The topic du jour is whether the price of oil has found a floor around the $49 to $50 a barrel level. The answer to this question may provide a very big clue as to when investors can expect a notable rebound in energy stocks. The problem, says Scott Fearon, president of Crown Capital Management, is nobody has that answer. “I can’t predict the price of the commodity and I would dare say almost nobody can.”

A batch of Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs (GS), spent the latter part of 2014 chasing the price of oil down with little success at pinpointing Wednesday’s price which is hovering at the $50 (CLH15.NYM) a barrel level. 

Related: Oil is entering its most bullish season of the year

While picking a price point for oil may be a fool’s game, picking the best energy stocks is a lot easier says Fearon. “This would be a great entry point for the major integrated oil companies that pay nice dividends.” The behemoths like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), which are also Dow (^DJI) members, pay dividends of 3% to nearly 4%. ConocoPhillips (COP) is even higher at 4.3%.

As for the smaller, lesser known energy companies, Fearon says steer clear for now. “John Q public should not be messing around trying to invest in a Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) or any of the other smaller exploration companies.” Over the past 12-months, Goodrich Petroleum shares have declined 82%. The company is expected to report quarterly results on February 17th. Calls to the company to confirm that date were not returned as of late Wednesday.

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Fearon also detailed what could be a worst case scenario for some of the debt laden, independent players. “The smaller ones could actually go broke if oil stays here or at $45 a barrel for the next year or two.”

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