ANALYSIS | President Barack Obama has rebounded somewhat in the polls, with his best approval ratings in several months. Is this rebound due the good recent economic news? Or is a December boost in surveys what most presidents get?
It was not that long ago that pundits were downgrading Obama's poll numbers. In Stephanie Condon's article, "Grim economic outlook weighs down Obama approval rating," with CBS News on December 9, she writes "Less than one year out from Election Day 2012, voters remain overwhelmingly pessimistic about the economy, and their concerns are taking a toll on President Obama's re-election chances. Just 41 percent of Americans think Mr. Obama has performed his job well enough to be elected to a second term, whereas 54 percent don't think so."
Contrast those results from Julie Pace's article "Obama on political high, but momentum hard to keep" for the Associated Press (posted on Yahoo News on December 23). She writes "Obama looked like a president in command of the stage again, for now." It documents how Obama outdueled the Republicans during the payroll tax debate, compromising on some things and standing firm on others.
In fact, the president's approval ratings have rebounded. In Yahoo's The Week, the article "President Obama's rising approval rating: 4 theories" from December 21 found that Obama is now up to an approval rating of 49 percent, with higher approval than disapproval ratings for the first time in several months.
Pace, The Week, and even CBS speculated on why Obama's political fortunes have improved. They cite his battles with House Republicans, his populism, his tough stands that appeals to his base, or possibly the economic rebound (unemployment is back under nine percent and down in nearly every state).
But could there be another factor that is driving Obama's comeback? Hey, it's Christmas! Folks are generally in a happy mood, shopping, receiving gifts, attending parties, kissing under the Mistletoe, and traveling to see loved ones. Perhaps that phone call from the pollster asking about the president doesn't get the negative response one would expect any other time during the year.
To test whether presidents get a "Christmas bonus" in their approval ratings during the holidays, I examine Gallup Poll numbers for presidents from 1992 to 2003, comparing the average of all December approval ratings to the average from the entire year. For the 12 years, only seven cases had higher holiday numbers. The average for the whole year for presidents was 56.6 percent. For December, presidents averaged a 57.952 rating. A difference of means test revealed that this is not a significant gap.
So if the holidays aren't pushing up Obama's numbers, what could it be? After all, the economic numbers were improving before the CBS poll. Obama didn't win the payroll tax debate so much as he put off any tough decisions for a few months. He talked a populist game, but didn't tax millionaires. And he didn't appeal to supporters when he compromised on the Keystone XL project, which could anger environmentalists.
So why is Obama doing better? A lot of it is coming from a very unappealing set of alternatives in the form of Republican candidates for president which make Obama look pretty good. For years, Obama has had to run against himself. Now, as we get a clearer idea of the alternative, Obama is inching back up toward 50 percent, and ahead of his rivals, even in the Rasmussen Reports. And the GOP feeding frenzy is providing the real Christmas bonus for Obama, not the holidays.
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