Oscar Best Picture Race: Critics vs. The Academy
This year's best picture nominees
With the February 22nd date of this year's Academy Awards ceremony fast approaching, it's time to take a quick look at this year's best picture race—as well as those from the past two decades—to see where critics and Oscar voters diverge.
First, as a recap, here are this year's best picture nominees:
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won *
Boyhood 100 BFCA Bos Chi LA Lon NY Tor
Selma 89
Birdman 88
The Grand Budapest Hotel 88 OFCS SE
Whiplash 88
The Imitation Game 73
American Sniper 72
The Theory of Everything 72
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The LEGO Movie 83
Gone Girl 79
A Most Violent Year 79 NBR
Guardians of the Galaxy 76
Nightcrawler 76
Goodbye to Language 75 NatSoc
* Key to critic awards: BFCA = Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice Awards), Bos = Boston Society of Film Critics, Chi = Chicago Film Critics Association, LA = Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Lon = London Film Critics' Circle, NatSoc = National Society of Film Critics, NBR = National Board of Review, NY = New York Film Critics Circle, OFCS = Online Film Critics Society, SE = Southeastern Film Critics Association, Tor = Toronto Film Critics Association
If Boyhood captures this year's best picture trophy as widely expected, it will mark the second year in a row that Academy voters have opted for the year's best-reviewed film. That, however, is not the norm. More often than not, the best picture Oscar does not go to the critics' favorite movie of the year. In fact, those films don't always get nominated by the Academy. And, as you can see below in our quick look back at the last two decades of best picture nominees, having the best reviews among just the nominated films isn't even enough to guarantee a win.
Previous years: The last 20 best picture races
According to the data below, the year's overall highest-scoring (i.e., best-reviewed) film ...
Has won best picture in just 3 of the 20 years (15%)
Has been nominated but did not win best picture in 7 of the 20 years (35%)
Was not nominated for best picture in 10 of the 20 years (50%)
Though it does not apply this year (since Boyhood, the year's highest-scoring film, was nominated), in the 10 years when the high-scoring overall film was not under consideration for best picture, the Oscar went to the highest-scoring nominee just 3 times (30%). The Oscar has actually been awarded to the lowest-scoring (worst-reviewed) nominee three times as well.
Since the best picture nominee pool was expanded six years ago, no film below fourth place among the nominees (ranked by Metascore) has won the Oscar. And, in the same period, the lowest winning Metascore was Argo's 86. In other words, if you were thinking of picking American Sniper, The Imitation Game, or The Theory of Everything in your Oscar pool, you may want to reconsider.
Of course, what stands out the most when looking at past years is that Academy voters and film critics appear to be two very distinct groups, and there is no predicting when their tastes will overlap. A high Metascore is no guarantee of victory; nor are previous awards handed out by various critic groups. (See The Social Network four years ago, which swept nearly every major award but could not grab the Oscar.) What's especially striking is the number of great films that never even get nominated, including numerous titles that have scored 90 or higher.
See for yourself: Below are each year's best picture nominees, ranked by Metascore from best- to worst-reviewed. The Oscar best picture winner each year is marked with a star (
), while each year's highest-scoring film is marked with a
.
2014 (86th) Academy Awards (Films released in 2013)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won *
12 Years a Slave
97 BFCA Bos Chi Lon OFCS SE
Gravity 96 LA
Her 91 LA NBR
American Hustle 90 NY
Nebraska 86
Dallas Buyers Club 84
Captain Phillips 83
Philomena 76
The Wolf of Wall Street 75
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Before Midnight 94
Inside Llewyn Davis 92 NatSoc Tor
All Is Lost 87
* Key to critic awards: BFCA = Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice Awards), Bos = Boston Society of Film Critics, Chi = Chicago Film Critics Association, LA = Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Lon = London Film Critics' Circle, NatSoc = National Society of Film Critics, NBR = National Board of Review, NY = New York Film Critics Circle, OFCS = Online Film Critics Society, SE = Southeastern Film Critics Association, Tor = Toronto Film Critics Association
85th Academy Awards (2012 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
Zero Dark Thirty
95 Bos Chi NBR NY
Amour 94 LA Lon NatSoc
Argo
86 BFCA OFCS SE
Beasts of the Southern Wild 86
Lincoln 86
Django Unchained 81
Silver Linings Playbook 81
Life of Pi 79
Les Misérables 63
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The Master 86 Tor
Moonrise Kingdom 84
Looper 84
84th Academy Awards (2011 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
The Artist
89 BFCA Bos Lon NY
Moneyball 87
The Tree of Life 85 Chi OFCS Tor
The Descendants 84 LA SE
Hugo 83 NBR
Midnight in Paris 81
War Horse 72
The Help 62
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close 46
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
A Separation
95
Take Shelter 85
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 85
Certified Copy 82
Beginners 81
Melancholia 80 NatSoc
Drive 78
Bridesmaids 75
83rd Academy Awards (2010 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
The Social Network
95 BFCA Bos Chi LA Lon NatSoc NBR NY OFCS SE Tor
Toy Story 3 92
Winter's Bone 90
The King's Speech
88
The Kids Are All Right 86
127 Hours 82
True Grit 80
Black Swan 79
The Fighter 79
Inception 74
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
A Prophet 90 Lon
Animal Kingdom 83
Blue Valentine 81
Another Year 80
82nd Academy Awards (2009 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
The Hurt Locker
94 BFCA Bos Chi LA NatSoc NY OFCS
Up 88
An Education 85
Avatar 83
Up in the Air 83 NBR SE
District 9 81
Precious 79
A Serious Man 79
Inglourious Basterds 69 Tor
The Blind Side 53
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Crazy Heart 83
Fantastic Mr. Fox 83
In the Loop 83
The White Ribbon 82
The Messenger 77
A Single Man 77
81st Academy Awards (2008 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
Slumdog Millionaire
86 BFCA Bos NBR
Milk 84 NY SE
Frost/Nixon 80
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 70
The Reader 58
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days
97
WALL-E 94 Bos Chi LA OFCS
Waltz With Bashir 91 NatSoc
Happy-Go-Lucky 84
Hunger 82 Tor
Rachel Getting Married 82
Tell No One 82
The Wrestler 81 Lon
Wendy and Lucy 80 Tor
Iron Man 79
The Visitor 79
80th Academy Awards (2007 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
There Will Be Blood 92 LA NatSoc
No Country for Old Men
91 BFCA Bos Chi Lon NBR NY OFCS SE Tor
Atonement 85
Michael Clayton 82
Juno 81
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Ratatouille
96
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly 92
Persepolis 90
Once 88
Away from Her 88
The Bourne Ultimatum 85
The Savages 85
Knocked Up 85
Sweeney Todd 83
Eastern Promises 82
79th Academy Awards (2006 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
The Queen 91 Tor
Letters From Iwo Jima 89 LA NBR
The Departed
86 BFCA Bos Chi SE
Little Miss Sunshine 80
Babel 69
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Pan's Labyrinth
98 NatSoc
United 93 90 Lon NY OFCS
Borat 89
The Lives of Others 89
Half Nelson 85
Children of Men 84
Old Joy 84
Volver 84
Casino Royale 81
Dreamgirls 76
78th Academy Awards (2005 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
Capote 88 NatSoc
Brokeback Mountain 87 BFCA Bos LA Lon NY SE
Good Night, and Good Luck 80 NBR
Munich 74
Crash
69 Chi
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The Best of Youth
89
The Constant Gardener 82
Downfall 82
Pride & Prejudice 82
The Squid and the Whale 82
A History of Violence 81 OFCS Tor
King Kong 81
Syriana 76
77th Academy Awards (2004 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
Sideways
94 BFCA Bos Chi LA Lon NY SE Tor
Million Dollar Baby
86 NatSoc
The Aviator 77
Ray 73
Finding Neverland 67 NBR
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Before Sunset 90
The Incredibles 90
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind 89 OFCS
Maria Full of Grace 87
Kill Bill: Vol. 2 83
Vera Drake 83
Hotel Rwanda 79
The Motorcycle Diaries 75
76th Academy Awards (2003 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
LOTR: The Return of the King
94 BFCA Chi NY OFCS SE
Lost in Translation 89 Tor
Mystic River 84 Bos NBR
Master and Commander: Far Side of the World 81 Lon
Seabiscuit 72
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The Triplets of Belleville 91
American Splendor 90 LA NatSoc
Finding Nemo 90
The School of Rock 82
A Mighty Wind 81
The Station Agent 81
City of God 79
Dirty Pretty Things 78
75th Academy Awards (2002 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 88 OFCS
The Pianist 85 Bos NatSoc
Chicago
82 BFCA
The Hours 81 NBR SE
Gangs of New York 72
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Spirited Away
94
Bloody Sunday 90
Y Tu Mamá También 88
Talk to Her 86
About Schmidt 85 LA Lon
Far From Heaven 84 Chi NY
The Quiet American 84
Adaptation. 83 Tor
Rabbit-Proof Fence 80
Minority Report 80
The Piano Teacher 79
Punch-Drunk Love 78
74th Academy Awards (2001 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring 92
Gosford Park 90
In the Bedroom 86 LA
A Beautiful Mind
72 BFCA
Moulin Rouge! 66 Lon NBR
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Werckmeister Harmonies
92
Ghost World 88
In the Mood for Love 85
Lantana 84
No Man's Land 84
Shrek 84
Amores Perros 83
Waking Life 82
Mulholland Drive 81 Bos Chi NatSoc NY OFCS
Memento 80 OFCS SE Tor
The Royal Tenenbaums 75
Black Hawk Down 74
73th Academy Awards (2000 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
93 LA Tor
Traffic 86 NY
Erin Brockovich 73
Chocolat 64
Gladiator
64 BFCA
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Yi yi: A One and a Two... 92 NatSoc
Almost Famous 90 Bos Chi OFCS SE
Chicken Run 88
The Wind Will Carry Us 86
Before Night Falls 85
You Can Count on Me 85
High Fidelity 79
Best in Show 78
Pollock 77
The Virgin Suicides 76
Billy Elliot 74
Cast Away 73
Wonder Boys 73
Quills 70 NBR
72nd Academy Awards (1999 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
American Beauty
86 BFCA Chi Lon NBR OFCS SE
The Insider 84 LA
The Cider House Rules 75
The Sixth Sense 64
The Green Mile 61
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Topsy-Turvy
90 NatSoc NY
Being John Malkovich 90 Lon NatSoc
Toy Story 2 88
All About My Mother 87
Boys Don't Cry 86
The Straight Story 86
The Iron Giant 85
Election 83
Three Kings 82 Bos
Magnolia 77 Tor
The Talented Mr. Ripley 76
The Matrix 73
71st Academy Awards (1998 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
Saving Private Ryan
90 BFCA Chi LA Lon NY OFCS SE Tor
Shakespeare in Love
87
The Thin Red Line 78
Elizabeth 75
Life Is Beautiful 59
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The Truman Show 90
Rushmore 86
Out of Sight 85 Bos NatSoc
A Simple Plan 82
Happiness 81
Central Station 80
Affliction 79
The Last Days of Disco 76
Bulworth 75
Gods and Monsters 74 NBR
70th Academy Awards (1997 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
L.A. Confidential
90 BFCA Bos Chi LA Lon NatSoc NBR NY OFCS SE
The Full Monty 75
Titanic
74
Good Will Hunting 70
As Good As It Gets 67
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The Sweet Hereafter 90 Tor
Boogie Nights 85
The Apostle 83
In the Company of Men 81
Donnie Brasco 76
Grosse Pointe Blank 76
The Full Monty 75
The Ice Storm 72
69th Academy Awards (1996 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
Secrets & Lies
91 LA
Shine 87 NBR
The English Patient
87
Fargo 85 BFCA Chi Lon NY SE
Jerry Maguire 77
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Sling Blade 84
Welcome to the Dollhouse 83
Trainspotting 83 Bos
Flirting with Disaster 81
Big Night 80
The People vs. Larry Flynt 79
Lone Star 78
Breaking the Waves 76 NatSoc
68th Academy Awards (1995 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
Sense and Sensibility 84 BFCA Bos NBR
Babe 83 Lon NatSoc
Il Postino 81
Apollo 13 77 Chi SE
Braveheart
68
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Crumb
93
Toy Story 92
To Die For 86
Leaving Las Vegas 82 LA NY
Get Shorty 82
Dead Man Walking 80
Before Sunrise 77
The Usual Suspects 77
Heat 76
The Brothers McMullen 73
Casino 73
The City of Lost Children 73
67th Academy Awards (1994 films)
Best Picture Nominees Metascore Major Critic Awards Won
Pulp Fiction 94 Bos LA NatSoc NBR SE
Quiz Show 88 NY
Forrest Gump
82 NBR
Four Weddings and a Funeral 81
The Shawshank Redemption 80
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Hoop Dreams
98 Chi
Little Women 87
The Last Seduction 85
The Lion King 83
Four Weddings and a Funeral 81
More Oscar coverage to come
Check back later this week as we take a closer look at predicting the key Oscar races. Next week, just before the ceremony, we'll reveal our users' predictions and sort through the experts' picks in all 24 categories. In the meantime, give us your own Oscar picks, and review this year's nominees.
