies — i.e., his assertion that he had nothing to do with inciting the Jan. 6 riots or that Biden is “destroying” Social Security and Medicare and has “become like a Palestinian” — Trump might have pulled that off.

Not to his own credit — Trump was typical Trump, evading questions and using misinformation. But Biden’s rebukes — even when effective in explaining his policies, such as his efforts to fight the COVID-19 pandemic — were overshadowed by his delivery and missed opportunities on issues he should’ve owned, like abortion.

Biden’s performance did improve after the second half of the debate when he landed zingers like “You’re a whiner” and articulated the danger of Trump’s dislike for NATO and the possibility that Russia could invade Poland if it wins the war in Ukraine — Russia’s Vladimir Putin “is a war criminal,” he said.

But Americans won’t judge the president based on the almost two hours of CNN’s debate. That will happen through post-debate analysis, memes and social media headlines.

Voters already mostly know where both candidates stand on the issues — Thursday was all about performance. The debate was barely over and the coverage of major news outlets focused on Biden’s sluggish showing and chatter that party leaders are talking about an alternative candidate.

Florida effect

Thanks to its abrupt shift to the right, Florida is no longer considered a bellwether state that will decide the presidential election. But there are Democrats running down the Nov. 5 ballot in state and local races whose chances largely rest on enthusiasm — or lack thereof — for Biden and voter turnout.

Based on what happened Thursday, it will be hard for Florida Democrats to convince voters already worried about issues such as inflation — even though it’s cooled down — to be excited to cast a vote for Biden and others. It’s the Trump voters who are fired up — his disregard for the truth aside. Four years after his 2020 loss, Trump continued to complain about “fraud” in elections despite overwhelming evidence that Biden beat him.

That should keep the Democratic Party of Florida’s new leadership under Nikki Fried up at night. The party has launched voter registration efforts, started outreach to Hispanic voters and kept its promise to run a candidate in every legislative race in the state. If the president cannot overcome the perception that he’s not mentally and physically fit to lead in following debates, that’s problematic for the party, especially in South Florida.

Miami-Dade and Broward counties have the largest concentration of voters in the state. Democrats are trying to retake a Florida House district covering Miami Beach that they lost two years ago and a congressional seat they lost in 2020 to U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar. Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, a Democrat, is running for reelection in a nonpartisan race.

These smaller races might be more important than who wins Florida in the presidential contest, given that Trump won the state twice and is favored to carry it again.

Republicans won Miami-Dade for the first time in decades in 2022. Losing the largest county in Florida again in 2024 will be a blow that Democrats will struggle to overcome. Without South Florida, Democrats can kiss goodbye to ever winning statewide races again.

The presidential election is more than four months away. A lot can change before then, but Democrats have a lot of work — and explaining on behalf of Biden — to do.

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