Obama leads in two national polls, and is substantially in the front in Michigan. Here's our gide to today's polls and why they matter.
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Findings: In a new poll Obama leads 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters and 52 percent to 41 percent among registered voters. He also leads registered men 51 percent to 41 percent — by just two points fewer than the amount he leads among registered women. Pollster: Langer Research Associates for Esquire/Yahoo! News Methodology: Telephone poll of 1,002 adults September 7 through 10 with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points for the full sample, +/-4.5 percentage points for registered voters, and +/- percentage points for likely voters. Why it matters: Tom Kludt at Talking Points Memo bills this as "the latest evidence that Obama is riding momentum from the Democratic National Convention." The demographics however also resemble a trend noted by Niall Stanage in The Hill that Obama is gaining momentum among male voters, something which could be devastating for Romney's strategy. Caveat: As Kludt notes: the "sub-groups are all a part of the registered voter pool, as opposed to the narrower sample of likely voters."
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Findings: Obama and Biden take a 5-point edge in a new Fox News poll 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. A poll from August showed Romney-Ryan with a one point lead. Pollster: Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News Methodology: Telephone interviews of 1,224 registered voters including 1,056 likely voters September 9 through 11 with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. Why it matters: Brett LoGiurato at Business Insider called this a "huge post-convention bounce." And, on Twitter, The Wall Street Journal's Neil King wrote that Obama's "bump looking more durable." Fox News points out that post-conventions the demographics of independent voters have changed: they supported Romney by 10 points with 26 percent undecided before, and after Obama by 5 with 17 percent undecided. Meanwhile, the Washington Examiner's Byron York pointed out the advancement Obama has made since June when it comes to voters thinking he's better at "improving jobs and the economy" — the two are now tied, whereas in June Romney held a seven-point lead. Caveat: Fox points out that the "president’s advantage is within the poll’s margin of sampling error."
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Findings: Obama leads Romney by 10 points in Michigan: 47 percent to 37 percent. Pollster: EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press, WXYZ-TV and other TV stations Methodology: Poll of 600 likely voters September 8 through 11 with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Why it matters: A poll taken last month by EPIC-MRA gave Obama only a three point lead in Michigan. Now Obama's in a healthy lead, something closer to what national polls had been showing in the state, according to an August blog post from Nate Silver. Emily Schulteis at Politico writes: "Michigan, the state Romney grew up in, is one his team would like to see in play in November. Most polling out of the state, though, gives Obama the advantage -- and this poll brings him into double-digit territory, meaning a win for Romney there looks even more like an uphill battle." Caveat: Todd Spangler and Kathleen Gray writing for the Detroit Free Press points out "Romney's ties to Michigan mean it's nearly impossible -- and possibly foolhardy -- for his campaign to even consider a publicized pullout from the state, as executed four years ago in early October by McCain's campaign -- a move that even his running mate, then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, questioned."
- Politics & Government