With 12 days to go until Election Day, President Barack Obama still leads in Ohio and Nevada, two must-win swing states for his re-election hopes. Nationally, Governor Mitt Romney maintains the advantage. The possibility of Romney winning the national popular vote but losing to Obama in the electoral college becomes increasingly likely with each new poll.
Ohio
President Obama remains in the lead in this most important of swing states. A new American Research Group (ARG) poll shows Obama with a two-point lead, 49-47 percent, with three percent undecided. The poll of 600 likely voters had a 4 percent margin of error. Obama has enjoyed small but steady leads in Ohio throughout the campaign. In October, out of over two dozen polls, the president has only trailed in three polls and tied in three others.
Florida
Romney continues to lead in Florida. Two new polls both show the state likely to end up in his column on election night. A Rasmussen poll of 750 likely voters had Romney ahead 50-48 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error. And a poll by the Sunshine State News gave Romney a five point advantage, 51-46 percent. The poll of 1,001 likely voters had a 3.1 percent margin of error. Since the first presidential debate, Romney has led consistently in Florida, winning all but two polls in October.
Nevada
The latest Gravis Marketing poll of Nevada confirms President Obama maintains a small advantage. In a poll of 955 likely voters, Obama led Romney by one point, 50-49 percent. The poll had a 3.2 percent margin of error. Obama has had a small but steady lead in Nevada for most of October, averaging 2.5 percent ahead of Romney according to the Real Clear Politics polling average.
Iowa
Gravis Marketing also had welcome news for Obama in Iowa. Obama led Romney by four points, 50-46 percent. The survey of 517 likely voters had a 4.3 percent margin of error. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama has an average lead of 2.3 percent over Romney, and has polled ahead of the former governor in most polls of Iowa during this election cycle.
New Hampshire
The Granite State continues to bounce between the candidates. The latest poll, conducted by New England College, shows Obama with a three-point advantage, 49-46 percent. The poll surveyed 571 likely voters with a 4.1 percent margin of error. Earlier this week, Rasmussen found Romney ahead by 2 percent. Neither candidate has been able to sustain a lead in New Hampshire in October, with the lead changing hands five times in the last three weeks.
National Polls
Romney continues to lead in national polls, ahead in three out of four polls released today. A poll by ABC News and the Washington Post gave Romney a one point lead, 49-48 percent. The poll surveyed 1,382 likely voters with a 3 percent margin of error. The Investor's Business Daily Tracking Poll again had Obama in the lead by two points, 47-45 percent. The poll of 957 likely voters had a 3.5 percent margin of error. In the major national tracking polls, Romney continued to hold the advantage. In the Gallup Seven Day Tracking Poll, Romney's lead increased to five points, 51-46 percent, a two-point gain from yesterday. The Rasmussen Three Day Tracking Poll was unchanged, with Romney ahead by three points, 50-47 percent. Romney has led in both tracking polls for much of October.
